Stock Indices Breakdown during the Pandemic as the Most Dynamic Bear Market in History: Consequences for Individual Investors

The breakdown of stock indices is an obvious part of the financial market cycle. A common question about a bear market is the time and the depth of the downtrend, as well as the speed of the following recovery. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread globally, it induced huge price drops in a very short period, and an uptrend with new historical highs afterwards. The results of this research show that the pandemic breakdown was the fastest bear market in history; however, it does not confirm that future downtrends will be at the same or even greater speed. The consequences for individual investors have forced them to prepare for possible similar market behavior in the future, and to adjust their trading techniques and strategies to these conditions.

Are ESG stocks safe-haven during COVID-19?

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate safe-haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) stocks in global and emerging ESG stock markets during the times of COVID-19 so that portfolio managers and equity market investors could decide to use ESG stocks in their portfolio hedging strategies during times of health and market crisis similar to COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a wavelet coherence framework on four major ESG stock indices from global and emerging stock markets, and two proxies of COVID-19 fear over the period from 5 February 2020 to 18 March 2021. Findings The results of the study show a positive co-movement of the global COVID-19 fear index (GFI) with ESG stock indices on the frequency band of 32 to 64 days, which confirms hedging and safe-haven properties of ESG stocks using the health fear proxy of COVID-19. However, the relationship between all indices and GFI is mixed and inconclusive on a frequency of 0–8 days. Further, the findings do not support the safe-haven characteristics of ESG indices using the market fear proxy (IDEMV index) of COVID-19. The robustness analysis using the CBOE VIX as a proxy of market fear supports that ESG indices do not possess safe-haven properties. The results of the study conclude that the safe-haven properties of ESG indices during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is contingent upon the proxy of COVID-19 fear. Practical implications The findings have important implications for the equity investors and assetty managers to improve their portfolio performance by including ESG stocks in their portfolio choice during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar health crisis. However, their investment decisions could be affected by the choice of COVID-19 proxy. Originality/value The authors believe in the originality of the paper due to following reasons. First, to the best of the knowledge, this is the first study investigating the safe-haven properties of ESG stocks. Second, the authors use both health fear (GFI) and market fear (IDEMV index) proxies of COVID-19 to compare whether safe-haven properties are characterized by health fear or market fear due to COVID-19. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherency framework, which not only takes both time and frequency dimensions of the data into account but also remains unaffected by data stationarity and size issues.

Is Bitcoin a safe haven? Application of FinTech to safeguard Australian stock markets

Purpose This study aims to address the timely question of whether Bitcoin exhibited a safe haven property against the major Australian stock indices during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia and whether such property is similar or different in one year time from the first wave of the COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the bivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, on the five-day returns of Bitcoin and Australian stock indices for the sample period between 23 April, 2011 and 19 April, 2021. Findings The results show that Bitcoin offered weak safe haven and hedging benefits when combined in a portfolio with S&P/ASX 200 Financials index, S&P/ASX 200 Banks index or S&P/ASX 300 Banks index. In regard to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index, the authors found Bitcoin a risky candidate with inconsistent safe haven and hedging benefits. Against S&P/ASX 50 index, S&P/ASX 200 index and S&P/ASX 300 index, Bitcoin was nothing more than a diversifier. The outset of the second COVID-19 wave, which was comparatively more severe than the first, is also reflected in the results with considerably higher correlations. Originality/value There is a lack of in-depth empirical evidence on the safe haven capabilities of Bitcoins for various Australian stock indices during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study bridges this void in research.

Dynamics and Determinants of Market Integration of Green, Clean, Dirty Energy Investments and Conventional Stock Indices

We examine market integration across and clean and green investments, crude oil, and conventional stock indices covering technology stocks, and United States and European stocks. Using daily data covering the period December 1, 2008—October 8, 2020, we first apply the dynamic equicorrelation (DECO) model and make inferences regarding the time-varying level of market integration. Then, we use several regression models and uncover the driving factors of market integration under lower and upper quantiles of the distribution of the equicorrelation. The results show that return equicorrelation varies with time and is shaped by the COVID19 outbreak. Various uncertainty measures are the main drivers of market integration, especially at high levels of market integration. During the COVID-19 outbreak period, the United States Dollar index, the term spread, and the Chinese stock market index have significantly increased market integration.

Cryptocurrency as a safe haven for investment portfolios amid COVID-19 panic cases of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin

PurposeThis article examines the susceptibility of cryptocurrencies to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced panic in comparison with major stock indices.Design/methodology/approachThe author employs the Bayesian structural vector autoregression to examine the phenomenon in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin from 2nd January 2020 to 30th June 2021. A similar analysis is conducted for major stock indices, namely S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite for comparison purposes.FindingsThe results suggest that cryptocurrencies returns suffered immensely in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak following declarations of the disease as a global health emergency and eventually a pandemic in March 2020. However, the returns for all three cryptocurrencies recovered by April 2020 and remained resistant to further COVID-19 panic shocks. The results are dissimilar to those of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite values which were vulnerable to COVID-19 panic throughout the timeframe to June 2021. The results further reveal strong predictive power of Bitcoin on prices of other cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe article provides evidence to support the cryptocurrency as a safe haven during COVID-19 school of thought given their resistance to subsequent shocks during COVID-19. Thus, the author stresses the need for diversification of investment portfolios by including cryptocurrencies given their uniqueness and resistance to shocks during crises.Originality/valueThe author makes use of the novel corona virus panic index to examine the magnitude of shocks in prices of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19.

An Employment-Weighted Municipal Stock Index

State and local officials are often tasked with policy decisions that are influenced by projections of future economic conditions. However, properly assessing and predicting local economic performance is challenging. Common macroeconomic indicators can be helpful, but additional tools are needed. Stock indices have traditionally been used in the investment community to evaluate performance. While a recent surge in fundamental indexing has led to a debate over performance measurement, other uses of fundamental indices have been largely ignored. We introduce an employment-weighted stock index as a supplement to traditional forecasting measures for policymakers at the state and local levels.