Abstract
Objective
To explore the risk occurred probability and influencing factors of stroke in followed-up hypertension (HP) patients through the analysis of long-term followed-up cohort data.
Methods
The method of followed-up observation cohort was used to collect the information of 168417 followed-up hypertension patients from 2002 to 2020 in Jiading district in Shanghai. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the risk occurred probability of stroke complications in long-term followed-up HP patients, and the influencing factors were analyzed by Cox proportional risk model.
Results
Among 168417 followed-up hypertension patients, 11143 cases had occurred stroke, and the cumulative occurrence rate of stroke was 6.62% (male was 6.87%, female was 6.37%). With the extension of the years of hypertension, the cumulative risk occurred probability of stroke in HP patients would continue to increasing, and the interval was not equidistant. The total cumulative risk probability of stroke in HP patients was 78.9% (male was 91.0%, female was 70.7%). During the period of hypertension, the risk occurred probability of stroke was not fixed, but fluctuates. There were 4 onset peaks, which were in 8 years (peak value 4.2%), 15 years (peak value 14.0%), 22 years (peak value 6.0%) and 26 years (peak value 13.9%). The highest risk probability of male patients was in 26 years (peak value 23.1%), and the second peak was in 15 years (peak value 15.6%). The highest risk probability of female patients was in 15 years (peak value 12.9%), and the second peak was in 26 years (peak value 8.7%). The risk probability of different sex, BP grad and BMI was different, male was higher than female, grade 3 HP higher than grade 1 and grad 2 HP, thin higher than normal weight. The major influencing factors of stroke complications were age (RR = 2.917, p < 0.001), body mass index (RR = 1.450, p < 0.001), family history of stroke (RR = 1.386, p < 0.001), blood pressure grad (RR = 1.148, p < 0.001), registry age (RR = 1.071, P < 0.001 and family history of hypertension (RR = 1.051, P < 0.001).
Conclusion
The risk occurred probability of stroke among hypertension would continue to increase disproportionately during period of hypertension, and the total cumulative risk probability could finally reach 78.9%. Male was higher than female. Age, BMI, family history (stroke and HP), blood pressure grad and duration of HP were related to the occurrence of stroke complications.