temporal modelling
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2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melen Leclerc ◽  
Stéphane Jumel ◽  
Frédéric M. Hamelin ◽  
Rémi Treilhaud ◽  
Nicolas Parisey ◽  
...  

Within-host spread of pathogens is an important process for the study of plant-pathogen interactions. However, the development of plant-pathogen lesions remains practically difficult to characterize and quantify beyond the common traits such as lesion area. We tackle the spatio-temporal dynamics of interactions by combining image-based phenotyping with mathematical modelling. We consider the spread of Peyronellaea pinodes on pea stipules that were monitored daily with visible imaging. We assume that pathogen propagation on host-tissues can be described by the Fisher-KPP model where lesion spread depends on both a logistic local growth and an homogeneous diffusion. Model parameters are estimated using a variational data assimilation approach on sets of registered images. This modelling framework is used to compare the spread of an aggressive isolate on two pea cultivars with contrasted levels of partial resistance. We show that the expected slower spread on the most resistant cultivar is actually due to a decrease of diffusion and, to a lesser extent, local growth. These results demonstrate that spatial models with imaging allows one to disentangle the processes involved in host-pathogen interactions. Hence, promoting model-based phenotyping of interactions would allow a better identification of quantitative traits thereafter used in genetics and ecological studies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2123 (1) ◽  
pp. 012048
Author(s):  
Sukarna ◽  
Maya Sari Wahyuni ◽  
Rahmat Syam

Abstract South Sulawesi province ranks sixth-highest in tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. Makassar ranks the highest in South Sulawesi. Spatio-temporal modelling can identify the areas with high risk as well as the temporal relative risk of disease. We analysed the tuberculosis cases data from Makassar City Health Office for 15 districts over seven years from 2012 to 2018. Seven models of Bayesian Spatio-temporal (BST) Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) were applied by using the measures of goodness of fit (GOF) namely, DIC and WAIC. The results showed that BST CAR localised model with G = 3 has the lowest DIC and BST CAR adaptive has the lowest WAIC. Based on the preferred model (Bayesian ST CAR localised with G=3), Panakukang district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2012, 2013, and 2014, while Makassar district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Mamajang had the highest relative risk of TB in 2018.


2021 ◽  
pp. 100544
Author(s):  
Marco Mingione ◽  
Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro ◽  
Alessio Farcomeni ◽  
Fabio Divino ◽  
Gianfranco Lovison ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Tulsi Adhikari ◽  
Jeetendra Yadav ◽  
Himanshu Tolani ◽  
Niharika Tripathi ◽  
Harpreet Kaur ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eeti Jain ◽  
Anurag Singh

Abstract Information diffusion is an important part of the social network. Information flows between the individuals in the social networks to shape and update their opinions about various topics. The updated opinion values of them further spread the information in the network. The social network is always evolving by nature, leading to the dynamics of the network. Connections keep on changing among the individuals based on the various characteristics of the networks and individuals. Opinions of individuals may again be affected by the changes in the network which leads to dynamics on the network. Therefore, the co-evolving nature of dynamics on/of the network is proposed. Co-evolving Temporal Model for Opinion and Triad Network Formation is modelled to evaluate the opinion convergence. Some fully stubborn agents are chosen in the network to affect opinion evolution, framing society’s opinion. It is also analysed how these agents can divert the whole network towards their opinion values. When temporal modelling is done using all the three conditions, Triadic Closure, Opinion Threshold value and the Page Rank value over the network, the network does not reach consensus at the convergence point. Various individuals with different opinion values still exist.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Ines Grigorescu ◽  
Gheorghe Kucsicsa ◽  
Bianca Mitrică ◽  
Irena Mocanu ◽  
Monica Dumitrașcu

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