Estimands: bringing clarity and focus to research questions in clinical trials

Precise specification of the research question and associated treatment effect of interest is essential in clinical research, yet recent work shows that they are often incompletely specified. The ICH E9 (R1) Addendum on Estimands and Sensitivity Analysis in Clinical Trials introduces a framework that supports researchers in precisely and transparently specifying the treatment effect they aim to estimate in their clinical trial. In this paper, we present practical examples to demonstrate to all researchers involved in clinical trials how estimands can help them to specify the research question, lead to a better understanding of the treatment effect to be estimated and hence increase the probability of success of the trial.

Zoom vs. Google Classroom: Which is likely more effective for supporting students’ learning in mathematics?

[English]: The purpose of this study is to predict the probability of successful mathematics online learning using two platforms; Zoom Meeting and Google Classroom, towards students’ learning outcomes. The sample used was sixty-four grade 11 students. Data was collected through a test on matrix topics and then analyzed using probit regression. The results of the analysis show that the student's probability of success to achieve better learning outcomes using Zoom Meeting is 12.46% higher than Google Classroom. In this case, Zoom Meeting can be used as a virtual face-to-face platform, so that the teaching and learning process can be more communicative and interactive compared to Google Classroom, where its use is limited to the delivery of learning content only. Therefore, online learning using Zoom Meeting in mathematics is more recommended because it has a higher chance of improving students’ learning outcomes. [Bahasa]: Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi peluang keberhasilan pembelajaran daring matematika menggunakan platform Zoom Meeting dan Google Classroom terhadap hasil belajar siswa. Sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 64 siswa kelas XI. Pengambilan data dilakukan dengan tes hasil belajar pada materi matriks kemudian dianalisis menggunakan regresi probit. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, diperoleh peluang sukses siswa terhadap hasil belajar menggunakan platform Zoom Meeting 12,46% lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Google Classroom. Zoom Meeting merupakan platform yang dapat digunakan sebagai sarana tatap muka maya, sehingga pembelajaran dapat lebih komunikatif dan interaktif dibandingkan dengan Google Classroom yang penggunaannya dibatasi untuk penyampaian konten pembelajaran saja. Dengan demikian, pembelajaran daring menggunakan Zoom Meeting lebih direkomendasikan karena berpeluang lebih tinggi untuk meningkatkan hasil belajar matematika siswa.

L’aplication de la Methode Indicametrique a l’Analyse des Projets et Programmes: Cas du Secteur Emploi-Formation en Cote d’Ivoire

Le présent article s’inscrit dans le cadre de notre travail de recherche de thèse de doctorat en gestion de projets portant sur le thème : « Structure du marché du travail en Côte d’Ivoire : une analyse descriptive à la lumière des projets et programmes d’emploi ». A travers cette thématique, vous voulons contribuer à l’amélioration de l’employabilité et de l’insertion des personnes en âges de travailler, notamment les jeunes diplômés. Il s’agit également de promouvoir de nouveaux paradigmes et outils en matière de conception et d’analyse de risques de projets, en plus de ceux déjà existants. En effet, les faibles taux de chômage observés au cours des enquêtes emploi de ces cinq dernières années ( enquêtes emploi 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 et 2019) voilent une résurgence des emplois informels et précaires au détriment des emplois formels. La population au chômage est majoritairement composée de primo demandeurs d’emploi, notamment les diplômés de l’enseignement technique, professionnel ainsi que de l’enseignement supérieur. Ce qui pose d’ailleurs, la question de l’efficacité externe du système national de formation, ainsi que des projets et programmes d’insertion. Pour ce faire, nous avons jugé judicieux de passer en revue une série de treize ( 13) projets mis en œuvre ou en cours de réalisation, en nous servant des outils de la science indicamétrique. Cette discipline a la particularité de mettre en exergue les facteurs susceptibles d’engendrer la performance, l’efficacité et l’efficience d’un projet, en se basant sur les capacités intrinsèques des personnes physiques et morales impliquées dans sa gestion. Au plan méthodologique, nous avons recours à un des outils importants de la science en indicamétrie : la carte capacitaire. Elle comprend un ensemble d’indicateurs qui s’expriment en Valeur Intrinsèque Capacitaire Energétique (VICE) normée. Toute valeur en dessous de la norme est considérée insuffisante ou en déficit. Toute valeur au-dessus de la norme est dite, en excédent. Ainsi, à l’issue des différentes analyses, nous avons abouti aux principaux résultats suivants : (i) la prise en compte des caractéristiques de l’environnement interne et externe des projets accroit leur probabilité de succès, (ii) le choix de la dénomination de tout projet ou programme influence son mode de gestion et (iii) la prise en compte des caractéristiques et des capacités intrinsèques des promoteurs ou gestionnaires des projets dans leur mise en œuvre accroit significativement leur probabilité de succès. This paper is part of the research work for a doctoral thesis in project management titled "Structure of the labor market in Côte d'Ivoire: a descriptive analysis in the light of projects and programs of use”. The objective of this theme is to improve the employability and integration of people of working age, especially young graduates. It also focuses on promoting new paradigms and tools for project design and risk analysis, in addition to existing ones. The low unemployment rates observed during employment surveys over the past five years veil a resurgence of informal and precarious jobs to the detriment of formal jobs. The unemployed population is mainly made up of first-time job seekers, particularly graduates of technical, vocational, and higher education. This raises the question of the external effectiveness of the national training system as well as the integration projects and programs. To answer this question, a series of thirteen (13) projects that were either implemented or in progress was reviewed through the tools of indicametric science. This discipline has the particularity of highlighting the factors that are likely to generate the performance, effectiveness, and efficiency of a project based on the intrinsic capacities of the natural and legal persons involved in its management. As for the methodology, there is recourse to one of the important indicametry tools: the capacity card. It includes a set of indicators which are expressed in standardized Intrinsic Energy Capacitance Value (VICE). Any value below the standard is considered insufficient or in deficit, while any value above the norm is said to be in excess. At the end of the various analysis, the following main results have been achieved: (i) taking into account the characteristics of the internal and external environment of projects increases their probability of success, (ii) the choice of name of any project or program influences its mode of management and (iii) taking into account the characteristics and intrinsic capacities of the promoters or managers of projects in their implementation significantly increases their probability of success.

The Winner Takes it All: Risk Factors and Bayesian Modelling of the Probability of Success in Escaping from Big Cat Predation

The individuals engaged in predation interactions modify their adaptation strategies to improve their efficiency to reach success in the fight for survival. This success is linked to either capturing prey (predator) or escaping (prey). Based on the graphic material available on digital platforms both of public and private access, this research aimed to evaluate the influence of those animal- and environment-dependent factors affecting the probability of successful escape of prey species in case of attack by big cats. Bayesian predictive analysis was performed to evaluate the outcomes derived from such factor combinations on the probability of successful escape. Predator species, age, status at the end of the hunting act, time lapse between first attention towards potential prey and first physical contact, prey species and the relief of the terrain, significantly conditioned (p < 0.05) escape success. Social cooperation in hunting may be more important in certain settings and for certain prey species than others. The most parsimonious model explained 36.5% of the variability in escaping success. These results can be useful to design translatable selective strategies not only seeking to boost predation abilities of domestic felids for pest control, but also, biological antipredator defence in potential domestic prey of big cats.

Learning Outcomes and the Success of Entrepreneurs: The Case of Vietnam

This paper aims to analyze the effect of investing in balanced skills on the probability of success of entrepreneurs within the context of Vietnam. By not taking this possible linkage into account, previous researchers have underestimated the effect of general and specialized skills as learning outcomes from formal schools and higher education institutions on the probability of success of entrepreneurs. Additionally, the effect of balanced skills – a combination of general and special skills – on the probability of success of entrepreneurs in Vietnam does has not attracted much of scholars’ and policy makers’ attention. Data provided by GEM helps this paper analyze the effects of learning outcome and balanced skills on the probability of success of entrepreneurs. The empirical results support the theory of entrepreneurship that invests more first in general, special skills and then balanced skills will increase the chance of success of entrepreneurs.

Determinants of crowdfunding success in central and eastern European countries

As an alternative way of financing, crowdfunding has been growing rapidly since the last financial crisis in 2008. The number of launched projects has increased, but the number of successful projects remains low. Little is known about what leads to success in this field, especially in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries where the determinants of crowdfunding campaign success for projects are not identified. Therefore, the article focuses on identifying determinants of crowdfunding campaign success for projects from CEE countries. Based on the dataset from Kickstarter, consisting of 473 projects from CEE countries, I examine factors influencing the probability of project success. The analyzed sample of projects shows that the number of backers and mean contribution are positively correlated with the probability of campaign success, while a higher project goal lowers the probability of success. Project duration is not a statistically significant success factor.

Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making – doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small – is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.

Analysis of Oscillating Fishing Tool Efficiency for Stuck Assembly Recovery in Field X

As conventional fishing assembly offers a degree of recovery chance, such chance can be increased by utilizing an Oscillating Fishing Tool (OFT). The OFT is a fishing Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) component that delivers low-magnitude; high-frequency oscillation. The continuous motion that the tool provides complements the impact generated by the fishing jar. This paper reviews the successful case history in Field X, which was in fact the first utilization of OFT for a fishing application in the field. Method of analysis involve comparing fishing sequence without and with the OFT. The OFT was used in Offshore Field X to recover a mechanically stuck 550-meter long Tubing Conveyed Perforating Gun assembly inside 9 5/8" casing that could potentially lead to loss of access into the 6 oil reserves candidate perforation zones. Initially the assembly had been stuck for two days, during which conventional fishing BHA was used to retrieve it to no avail, even after jarring for most of that time. OFT was then incorporated in the final fishing BHA and operated in combination with jarring operation. After around twelve hours of oscillating and jarring, the fish was able to be released from the initial stuck point. When tripping the string out, however, the assembly was stuck at high dog-leg severity area near the surface. At that point, in combination with applying substantial overpull, OFT was utilized further to recover the entire string. Upon fish retrieval, it was evident that post detonation, the TCP gun had swelled into 8.6 inches in diameter. In summary, oscillating and jarring for thirty-six cumulative hours successfully released the swelled TCP gun assembly from the stuck occurrences. In conclusion, the operation showed that the OFT serves as a higher level of fishing tool option that offers a particular excitation mode to the stuck assembly. Stuck assembly in a cased hole presents potential loss of oil reserves. Particularly in offshore application, the situation can also be costly. With reduced chance of recovery as time passes by, operation is hindered from being able to proceed to the next completion phase. The case proved OFT to have played an important role in improving fishing probability of success and should be considered as standard fishing BHA in the future.