Assessing Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on a Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model

As one of the most developed and competitive metropolitan areas in the world, the contradiction between resource depletion and sustainable development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHMGBA) has become a crucial issue nowadays. This paper analyzed the natural capital utilization patterns in GHMGBA during 2009–2016 based on a three-dimensional ecological footprint model. Ecological carrying capacity intensity (ECintensity) was calculated to optimize the accounting of ecological carrying capacity (EC). Ecological footprint depth (EFdepth) and ECintensity were quantitatively investigated and influencing factors were further explored based on a partial least squares (PLS) model. Results showed that GHMGBA had been operating in a deficit state due to the shortage of natural capital flow and accumulated stock depletion. The highest EFdepth occurred in Macao (17.11~26.21) and Zhongshan registering the lowest (2.42~3.58). Cropland, fossil energy and construction land constituted the most to total ecological deficit, while woodland was continuously in a slight surplus. Natural capital utilization patterns of 11 cities were divided into four categories through hierarchical clustering analysis. Driving factors of EFdepth, ECintensity and three-dimensional ecological deficit (ED3D) were mainly students in primary and secondary education, disposable income, consumption expenditure, R&D personnel and freight volume. Our findings could provide guidance for decision-makers to develop resource utilization portfolios in GHMGBA.

Sustainable Development and Ecological Deficit in the United Arab Emirates

The economy of the United Arab Emirates has ranked 27th in the world for decades, which has supported its human development being rated highest among Arab nations. The country, however, has remained oblivious to its ecological deficit. This study explores sources of this deficit by analyzing three sets of data related to its economic growth, human development, and ecological deficit for 29 years from 1990 to 2019. The results of the data analyses indicate that although an increase in the country’s GDP has a high positive correlation with the nation’s human development, the indicator variables related to both measures have a significant reverse influence on the variability of the values for the 333country’s ecological deficit. Validating the statistical results through interviews with ten authorities from various government ministries and the oil industry shows that, when considering the nation’s finite biocapacity, the genesis of its ecological deficit lies in persistent developments that rely on petroleum revenues and the rapid influx of the millions of migrants who are needed to close the skill gaps of United Arab Emirates (UAE) citizens. Although initiatives to reduce the UAE’s ecological footprint have been in place since 2007, the lack of environmental action plans, policies, and enforcing regulations have resulted in the nation’s failure to move toward achieving sustainable development. This has pushed the country toward the brink of ecological bankruptcy.

Natural Capital Evolution and Driving Forces in Energy-Rich and Ecologically Fragile Regions: A Case Study of Ningxia Province, China

Ningxia Province is rich in energy but fragile in ecology. How to coordinate sustainable utilization of natural capital and the fragile ecological environment is a significant guarantee for social-economic development. This study uses the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint to characterize the utilization status of natural capital flows and stocks in Ningxia Province from 2004 to 2017. Additionally, the driving factors behind changes in the natural capital stock are revealed by the partial least squares method (PLS). The results are as follows: (1) From 2004 to 2017, ecological footprint increased rapidly in Ningxia Province at an annual rate of 4.52%, resulting in a increase of the ecological deficit from 1.64 to 3.85 gha/cap at an annual rate of 6.8%, among which, Yinchuan city and Shizuishan city had the largest ecological deficit, while Guyuan city basically maintained ecological surplus. The fossil energy land and cropland were the main components of ecological footprint. (2) The consumption of capital stock in Ningxia Province continued to grow at an annual rate of 3.12%, from a value of 2.28 times overusing the existing area in 2004, increasing to 3.41 times in 2017. While the EF size increased slightly with an annual rate of 1.95%. The capital stock consumption was concentrated in Yinchuan and Shizuishan, and the capital flow consumption was concentrated in Wuzhong, Guyuan, and Zhongwei. (3) The capital flows of forest land and built-up land basically meet consumption demand, while the capital stock occupation of grassland, water and fossil energy land was serious. By 2017, the capital flow of cropland could basically satisfy people’s consumption demand. (4) The urbanization rate, GDP, the secondary industry output value and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents were the main influence factors on the natural capital stock consumption. These findings not only are of real significance in promoting the coordinated development between economy and natural capital utilization in Ningxia Province but also have policy implications in improving the utilization efficiency of natural capital in energy-rich ecologically fragile regions.

The Dynamic Analysis and Comparison of Emergy Ecological Footprint for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: A Case Study of Qinghai Province and Tibet

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is experiencing rapid urbanization and ecological degradation, which have led to unsustainable development. It is urgent to conduct a scientifically rigorous study to evaluate its sustainability. Emergy ecological footprint (EEF) is a new modification of ecological footprint based on ecological thermodynamics. This study applied a modified EEF model and three indicators to analyze the sustainability using data collected from Tibet and Qinghai Province during 1995 to 2014. The grey model (GM) was applied to simulate and predict the ecological status of Qinghai and Tibet. Results showed that: (1) the emergy ecological footprint and ecological deficit of Qinghai province increased in general from 1995 to 2014, while Tibet was still sustainable during this period despite the fact that its ecological surplus decreased; (2) the three sustainability indicators indicate that Qinghai and Tibet are moving away from sustainability; (3) the ecological deficit of Qinghai will keep increasing and the ecological surplus of Tibet will keep decreasing from 2015 to 2024. Finally, several suggestions were proposed to protect the local environment and restore ecological functions in these regions.

Evaluation and Prediction of the Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying Capacity for Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration Based on the Grey Model

The conflict between economic development and environmental protection has become increasingly prominent in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the most economically developed region in Jiangsu Province in China. In order to investigate the sustainable development status, and thus provide decision support for the sustainable development of this region, the ecological footprint model was utilized to evaluate and analyze the ecological footprint per capita, the ecological carrying capacity per capita, and the ecological deficit per capita for the period from 2013 to 2017. Furthermore, the Grey model is employed to predict the development trend of the ecological footprint for 2018 to 2022. The evaluation results show that the ecological footprint per capita has been increasing year by year since 2013, reaching a peak of 2.3897 hm2 in 2015 before declining again. In the same period, the available ecological carrying capacity per capita and the ecological footprint per capita basically developed in the same direction, resulting in an ecological deficit per capita and gradually increasing from 2013 to a peak of 2.0303 hm2 in 2015 before declining. It is also found that the change of ecological carrying capacity is not substantial, and the change of the ecological deficit is mainly caused by a huge change of the ecological footprint. The forecast results show that the ecological deficit per capita will reach 1.1713 hm2 in 2018, which will be another deficit peak after 2015. However, in the later period until 2022, the ecological deficit per capita will begin to decline year by year. These results can provide effective inspirations for reducing the ecological deficit of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, thus promoting the coordinated development of the economy and environment in this area.

Impacts of Urbanization of Mountainous Areas on Resources and Environment: Based on Ecological Footprint Model

The rapid urbanization has exerted tremendous pressure on natural systems in mountains. As a measure of sustainable use of natural resources, ecological footprint is an important basis for judging whether the development of a country or region is within the biocapacity. Taking Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture as an example, this study comprehensively analyzes the impact of human activities on mountain resources and environment from the three aspects of urbanization, land use and ecological carrying capacity. The results show that Dali Prefecture with the urbanization rate of 33% is still in the accelerated stage of urbanization. The urban space presents the core-periphery feature, and the central city is the focus of human existence and living activities. The per capita ecological footprint is 1.14 hm2/person higher than the ecological carrying capacity, meaning Dali Prefecture is in an ecological deficit state. This indicates that there is an uncoordinated state between urbanization and environment. Arable land is the main source of per capita ecological footprint in the prefecture. However, the urban expansion overly occupies the arable land in the plain sub-region, leading the arable land to an ecological deficit state. In the future, the development of the mountainous area should focus on the protection of arable land and choose a new sustainable path.