A simple coupled model of the wind-evaporation-SST feedback with a role for stability

The wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback describes a coupled mechanism by which an anomalous meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropics evolves over time. As commonly posed, the (positive) WES feedback depends critically on the atmospheric response to SST anomalies being governed by a process akin to that argued by Lindzen and Nigam (1987), and omits an alternative process by which SST anomalies modulate surface wind speed through vertical momentum mixing as proposed by Wallace et al. (1989) and Hayes et al. (1989). A simple model is developed that captures the essential coupled dynamics of the WES feedback as commonly posed, while also allowing for momentum entrainment in response to evolving SST anomalies. The evolution of the coupled system depends strongly on which effects are enabled in the model. When both effects are accounted for in idealized cases near the equator, the initial anomalous meridional SST gradient grows over a time scale of a few months, but is damped within one year. The sign and magnitude of the WES feedback depend on latitude within the tropics and exhibit hemispheric asymmetry. When constrained by realistic profiles of prevailing zonal wind, the model predicts that the WES feedback near the equator is stronger during boreal winter, while the domain over which it is positive is broader during boreal summer, and that low-frequency climate variability can also modulate the strength and structure of the WES feedback. These insights may aid in the interpretation of coupled climate behavior in observations and more complex models.

Weakened Interannual Variability in the Tropical Atlantic

Climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic is complex with strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, where the sea surface temperature (SST) variability impacts the hydroclimate of the surrounding continents. We observe a decrease in the variability of the Tropical Atlantic after 1970 in both CMIP6 models and observations. Most of the Tropical Atlantic interannual variability is explained by its equatorial (Atlantic Zonal Mode, AZM) and meridional (Atlantic Meridional Mode, AMM) modes of variability. The observed wind relaxation after 1970 in both the equatorial and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) plays a role in the decreased variability. Concerning the AZM, a widespread warming trend is observed in the equatorial Atlantic accompanied by a weakening trend of the trade winds. This drives a weakening in the Bjerknes Feedback by deepening the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and increasing the thermal damping. Even though individually the TNA and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) show increased variability, the observed asymmetric warming in the Tropical Atlantic and relaxed northeast trade winds after the 70s play a role in decreasing the AMM variability. This configuration leads to positive Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, increasing further the TNA SST, preventing AMM from changing phases as before 1970. Associated with it, the African Sahel shows a positive precipitation trend and the Intertropical Convergence Zone tends to shift northward, which acts on maintaining the increased precipitation.

Trans-basin influence of southwest tropical Indian Ocean warming during early boreal summer

This study examines the climate response to a sea surface temperature (SST) warming imposed over the southwest Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The results indicate that the southwest TIO SST warming can remotely modulate the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) via inter-basin air-sea interaction during early boreal summer. The southwest TIO SST warming induces a “C-shaped” wind response with northeasterly and northwesterly anomalies over the north and south TIO, respectively. The northeasterly wind anomalies contribute to the north TIO SST warming via a positive Wind-Evaporation-SST(WES) feedback after the Asian summer monsoon onset. In June, the easterly wind response extends into the WNP, inducing an SST cooling by WES feedback on the background trade winds. Both the north TIO SST warming and the WNP SST cooling contribute to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) over the WNP. The north TIO SST warming, WNP SST cooling, and AAC constitute an inter-basin coupled mode called the Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC), and the southwest TIO SST warming could be a trigger for IPOC. While the summertime southwest TIO SST warming is often associated with antecedent El Niño, the warming in 2020 seems to be related to extreme Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 fall. The strong southwest TIO SST warming seems to partly explain the strong summer AAC of 2020 over the WNP even without a strong antecedent El Niño.

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent: modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic ITCZ. Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling long wave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a grayradiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

Impact of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole Mode on the Equatorial Pacific

Previous studies have indicated that a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole in the subtropical South Pacific (SPSD), which peaks in austral summer (January–March), is dominated by thermodynamic processes. Observational analyses and numerical experiments were used to investigate the influence of SPSD mode on the equatorial Pacific. The model is an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a reduced-gravity ocean model. An SPSD-like SSTA was imposed on 1 March, after which the model was free to evolve until the end of the year. The coupled model response showed that warm SSTAs extend toward the equator with northwesterly wind anomalies and then grow to El Niño–like anomalies by the end of the year. SPSD forcing weakens southeasterly trade winds and propagates warm SSTAs toward the equator through wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. Meanwhile, relaxation of trade winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific depresses the thermocline and upwelling. Eastward anomalous currents near the equator cause warm horizontal advection in the central Pacific. Further experiments showed that thermodynamic coupling mainly acts on but is not essential for SSTA propagation, either from the subtropics to the equator or westward along the equator, while oceanic dynamic coupling alone also appears to be able to initiate anomalies on the equator and plays a critical role in SSTA growth in the tropical Pacific. This is consistent with observational analyses, which indicated that influence of WES feedback on SSTA propagation associated with the SPSD is limited. Finally, the warm pole close to the equator plays the dominant role in inducing the El Niño–like anomalies.

An Analytical Framework for Understanding Tropical Meridional Modes

A theoretical framework is developed for understanding the transient growth and propagation characteristics of thermodynamically coupled, meridional mode–like structures in the tropics. The model consists of a Gill–Matsuno-type steady atmosphere under the long-wave approximation coupled via a wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback to a “slab” ocean model. When projected onto meridional basis functions for the atmosphere the system simplifies to a nonnormal set of equations that describes the evolution of individual sea surface temperature (SST) modes, with clean separation between equatorially symmetric and antisymmetric modes. The following major findings result from analysis of the system: 1) a transient growth process exists whereby specific SST modes propagate toward lower-order modes at the expense of the higher-order modes; 2) the same dynamical mechanisms govern the evolution of symmetric and antisymmetric SST modes except for the lowest-order wavenumber, where for symmetric structures the atmospheric Kelvin wave plays a critically different role in enhancing decay; and 3) the WES feedback is positive for all modes (with a maximum for the most equatorially confined antisymmetric structure) except for the most equatorially confined symmetric mode where the Kelvin wave generates a negative WES feedback. Taken together, these findings explain why equatorially antisymmetric “dipole”-like structures may dominate thermodynamically coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropics. The role of nonnormality and the role of realistic mean states in meridional mode variability are discussed.

Dynamic Feedback of Aerosol Effects on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

The influence of present-day anthropogenic aerosols on the summer monsoon over the East Asia region was simulated using the Community Earth System Model coupled with a slab ocean model. The simulations revealed significant radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and associated changes in clouds over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific; however, their spatial patterns differed from the exhibited surface temperature and precipitation responses. Two major dynamic feedback mechanisms were identified to explain such discrepancies. The wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback, triggered by an initial cooling over the midlatitude sea surface, induced an equatorward expansion of ocean cooling through strengthened trade winds. The sea surface cooling excited a meridional wave pattern similar to the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. Although the aerosol effect generally caused weakening in summer monsoon strength and regional precipitation over East Asia, precipitation increases were seen over the locations of the midlatitude mei-yu front and around the tropics. These precipitation increases are primarily associated with the WES feedback and teleconnection patterns. The aerosol effect also reached the upper troposphere, causing an equatorward shift of the jet stream over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific, indicating a much broader scale of teleconnection.

The Role of Oceanic Feedback in the Climate Response to Doubling CO2

Two suites of partial coupling experiments are devised with the upper-ocean dynamics version (UOM) of the CCSM3 to isolate the effects of the feedbacks from the change of the wind-driven ocean circulation and air–sea heat flux in the global climate response to the forcing of doubling CO2. The partial coupling is achieved by implementing a so-called overriding technique, which helps quantitatively partition the total response in the fully coupled model to the feedback component in question and the response to external forcing in the absence of the former. By overriding the wind stress seen by the ocean and the wind speed through the bulk formula for evaporation, the experiments help to reveal that (i) the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback is the main formation mechanism for the tropical SST pattern under the CO2 forcing, verifying the hypothesis proposed by Xie et al.; (ii) the weakened tropical Pacific wind is shown in this UOM model not to be the cause for the enhanced equatorial Pacific warming, as one might expect from the thermocline and Bjerknes feedbacks; (iii) WES is also the leading mechanism for shaping the tropical precipitation response in the ocean; and (iv) both the wind-driven ocean dynamical feedback and the WES feedback act to increase the persistence of the southern annular mode (SAM) and the increased time scale of the SAM due to these feedbacks manifests itself in the response of the jet shift to an identical CO2 forcing, in a manner conforming to the fluctuation–dissipation theorem.