Allowing for shocks in portfolio mortality models

The COVID-19 pandemic creates a challenge for actuaries analysing experience data that include mortality shocks. Without sufficient local flexibility in the time dimension, any analysis based on the most recent data will be biased by the temporarily higher mortality. Also, depending on where the shocks sit in the exposure period, any attempt to identify mortality trends will be distorted. We present a methodology for analysing portfolio mortality data that offer local flexibility in the time dimension. The approach permits the identification of seasonal variation, mortality shocks and occurred-but-not reported deaths (OBNR). The methodology also allows actuaries to measure portfolio-specific mortality improvements. Finally, the method assists actuaries in determining a representative mortality level for long-term applications like reserving and pricing, even in the presence of mortality shocks. Results are given for a mature annuity portfolio in the UK, which suggest that the Bayesian information criterion is better for actuarial model selection in this application than Akaike’s information criterion.

“It’s about Living Like Everyone Else”: Dichotomies of Housing Support in Swedish Mental Health Care

The deinstitutionalization of psychiatric care has not only altered the living conditions for people with severe mental illness but has also greatly affected social services staff. In the Mental Health Act launched by the Swedish government in 1995, a new kind of service called ‘housing support’ and a new occupational group, ‘housing support workers,’ was introduced. However, housing support does not currently operate under any specific guidelines regarding the content of the service. This study explores housing support at local level in various municipalities of one Swedish county. The data is based on discussion with three focus groups: care managers, managers for home and community‐based support, and housing supporter workers. The perspective of institutional logics as a specific set of frames that creates a standard for what should or could be done, or alternately what cannot be questioned, is applied to analyze the constructed meaning of housing support. The meaning of housing support is constructed through three dichotomies: process and product, independence and dependence, and flexibility and structure. These dichotomies can be understood as dilemmas inherent in the work and organizing of housing support. With no clear guidelines, the levels of organizational and professional discretion create a space for local flexibility but may also contribute to tremendous differences in defining and implementing housing support. We discuss the potential consequences for housing support users implied by the identified discrepancies.

SHAPER: A Web Server for Fast and Accurate SHAPE Reactivity Prediction

Selective 2′-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension (SHAPE) chemical probing serves as a convenient and efficient experiment technique for providing information about RNA local flexibility. The local structural information contained in SHAPE reactivity data can be used as constraints in 2D/3D structure predictions. Here, we present SHAPE predictoR (SHAPER), a web server for fast and accurate SHAPE reactivity prediction. The main purpose of the SHAPER web server is to provide a portal that uses experimental SHAPE data to refine 2D/3D RNA structure selection. Input structures for the SHAPER server can be obtained through experimental or computational modeling. The SHAPER server can accept RNA structures with single or multiple conformations, and the predicted SHAPE profile and correlation with experimental SHAPE data (if provided) for each conformation can be freely downloaded through the web portal. The SHAPER web server is available at http://rna.physics.missouri.edu/shaper/.

The Impact of Youth Unemployment Due To Work Experience Required by Business Houses, Lusaka Zambia

Research papers looking deep into the causes of youth unemployment focus not only on the causes but solutions of the unemployment rate in Lusaka Zambia. The government of Zambia recognizes these challenges and has pledged to increase employment in general, and employment for youth in particular. So far, however, his initiative has not made the needed difference. Often in business life young people are not given the opportunity or opportunity to express their abilities in relation to the skills they have acquired while in college. This study uses quantitavie method. Result The Government of the Republic of Zambia has in many cases talked about reducing the unemployment rate but the question is what has been done about it? More local flexibility in the design and implementation of policies to address youth unemployment could solve this problem. Participation in work operations results in gains in employment as income in the post-program period and decreases in welfare and unemployment receipts and payments. This positive effect persists at a relatively stable level for up to four years after youth leave the program.

Ushering in a New Dawn: Demand-Side Local Flexibility Platform Governance and Design in the Finnish Energy Markets

Energy ecosystems are under a significant transition. Local flexibility marketplaces (LFM) and platforms are argued to have significant potential in contributing to such a transition. The purpose of this study was to answer the following research question: how do market conditions and stakeholders shape emerging LFM platform governance choices? We approached this objective with an exploratory single-case study by conducting ten semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in the Finnish energy ecosystem. The results of the content and pattern analyses revealed the key challenges to LFM implementation such as the current regulatory treatment of flexibility, high costs of gadget installations, and ensuring sufficient liquidity in the market. In addition, we also demonstrated that despite such barriers, the Finnish ecosystem is largely pragmatic about LFMs’ in its midst. All in all, we contributed to the non-technological streams of LFM literature by developing an exhaustive framework with four distinctive dimensions (i.e., ecosystem readiness, value-creation logic, platform architecture and governance, platform competitiveness) for LFM development, which helps academics, practitioners, and policy-makers to understand how novel platforms emerge and develop.