The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy

In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have used various interventions,1,2 including COVID certificates as proof of vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, required for individuals to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces.3 While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns,4,5 the effect of the certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy requires investigation. We construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory6 and validate them with econometric methods7 to evaluate the impact of incentives created by COVID certificates in France, Germany, and Italy. We estimate that from their announcement during summer 2021 to the end of the year, the intervention led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p.; averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France (i.e., 31.7%), 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany (5.6%), and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy (14.0%); and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, averted surpassing the occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated. Overall, our findings are more substantial than predicted8 and may help to inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccination and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with large social and economic consequences.

Innovative Certifications in Adventure Tourism

Certifications, quality systems and standardization carriers systemic innovativeness, since they usually are established after a lengthy period of research, evidence-finding and testing. Ideally, they incorporate the most decisive best practices that will benefit firms, customers, and wider groups of stakeholders in communities. Such systems can be seen as driving forces for innovation, and memberships in them is likely to enhance prospective changes in the any industry. This chapter addresses the prospects of diffusion of innovation through certification and quality systems, using Rogers (1995) diffusion theory explaining adoption based on the five attributes. Findings from a qualitative multi-case study of the national tourism quality certifications of VisitScotland (Quality Assurance), New Zealand (Qualmark) and Iceland (Vakinn) is used to illustrate and explain diffusion. The study shows that relative advantage and compatibility seem most critical for adoption. Complexity and observability are important too, while trialability seems less obtainable in this particular context.

Learning Technologies among Academics in the United Arab Emirates: One Academic Year since COVID-19

This research aims to investigate the adoption of learning technologies among academics in higher education institutes within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after completing one academic year teaching through a hybrid technique due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The researchers propose a validated framework that integrates the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), Social Cognition Theory (SCT), and Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT). The research was conducted using the quantitative method, where 170 academics from 22 higher education institutes in the UAE completed an online survey. The researchers found that the adoption of learning technologies depends on the individual academics and the higher education institutes; therefore, the researchers suggest building a more effective strategy to accelerate adoption. Additionally, the researchers also found that the academics’ perceptions of the usefulness of learning technologies do not affect their behavior while utilizing them, and that the behavioral intention does not affect the actual usage of the learning technologies.

Exploring blockchain adoption intentions in the supply chain: perspectives from innovation diffusion and institutional theory

PurposeDespite blockchain's potential supply chain benefits, few organizations have moved beyond pilot projects. The paper aims to explore blockchain adoption intentions for supply chain applications using two theoretical perspectives: innovation diffusion theory (IDT) and institutional theory (IT).Design/methodology/approachBased on theory, five propositions were developed addressing the intention to adopt blockchain. The propositions were tested using scenario-based experiments with supply chain professionals. To provide additional insights, interviews with 21 supply chain professionals in 15 organizations representing 8 industries were content analyzed.FindingsExperiments suggest that the intention to adopt blockchain is higher when there are government regulations regarding product origin, organizations are using updated cloud-based information systems and organizations are working with third-party consultants. The content analysis suggests that organizations that face normative pressures to adopt blockchain supply chain applications and recognize blockchain's relative advantage, compatibility and complexity are more likely to be actively seeking information about and adopting blockchain supply chain applications. The authors synthesize findings and provide new propositions to guide future research.Originality/valueUsing a multi-method approach, the study provides an important window into supply chain managers' perceptions of the necessary conditions to support organization-level blockchain adoption. The findings also indicate key characteristics present in supply chain networks poised for blockchain adoption.

Gaya Komunikasi Politik Twitter Partai Gerindra

Social media, especially Twitter, as one of the most widely used platforms on the internet, is now being used by political organizations to convey their political communication messages. This study uses a descriptive qualitative method by analyzing the communication style conveyed by the Gerindra party Twitter account to its followers. In looking for references, researchers use a systematic review method wherein the authors must describe the search to be used, determine where and when they should search, and what terms they should use. The results of this study indicate that the style of political communication conveyed by the Gerindra Twitter account has the aim of being accepted by Twitter users, whose users are young people. Unlike the political communication messages conveyed during the 2014 & 2019 elections, the Gerindra Twitter account conveys its political communication style in a relaxed and informative way. The relevance of the information diffusion theory in this study is when the Gerindra party takes advantage of the great opportunity of Twitter as a social media to communicate its political campaigns so that new voters can accept it in the future.

Employing Spectral Analysis to Obtain Dispersion Parameters in an Atmospheric Environment Driven by a Mesoscale Downslope Windstorm

Considering the influence of the downslope windstorm called “Vento Norte” (VNOR; Portuguese for “North Wind”) in planetary boundary layer turbulent features, a new set of turbulent parameterizations, which are to be used in atmospheric dispersion models, has been derived. Taylor’s statistical diffusion theory, velocity spectra obtained at four levels (3, 6, 14, and 30 m) in a micrometeorological tower, and the energy-containing eddy scales are used to calculate neutral planetary boundary layer turbulent parameters. Vertical profile formulations of the wind velocity variances and Lagrangian decorrelation time scales are proposed, and to validate this new parameterization, it is applied in a Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Dispersion Model to simulate the Prairie Grass concentration experiments. The simulated concentration results were shown to agree with those observed.

Diffusion approximations in population genetics and the rate of Muller's ratchet

Diffusion theory is a central tool of modern population genetics, yielding simple expressions for fixation probabilities and other quantities that are not easily derived from the underlying Wright-Fisher model. Unfortunately, the textbook derivation of diffusion equations as scaling limits requires evolutionary parameters (selection coefficients, mutation rates) to scale like the inverse population size---a severe restriction that does not always reflect biological reality. Here we note that the Wright-Fisher model can be approximated by diffusion equations under more general conditions, including in regimes where selection and/or mutation are strong compared to genetic drift. As an illustration, we use a diffusion approximation of the Wright-Fisher model to improve estimates for the expected time to fixation of a strongly deleterious allele, i.e. the rate of Muller's ratchet.

Analysis of BIM functionalities diffusion in the construction industry: the case of the MENA region

PurposeThis paper researches the diffusion patterns of various BIM functionalities across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) construction industry.Design/methodology/approachThe study grounds on the innovation diffusion theory proposition that both the internal and external factors drive the widespread adoption of innovative trends. The study empirically analyzes the diffusion patterns of BIM by employing and comparing three mathematical influence models: internal, external and mixed models.FindingsThe results of the questionnaires point out that the mixed model as having the highest explanatory power and shows that the internal influence factors outperform the external factors in affecting the diffusion of BIM functionalities in the MENA Architectural, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper can be of significant value for academic researchers as well as BIM business developers who are interested in emerging markets via providing an enhanced understanding of the adoption process of different BIM functionalities as well as a theoretical basis for explaining the diffusion patterns of information technology innovations in the AEC industry.Originality/valueThis study is among the first applications of the influence models to examine the adoption of BIM functionalities in the AEC industry and the very first across the MENA region.

Facilitating informed land-use decisions through the modelling of ecosystem service trade-offs

<p>Increasing global populations are placing increasing pressure on our natural systems, reducing their capacity to produce the ecosystem services that we rely upon for human wellbeing (World Bank, 2004). Clarifying the implications of land-use decisions across the range of ecosystem services is fundamental to understanding the trade-offs inherent in land-use options. LUCI (the Land Utilization and Capability Indicator) is an emergent Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based framework developed to enable the mapping of several ecosystem services in a spatially explicit manner. This process enables a clearer understanding of the inter-dependencies between ecosystems and potential implications and trade-offs of management interventions across a range of services. There is however, limited understanding of the impact, utility and credibility of such tools for land-use decision-makers, or of how they perceive the information conveyed. This Thesis considered the impact that presenting information on land-use trade-offs through LUCI had on land-owners at the farm scale. This research supports previous findings that information alone does not drive behaviour (or decision-making) (Kollmuss, 2002, Fisk, 2011; Kennedy, 2010; Mackenzie-Mohr, 2000; Stern, 2000). Similarly, perceived credibility was not the main driver of decision-making nor is it necessarily rationally based. However without it, voluntary adoption of a new technology or tool is unlikely. Therefore, in seeking to diffuse tools, such as LUCI within a community, process design should take into account the social structures and the characteristics of targeted individuals within that community. The influence of temporal and context specific factors on decision-making provides both barriers and opportunities for technology diffusion. The research findings propose that when integrating new tools and technologies within communities, consideration is given to using a suite of tools, mechanisms and theories in concert such as Community-Based Social Marketing (Mackenzie-Mohr, 2011) and Diffusion Theory (Rogers, 2003) to facilitate improved diffusion and uptake by communities.</p>