IMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM (ANFIS) METHOD ON RICE PRICE PREDICTION IN LUBUKLINGGAU CITY

The problem behind this research is the imbalance between the capacity offered and the capacity demanded by the community, resulting in uncontrolled rice prices, so it is necessary to predict rice price in the future to monitor the stability of rice prices in the Lubuklinggau City area. In this study, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method was used to predict future rice prices. The sample used in this study is data on rice price in Lubuklinggau City from January 2016 to December 2020. The result of the prediction of rice price in the Lubuklinggau City area for the next five years. With the accuracy value in rice price predictions based on MSE training, numely 99,9037% and based on the MSE test that is 99,8784%. While the accuracy values of rice price predictions based on MAPE training and testing are 93,2997% and 88,2782%, respectively. For the accuracy value of rice price prediction result based on the MSE and MAPE values respectively namely 99,8935% and 92,9212%. It can be concluded that the ANFIS method is very effectively used for the process of predicting a price or value in the future

Quality determinates of rice price in open bag markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

PurposeWeaknesses in the grades and standards system in low-income countries across Sub-Saharan Africa undermine the transparency of agricultural markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ghana and Mozambique rice is predominately sold in open bags and if rice price does not reflect its quality, then inefficiencies may lead to consumer welfare losses. Importantly, it is possible that impoverished communities are priced out of the market due to inflated and inefficient prices. The objective of this study is to examine determinates of rice price by estimating the impact of selected rice quality attributes on rice prices in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana and Mozambique.Design/methodology/approachWe collected 363 rice samples from open air markets in Bukavu (DRC), Nampula (Mozambique) and across Ghana in 2019. Each rice sample was analyzed in a food science lab for the quality attributes: percentage of chalk and brokens, chalk impact, length and length-to-width ratio. We used multiple regression analysis to estimate if and to what extent quality attributes were the drivers of price.FindingsFindings suggest that there are irregularities in the Ghanaian market for broken rice and that regardless of quality, imported rice is priced higher than domestic rice. In the DRC and Mozambique, our results indicate price is driven by length and length-to-width ratio in the former and length-to-width ratio in the latter.Research limitations/implicationsRice samples were purchased from market vendors and thus consumer preferences for attributes were not revealed.Originality/valueThese results provide valuable insight to policymakers regarding the need for proper labeling and regulation of open bag rice sales in an effort to increase consumer welfare and improve food security.

The impact of el niño southern oscillation and covid-19 on the rice price dynamics in Indonesia: the vector error correction model approach

Half of the world's population makes rice a crop of focus because it has many opportunities in the future. However, there are disruptors for rice development in 2020, which are climate variability and COVID-19 Pandemics. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate variability that can threaten the rice price dynamics. Besides that, COVID-19 also has implications for rice price dynamics. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to empirically study the impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on rice price dynamics and (2) to analyze the effect of COVID-19 pandemics on rice price in Indonesia. The study utilized the vector error correction model (VECM) estimation method and the variables used were sea surface temperature (SST), COVID-19 daily cases, rice price, rice production, and rice price regulation. The result is that El Nino has a positive effect on rice prices, which can increase the price level. The opposite is true also for a La Nina shock. COVID-19 also has a positive impact on the daily cost of rice. The results of this study ought to be of interest to rice producers in Indonesia, as well as processors and intermediaries in the rice markets.

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF PADDY RICE PRICE VARIABILITY IN DASS AND TAFAWA BALEWA LGAS OF BAUCHI STATE, NIGERIA

The study was conducted on the spatial analysis of paddy rice (Oryza sativa) price variability in Dass and Tafawa Balewa LGAs of Bauchi State, Nigeria. Data were collected using questionnaires administered to 120 respondents sampled through random sampling technique. Secondary data were also collected from BSADP Bauchi on monthly prices of paddy rice. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (mean, frequency, ranking and likert scale), pearson product correlation, T-test and ratio to moving average model. It was revealed that the leading causes of spatial rice price variability were spatial variation in supply, high cost of transportation and inadequate market information. There was existence of price integration or perfect price transmission between and among the urban and rural markets during the period of study. The magnitude of paddy rice price variability in the rural markets were higher, and the t-test shows that there was a significant (P < 0.05) difference in price of paddy rice between rural and urban markets. Spatial variation in supply, bad road condition, seasonal variation in supply, inadequate contact with extension agents and low capital outlay were the major constraints militating against paddy rice marketing in the study area. Therefore, it is recommended that Rural feeder roads should be constructed by government, NGOs or individuals to enable easy movement of produce as well as all year round production/supply of rice should be encouraged through provision of fund and inputs by relevant stakeholders to farmers for dry season farming in order to curtail the problem of price variation due to seasonality in production.

TINJAUAN KRITIS TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN HARGA GABAH DAN BERAS DI INDONESIA

<p>The government intervened unhulled rice and rice price policies which requires a large budget and is faced by a trade off between protecting producers and consumers. There is also a rice trading system that has an interest in creating profits. This condition creates obstacles in achieving policy objectives. Objectives of this paper are (1) to analyze the effectiveness of unhulled rice and rice price policies and factors that affect policy effectiveness, (2) to formulate policy recommendations in minimizing side effects. Analysis using secondary data and literature review methods. Results showed that with support of other rice policies, price policy has achieved its goal of stabilizing prices and supporting economic stability. However, it is not yet effective enough to protect farmers' income, affordability of rice prices, and safeguard government rice reserves. Pricing policies need to be carried out selectively with a clear target date and be accompanied by policy instruments for farmer income and food consumption flexibility, as well as encouraging farmer independence. Farmers can be facilitated to choose profitable commodities supported by an information system, market access, credit policies, <em>input</em> subsidies and agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation.</p>

TRANSMISI HARGA GABAH TERHADAP HARGA BERAS: TINJAUAN ARAH, BESARAN DAN LAMA PERUBAHAN

Policies to maintain rice prices are a sensitive policy in Indonesia so that the government controls the rice price tightly in every level of the rice market. To make sure it runs well, the government needs to take into account the magnitude, direction, and speed of transmission of the rice price changes. When these three things can be monitored and controlled well, the success rate of controlling prices is in hand. This study investigates the direction and speed of transmission of changes in grain prices at the farm level to changes in rice prices at various levels of trade. The empirical results utilizing Granger Causality Test and VAR indicate that changes in the price of grain at the farm level significantly cause changes in rice prices at the milling and wholesale levels in a unidirectional way. Meanwhile, there is a piece of additional information where changes in the retail price of rice significantly cause changes in the price of grain at the farm level rather than vice versa. By implementing the IRFs method reveal the transmission’s duration of price change takes place in the short term and long term. Considering these findings, the policy of stabilizing rice prices at the mill and wholesale levels should be implemented immediately when the price of farmers' grain begins to change.

Farm wage and Rice Price dynamics in Bangladesh

Empirical findings explaining the wage-price nexus in Bangladesh are diverse and conflicting. A proper understanding of the relationship between food prices and farm wages is essential for planning policies in support of the wellbeing and food security of the rural poor. In exploring the link between food prices and rising agricultural wages, this study analyzes the dynamic relations between those two by using monthly data from 1994 to 2014. A standard vector error correction model (VECM) is implemented to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between wages and food prices in eight divisions in Bangladesh. In addition, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to estimate the pass-through coefficients and to compare the short-run effects of rice price and urban wage shocks on agricultural wages. We find statistical evidence for a structural break between January 2007 and January 2009 in the relationships of the variables in all divisions. Different to the period until 2007/2009, after the structural break, in six out of eight divisions, rice price shocks do not transmit to the farm wages in the short-run. Moreover, our findings show that in the long-run food prices have become less influential in explaining the changes in farm wages while the influence of urban wages has become stronger in some divisions.

Welfare Effect of Adaptation Policy for Rice Price Variation under Climate Change in Bangladesh

This study was designed to evaluate the welfare effect of the climate adaptation policy for rice price variation in terms of producer surplus, consumer surplus, and net change in social welfare in Bangladesh, using the partial equilibrium model of the adaptation policy. The long-term trend of climate and policy adaptation for climate impact on price variation of the rice in Bangladesh is taken into economic model approach. The base period of this research is 1977-2009 and the extrapolation period is 2010-2030. To execute the designed analysis, the time series data from national and international organization are used. The results for the support price policy show that the total surplus that producers receive is equivalent to USD 1,164 million, substantially higher than the consumer surplus (USD 763 million) during the period 2010–2030. The net change in the social welfare owing to the support price policy is equivalent to –1483 million (USD) during the period 2010–2030. Moreover, analysis of the subsidized price policy shows that the total surplus that consumers receive (USD 1,958 million) is relatively higher than the producer surplus (USD 1,738 million) in the same period. The net change in social welfare owing to the subsidized price policy (–197 million USD) is much higher than that owing to price support –1483 million (USD). Implementing the dual price policy would result in a much higher net change in the society’s welfare (–1185 million USD) compared to that possible through each policy separately. In conclusion, these adaptation and price stabilization policies are recognized to be more useful in mitigating the severe price rise and fall in the future food market, in favour of both producers and consumers. Even though the change in net social welfare is higher, the higher cost of policy budget is imperative to make stable food supply and security.