risk decision
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2022 ◽  
pp. 147788
Author(s):  
Fabiola Alejandra Iribe-Burgos ◽  
Pedro Manuel Cortes ◽  
Juan Pablo García-Hernández ◽  
Carolina Sotelo-Tapia ◽  
Marisela Hernández-González ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Guo Yu ◽  
Haitao Li ◽  
Yanru Chen ◽  
Linqing Liu ◽  
Dongming Zhang

During the development of complex gas reservoirs, the risk decision-making problem often emerges. Thus, the study on risk assessment is an important tool used to identify potential hazards and create appropriate avoidance measures accordingly. Based on the analysis of seven types of risk factors in gas reservoir development planning, this paper aims to clarify the logical relationship between the risk factors in the strategic planning of natural gas development. The comprehensive research on target risks in the gas reservoir development planning based on stochastic simulation was carried out. The “probability curve scanning method” was used to evaluate objective risk factors, while the decision-making risk factors were evaluated using the “probability curve displacement method.” According to the realization probability and dispersion degree of the planned target combined with the risk grade evaluation matrix, the planning target evaluation risk grade was implemented. Moreover, the planning unit risk grade evaluation was obtained at different stages. Regarding the specific production capacity conditions in gas wells (horizontal and vertical wells) and gas reservoir water invasion, the probability method with Monte Carlo stochastic simulation was used to calculate the production and water invasion volumes. The established decision-making risk technology for gas reservoir development, along with the associated supporting procedures, can be used to evaluate the risks of reservoir development planning, production, and water invasion.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aifang Jia ◽  
xinyue Guo ◽  
Shuicheng Tian

Abstract Mental fatigue increases risk-taking behavior. Using data collected between June 15 and August 6, 2020, this study investigates the impact of miners’ mental fatigue on risk decision-making to improve risk prevention and prediction abilities, and to reduce the occurrence of coal mine safety accidents. A total of 274 and 33 people participated in the preliminary and formal experiments, respectively. The participants, who were coal miners, visited the lab thrice to complete the pre-experiment, Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). On the BART, mental fatigue displayed a significantly positive association with risk preference. On the IGT, as mental fatigue increased, net scores continuously decreased, while the frequency of making unfavorable decisions and the probability of taking risks increased. The BART value had no or weak correlations with the net score. Results suggest that mental fatigue leads to an increasing propensity to take risks. Therefore, regarding coal mine safety management, further attention is necessary concerning miners’ mental health, addressing mental fatigue, increasing rest time, and reducing night work. Furthermore, reasonable diet, improved working environments, and a positive attitude toward work should be promoted to reduce or eliminate mental fatigue and avoid decision-making errors that could cause accidents.


Author(s):  
Dawei Wang ◽  
Mengmeng Zhou ◽  
Liping Zhu ◽  
Yixin Hu ◽  
Yuxi Shang

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