Development and validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19 patients

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID–19 and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalized COVID–19 patients. Methods: This study is part of the multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID–19 Registry. A total of 5,212 adult COVID–19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. We evaluated four categories of predictor variables: (1) demographic data; (2) comorbidities and conditions at admission; (3) laboratory exams within 24 h; and (4) the need for mechanical ventilation at any time during hospitalization. Variable selection was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. The accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC). Risk groups were proposed based on predicted probabilities: non-high (up to 14.9%), high (15.0 to 49.9%), and very high risk (≥ 50.0%). Results: The median age of the model–derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47–70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalization. The validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in–hospital mortality. Thirty–two variables were tested and four important predictors of the need for KRT during hospitalization were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male gender, higher creatinine at admission, and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC = 0.929; 95% CI 0.918–0.939) and validation (AUROC = 0.927; 95% CI 0.911–0.941) cohorts an good overall performance in both cohorts (Brier score: 0.057 and 0.056, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://www.mmcdscore.com/). Conclusion: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalized COVID–19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.

Abnormality Detection and Failure Prediction Using Explainable Bayesian Deep Learning: Methodology and Case Study of Real-World Gas Turbine Anomalies

: Mistrust, amplified by numerous artificial intelligence (AI) related incidents, has caused the energy and industrial sectors to be amongst the slowest adopter of AI methods. Central to this issue is the black-box problem of AI, which impedes investments and fast becoming a legal hazard for users. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm to tackle this challenge. Being the backbone of the industry, the prognostic and health management (PHM) domain has recently been introduced to XAI. However, many deficiencies, particularly lack of explanation assessment methods and uncertainty quantification, plague this young field. In this paper, we elaborate a framework on explainable anomaly detection and failure prognostic employing a Bayesian deep learning model to generate local and global explanations from the PHM tasks. An uncertainty measure of the Bayesian model is utilized as marker for anomalies expanding the prognostic explanation scope to include model’s confidence. Also, the global explanation is used to improve prognostic performance, an aspect neglected from the handful of PHM-XAI publications. The quality of the explanation is finally examined employing local accuracy and consistency properties. The method is tested on real-world gas turbine anomalies and synthetic turbofan data failure prediction. Seven out of eight of the tested anomalies were successfully identified. Additionally, the prognostic outcome showed 19% improvement in statistical terms and achieved the highest prognostic score amongst best published results on the topic.

The Combination of Inflammation and Nutrition Factors Reinforces the Prognostic Prediction for Stage III Colorectal Cancer Patients After Curative Resection

Purpose Inflammation and nutritional status are known to be associated with the prognosis of several malignancies. Herein, we attempted to develop inflammation–nutrition scores and predict the prognosis of stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods This retrospective study included 262 patients with stage III CRC who underwent curative surgery and were divided into two groups: a training set (TS) of 162 patients and a validation set (VS) of 100 patients. In the TS, clinicopathological factors were tested using a Cox regression model, and the Kansai prognostic score (KPS) was assessed by 1 point each for <3.5 g/dL albumin level, >450 monocyte counts, and <1.65 × 105 platelet counts, which were associated with disease-free survival (DFS). Using KPS, DFS and overall survival (OS) were validated in VS. Results The C-indices of KPS to predict DFS and OS in TS were 0.707 and 0.772. It was validated in VS that the C-indices of KPS to predict DFS and OS were 0.618 and 0.708, respectively. A high KPS was a significant predictor of DFS and OS. Conclusion KPS serves as a new model for the prognosis of patients with stage III CRC.

Prognostic value of preoperative high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score in advanced colon cancer: a retrospective observational study

Background Several studies have demonstrated that the preoperative Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and modified GPS (mGPS) reflected the prognosis in patients undergoing curative surgery for colorectal cancer. However, there are no reports on long-term prognosis prediction using high-sensitivity mGPS (HS-GPS) in colorectal cancer. Therefore, this study aimed to calculate the prognostic value of preoperative HS-GPS in patients with colon cancer. Methods A cohort of 595 patients with advanced resectable colon cancer managed at our institution was analysed retrospectively. HS-GPS, GPS, and mGPS were evaluated for their ability to predict prognosis based on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Results In the univariate analysis, HS-GPS was able to predict the prognosis with significant differences in OS but was not superior in assessing RFS. In the multivariate analysis of the HS-GPS model, age, pT, pN, and HS-GPS of 2 compared to HS-GPS of 0 (2 vs 0; hazard ratio [HR], 2.638; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.046–6.650; P = 0.04) were identified as independent prognostic predictors of OS. In the multivariate analysis of the GPS model, GPS 2 vs 0 (HR, 1.444; 95% CI, 1.018–2.048; P = 0.04) and GPS 2 vs 1 (HR, 2.933; 95% CI, 1.209–7.144; P = 0.017), and in that of the mGPS model, mGPS 2 vs 0 (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.066–2.140; P = 0.02) were independent prognostic predictors of OS. In each classification, GPS outperformed HS-GPS in predicting OS with a significant difference in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In the multivariate analysis of the GPS model, GPS 2 vs 0 (HR, 1.537; 95% CI, 1.190–1.987; P = 0.002), and in that of the mGPS model, pN, CEA were independent prognostic predictors of RFS. Conclusion HS-GPS is useful for predicting the prognosis of resectable advanced colon cancer. However, GPS may be more useful than HS-GPS as a prognostic model for advanced colon cancer.

Inflammation-based Indexes Upon Adjuvant Chemotherapy Initiation as a Predictor of Relapse After Curative Resection of Colorectal Cancer With an Oxaliplatin-based Regimen

Background/Aim: We investigated the clinical efficacy of inflammation-based indexes in predicting unfavourable relapse-free survival (RFS) in patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer (CRC) receiving oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 45 patients who underwent curative resection for stage II/III CRC followed by oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy after 8 weeks. Upon adjuvant chemotherapy initiation, all patients were evaluated for lymphocyte count (LC), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), after which their correlation with relapse was analysed. Results: Univariate analysis identified LC <1,350/mm3, NLR ≥2.03, LMR <5.15, PLR ≥209, mGPS 2, and early discontinuation of chemotherapy within two months as significant risk factors for RFS. Multivariate analysis identified LMR <5.15, PLR > 209 and mGPS 2 as significant independent risk factors for unfavourable RFS. Conclusion: Measurement of LMR, PLR, and mGPS upon adjuvant therapy initiation can be a useful tool for predicting recurrence after curative surgery for stage II/III CRC.

Naples Prognostic Score to Predict Postoperative Complications After Colectomy for Diverticulitis

Background The Naples Prognostic Score (NPS) has proven efficacy as a prognostic tool for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for neoplastic diseases. However, the role of the NPS score in inflammatory surgical diseases has not yet been studied. We aimed to evaluate NPS predictive value in patients undergoing colectomy due to diverticulitis. Methods A single-center retrospective study including all patients who underwent colectomy for diverticulitis between July 2008 and March 2020 was established. Patients' demographics, clinical and surgical data were recorded and analyzed. Patients were scored on a scale of 0-4 and received one point for preoperation albumin <4 g/dL, cholesterol ≤180 mg/dL, Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio >2.96, and Lymphocyte to Monocyte ≤4.44. Results Out of 3292 patients admitted because of diverticulitis during the study period, 159 patients (4.83%) underwent colectomy. Of those patients, fifty patients were eligible for NPS analysis. 35 patients (70%) were females with a mean age of 62.81 ± 14.51. Thirty-two (64%) patients underwent an elective operation. The postoperative complications rate was 36% (N = 18). The mortality rate was 6% (N = 3). ROC showed a strong association between the NPS and mortality (area = .88, P = .03) and wound infection (area = .78, P = .01). In patients who underwent urgent surgery, there was an association between NPS and re-operation ( P = .04). There was a correlation between NPS and Clavien-Dindo score (Spearman’s coefficient = .284, P = .045). Conclusions/Discussion The Naples prognostic score is an effective tool for predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing colectomy for diverticulitis. It may assist the surgeon in deciding on extent of the operation for diverticulitis and in elective cases also on timing.

Does the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score aid in the management of patients undergoing surgery for a soft-tissue sarcoma?

Aims The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176.

Preoperative Inflammatory Response to Esophageal Cancer Is More Reliable Prognostic Factor in Patients Received Esophagectomy

Background: Inflammation and nutrition are closely related to the progression of gastrointestinal malignancies. We aimed to explore the potential of preoperative inflammation-based or nutrition-based biomarkers as predictors of survival in patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) using multivariate Cox analysis.Methods: We included 122 patients with resectable ESCC (stages I–IV) in the study. We assessed the inflammation-based modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), nutrition-based modified controlling nutritional status (mCONUT) score, CRP(C-reactive protein),serum albumin, lymphocyte counts, and total cholesterol. The relationships of these biomarkers with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated. Three Cox model were performed for single parameters(CRP, albumin, lymphocyte, total cholesterol), for mCONUT and mGPS,and for clinicopathological factors.Results: The cut-off values for CRP, albumin, and mCONUT measured using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.3, 3.5, and 4, respectively. Patients with high mGPS and high mCONUT scores were significantly associated with shorter OS and RFS (p < 0.05).Multivariate Cox analysis showed that mGPS,pStage,tumor location were independent prognostic factors both FRS and OS. Also, Cox analysis for single parameters showed that preoperative CRP, lymphocyte counts were independent prognostic factors for RFS and albumin was prognostic factor for OS.Conclusions: Preoperative inflammation-based mGPS is most reliable independent prognostic factor in patients with resectable ESCC. Suppression of preoperative inflammation can be improved nutritional status and may improve the prognosis in these patients.

Clinical and radiological characteristics of acute pulmonary embolus in relation to 28-day and 6-month mortality

Background Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) exhibit a wide spectrum of clinical and laboratory features when presenting to hospital and pathophysiologic mechanisms differentiating low-risk and high-risk PE are poorly understood. Objectives To investigate the prognostic value of clinical, laboratory and radiological information that is available within routine tests undertaken for patients with acute PE. Methods Electronic patient records (EPR) of patients who underwent Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiogram (CTPA) scan for the investigation of acute PE during 6-month period (01.01.2016–30.06.2016) were examined. Data was gathered from EPR for patients that met inclusion criteria and all CTPA scans were re-evaluated. Biochemical thresholds of low-grade and high-grade inflammation, serum CRP >10mg/L and >150mg/L and serum albumin concentrations <35g/L and <25 g/L, were combined in the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score (poGPS) respectively. Neutrophil Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was also calculated. Pulmonary Embolus Severity Index score was calculated. Results Of the total CTPA reports (n = 2129) examined, 245 patients were eligible for inclusion. Of these, 20 (8%) patients had died at 28-days and 43 (18%) at 6-months. Of the 197 non-cancer related presentations, 28-day and 6-month mortality were 3% and 8% respectively. Of the 48 cancer related presentations, 28-day and 6-month mortality were 29% and 58% respectively. On univariate analysis, age ≥65 years (p<0.01), PESI score ≥100(p = <0.001), NLR ≥3(p<0.001) and Coronary Artery Calcification (CAC) score ≥ 6 (p<0.001) were associated with higher 28-day and 6-month mortality. PESI score ≥100 (OR 5.2, 95% CI: 1.1, 24.2, P <0.05), poGPS ≥1 (OR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2–5.0, P = 0.01) and NLR ≥3 (OR 3.7, 95% CI: 1.0–3.4, P <0.05) remained independently associated with 28-day mortality. On multivariate binary logistic regression analysis of factors associated with 6-month mortality, PESI score ≥100 (OR 6.2, 95% CI: 2.3–17.0, p<0.001) and coronary artery calcification score ≥6 (OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1–4.8, p = 0.030) remained independently associated with death at 6-months. When patients who had an underlying cancer diagnosis were excluded from the analysis only GPS≥1 remained independently associated with 6-month mortality (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.2–22.0, p<0.05). Conclusion PESI score >100, poGPS≥1, NLR ≥3 and CAC score ≥6 were associated with 28-day and 6-month mortality. PESI score ≥100, poGPS≥1 and NLR ≥3 remained independently associated with 28-day mortality. PESI score ≥100 and CAC score ≥6 remained independently associated with 6-month mortality. When patients with underlying cancer were excluded from the analysis, GPS≥1 remained independently associated with 6-month mortality. The role of the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) in determining treatment and prognosis requires further study. Routine reporting of CAC scores in CTPA scans for acute PE may have a role in aiding clinical decision-making regarding treatment and prognosis.