A Regime Shift Toward a More Anoxic Environment in a Eutrophic Sea in Northern Europe

Dissolved oxygen in the sea is essential for marine fauna and biogeochemical processes. Decline in the sea water oxygen concentration is considered to be an effect of eutrophication, also exacerbated by climate change. The Baltic Sea is one of the most eutrophic seas in the world and is located in northern Europe. It is a vulnerable, brackish, semi-enclosed sea, suffering from high pressures from human activity. This leads to increased hypoxic and anoxic areas, which can be used as a measure of the environmental state. In the present study the extent of anoxic (O2 < 0 ml l–1) and hypoxic (O2 < 2 ml l–1) areas were estimated for the autumns in 1960–2019 using vertical profiles of observed oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper and four sub-areas of the Baltic proper: the Bornholm Basin, the western, northern and eastern Gotland basins. From vertical profiles of observed salinity, the annual average of the halocline depths in the four sub-basins were estimated. The results imply regime shifts toward increased anoxic area extents in the Gotland basins around the turn of the 20th century. In autumn 2018, the extent of anoxic bottom areas in the Baltic Sea was record high since the start of the data series. During the later part of the studied period the depths of the halocline coincide with the depth of the hypoxia in the Gotland basins. This implies that in these basins a worst-case scenario for the extent of hypoxic areas seems to be reached.

Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper

Dense blooms of filamentous diazotrophic cyanobacteria are formed every summer in the Baltic Sea. These autotrophic organisms may bypass nitrogen limitation by performing nitrogen fixation, which also governs surrounding organisms by increasing bioavailable nitrogen. The magnitude of the nitrogen fixation is important to estimate from a management perspective since this might counteract eutrophication reduction measures. Here, a cyanobacteria life cycle model has been implemented for the first time in a high-resolution 3D coupled physical and biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea, spanning the years 1850–2008. The explicit consideration of life cycle dynamics and transitions significantly improves the representation of the cyanobacterial phenological patterns compared to earlier 3D modeling efforts. Now, the rapid increase and decrease in cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea are well captured, and the seasonal timing is in concert with observations. The current improvement also had a large effect on the nitrogen fixation load and is now in agreement with estimates based on in situ measurements. By performing four phosphorus sensitivity runs, we demonstrate the importance of both organic and inorganic phosphorus availability for historical cyanobacterial biomass estimates. The model combination can be used to continuously predict internal nitrogen loads via nitrogen fixation in Baltic Sea ecosystem management, which is of extra importance in a future ocean with changed conditions for the filamentous cyanobacteria.

Estimating the abundance of the critically endangered Baltic Proper harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population using passive acoustic monitoring

Knowing the abundance of a population is a crucial component to assess its conservation status and develop effective conservation plans. For most cetaceans, abundance estimation is difficult given their cryptic and mobile nature, especially when the population is small and has a transnational distribution. In the Baltic Sea, the number of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) has collapsed since the mid-20th century and the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN; however, its abundance remains unknown. Here, one of the largest ever passive acoustic monitoring studies was carried out by eight Baltic Sea nations to estimate the abundance of the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise for the first time. By logging porpoise echolocation signals at 298 stations during May 2011-April 2013, calibrating the loggers’ spatial detection performance at sea, and measuring the click rate of tagged individuals, we estimated an abundance of 66-1,143 individuals (95% CI, point estimate 490) during May-October within the population’s proposed management border. The small abundance estimate strongly supports that the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is facing an extremely high risk of extinction, and highlights the need for immediate and efficient conservation actions through international cooperation. It also provides a starting point in monitoring the trend of the population abundance to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures and determine its interactions with the larger neighbouring Belt Sea population. Further, we offer evidence that design-based passive acoustic monitoring can generate reliable estimates of the abundance of rare and cryptic animal populations across large spatial scales.

Causes of the extensive hypoxia in the Gulf of Riga in 2018

The Gulf of Riga is a relatively shallow bay connected to the deeper central Baltic Sea (Baltic Proper) via straits with sills. The decrease in the near-bottom oxygen levels from spring to autumn is a common feature in the gulf, but in 2018, hypoxia was exceptional. We analyzed temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrient data collected in 2018 and historical data available from environmental databases. Forcing data from the study year were compared with their long-term means and variability. The year 2018 was exceptional due to occasionally dominating north-easterly winds supporting the inflow of saltier waters from the Baltic Proper and meteorological conditions causing fast development of thermal stratification in spring. Existing stratification hindered vertical transport between the near-bottom layer (NBL) and the water layers above it. The estimated oxygen consumption rate at the sediment surface in spring-summer 2018 was about 1.7 mmol O2 m−2 h−1 that exceeded the oxygen input to the NBL due to advection and mixing. We suggest that the observed pronounced oxygen depletion was magnified by the prolonged stratified season and haline stratification in the deep layer that maintained a decreased water volume between the seabed and the pycnocline. The observed increase in phosphate concentrations in the NBL in summer 2018 suggests a significant sediment phosphorus release in hypoxic conditions counteracting the mitigation measures to combat eutrophication. We conclude, if similar meteorological conditions as in 2018 could occur more frequently in the future, such extensive hypoxia would be more common in the Gulf of Riga and other coastal basins with similar morphology and human-induced elevated input of nutrients.

Holocene Spatiotemporal Redox Variations in the Southern Baltic Sea

Low oxygen conditions in the modern Baltic Sea are exacerbated by human activities; however, anoxic conditions also prevailed naturally over the Holocene. Few studies have characterized the specific paleoredox conditions (manganous, ferruginous, euxinic) and their frequency in southern Baltic sub-basins during these ancient events. Here, we apply a suite of isotope systems (Fe, Mo, S) and associated elemental proxies (e.g., Fe speciation, Mn) to specifically define water column redox regimes through the Baltic Holocene in a sill-proximal to sill-distal transect (Lille Belt, Bornholm Basin, Landsort Deep) using samples collected during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347. At the sill-proximal Lille Belt, there is evidence for anoxic manganous/ferruginous conditions for most of the cored interval following the transition from the Ancylus Lake to Littorina Sea but with no clear excursion to more reducing or euxinic conditions associated with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) or Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) events. At the sill-distal southern sub-basin, Bornholm Basin, a combination of Fe speciation, pore water Fe, and solid phase Mo concentration and isotope data point to manganous/ferruginous conditions during the Ancylus Lake-to-Littorina Sea transition and HTM but with only brief excursions to intermittently or weakly euxinic conditions during this interval. At the western Baltic Proper sub-basin, Landsort Deep, new Fe and S isotope data bolster previous Mo isotope records and Fe speciation evidence for two distinct anoxic periods but also suggest that sulfide accumulation beyond transient levels was largely restricted to the sediment-water interface. Ultimately, the combined data from all three locations indicate that Fe enrichments typically indicative of euxinia may be best explained by Fe deposition as oxides following events likely analogous to the periodic incursions of oxygenated North Sea waters observed today, with subsequent pyrite formation in sulfidic pore waters. Additionally, the Mo isotope data from multiple Baltic Sea southern basins argue against restricted and widespread euxinic conditions, as has been demonstrated in the Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea during the HTM or MCA. Instead, similar to today, each past Baltic anoxic event is characterized by redox conditions that become progressively more reducing with increasing distance from the sill.

Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Analysis and prediction of water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea are difficult tasks because of the contribution of various drivers to the water level, the presence of outliers in time series, and possibly non-stationarity of the extremes. Non-stationary modeling of extremes was performed to the block maxima of water level derived from the time series at six locations in the Gulf of Riga and one location in the Baltic proper, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018. Several parameters of the generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution of the measured water level maxima both in the Baltic proper and in the interior of the Gulf of Riga exhibit statistically significant changes over these years. The most considerable changes occur to the shape parameter ξ. All stations in the interior of the Gulf of Riga experienced a regime shift: a drastic abrupt drop in the shape parameter from ξ≈0.03±0.02 to ξ≈-0.36±0.04 around 1986 followed by an increase of a similar magnitude around 1990. This means a sudden switch from a Fréchet distribution to a three-parameter Weibull distribution and back. The period of an abrupt shift (1986–1990) in the shape parameters of GEV distribution in the interior of the Gulf of Riga coincides with the significant weakening of correlation between the water level extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The water level extremes at Kolka at the entrance to the Gulf of Riga reveal a significant linear trend in shape parameter following the ξ≈-0.44+0.01(t-1961) relation. There is evidence of a different course of the water level extremes in the Baltic proper and the interior of the Gulf of Riga. The described changes may lead to greatly different projections for long-term behavior of water level extremes and their return periods based on data from different intervals. Highlights. Water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga are analyzed for 1961–2018. Significant changes in parameters of generalized-extreme-value distribution are identified. Significant linear trend in shape parameter is established at Kolka. The shape parameter changes in a step-like manner. The shape parameter of GEV has regime shifts around 1986 and 1990 in the gulf.

21st century nutrient and oxygen dynamics in the Gulf of Bothnia

<p>The Gulf of Bothnia is the only sub-basin of the Baltic Sea with no serious eutrophication. However, long-term observations have shown degradation of the water quality over the past years, indicating warning signals for the future. Here, we use a high resolution ocean circulation model including biogeochemistry to study 21st century nutrient and oxygen changes in the Gulf of Bothnia. We analyze ensembles for 5 different scenarios; a historical (1975-2005) and 4 future projections (2006-2100). For the projections, two atmospheric <em>p</em>CO<sub>2 </sub>trajectories are used, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and two settings for nutrient loads are applied to each RCP scenario: one following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) and the other assuming business as usual. We also test a historical scenario but with no local nutrient loads to better understand the biogeochemical influence of the lateral open boundary. The comparison of observations with the historical scenario shows that oxygen trends are well captured by the model despite a small bias in nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that the Bothnian Bay is more sensitive to river loads than the Bothnian Sea, which is primarily affected by the inflows from the Baltic proper. All future projections show a decrease in phosphate concentrations and an increase in nitrate concentrations due to lower/higher input of phosphate/nitrate from the Baltic proper. Oxygen concentrations in bottom waters of the Gulf of Bothnia are not susceptible to become hypoxic in the future. However, when business as usual is applied for nutrient loads, oxygen concentrations decrease significantly over the entire future period and short episodes of low oxygen conditions in bottom waters (with less than 5 ml O<sub>2</sub>/l) become more frequent and more pronounced in the Bothnian Sea, especially towards the end of the century.</p><p> </p>

The core of the Baltic CIL: shall we introduce the Bornholm Intermediate Water?

<p>Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) is apparent in the thermohaline structure of the Baltic Sea every year, typically from April to December. Within the CIL, water temperature, salinity, oxygen content, and other parameters are highly inhomogeneous in vertical, reflecting a complicated process of its formation. The core of the CIL (the layer of the coldest waters) has its T,S-index) allowing to identify the south-western part of the sea as the source of these waters. At the beginning of spring warming, a combination of environmental factors favors the subduction of the cold surface waters into the intermediate layers of the Baltic Proper, where they adjust to the density field, making up the coldest layer right above the permanent pycnocline.</p><p>For spring 2006, CTD measurements from 2 expeditions of research vessels “Professor Shtokman” of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology and “Gauss” of Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research in Warnemünde (IOW) were analyzed, along with the CTD measurements from ICES open database, and meteorological information. Remote sensing data provide observations of the abrupt transformation of SST field in the Bornholm Basin in early spring 2006, when the coldest surface water occurred within the coastal zones and its temperature was close to or below the temperature of maximum density (Tmd). The beginning of spring warming in the region and further heating of the cold surface water from temperature below the Tmd induce horizontal exchange, which favors the penetration of winter-cold (1.1–2.1 °C) surface waters of moderate salinity (7.6-8.1) into the intermediate layers in March. This water was observed in the Gdansk and Gotland basins in April-May 2006 as the core of the CIL. On the basis of vertical T,S-profiles and T,S-diagrams, the range of parameters of the CIL core waters in spring 2006 was determined (T: 1.4–2.1 °C; S: 7.6–8.1), which corresponds to the upper mixed layer in the vicinity of the Bornholm Island in March, 2006. Since this relation has already been confirmed for other years, and having in mind the importance of the process of the CIL formation for the entire Baltic Sea conveyor belt, we suggest to term waters of the CIL core as the Bornholm Intermediate Waters (BIW). Obviously, the T,S-index of the BIW shall vary from year to year, reflecting the severity of the past winter and the conditions of the particular spring. However, the BIW location right above the pycnocline, the lowest (for the current year) temperature, and its characteristic salinity of 7.6-8.1 seem to be repeatedly confirmed by field observations in the Baltic Proper in spring.</p><p>Investigations are supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 19-05-00717 (in part of the data analysis) and the State Assignment No. 0149-2019-0013 (in part of satellite data collecting and processing).</p>