A Colorado-specific life cycle assessment model to support evaluation of low-carbon transportation fuels and policy

The transportation sector accounts for over 20 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Colorado which without intervention will grow to over 30 million metric tons (MMT) of GHG emissions per year. This study seeks to develop a specific characterization of the Colorado fuel and transportation system using a customized life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The model (CO-GT) was developed as an analytical tool to define Colorado’s 2020 baseline life cycle GHG emissions for the transportation sector, and to examine Colorado-specific pathways for GHG reductions through fuel types and volumes changes that might be associated with a state clean fuel standard (CFS). By developing a life cycle assessment of transportation fuels that is specific to the state of Colorado’s geography, fleet makeup, policies, energy sector and more, these tools can evaluate various proposals for the transition towards a more sustainable state transportation system. The results of this study include a quantification of the Colorado-specific roles of clean fuels, electricity, extant policies, and fleet transition in projections of the state’s 2030 transportation sector GHG emissions. Relative to a 2020 baseline, electrification of the vehicle fleet is found to reduce state-wide lifecycle GHG emissions by 7.7 MMT CO2e by 2030, and a model CFS policy able to achieve similar reductions in the carbon intensity of clean fuels as was achieved by California in the first 10 years of its CFS policies is found to only reduce state-wide lifecycle GHG emissions by 0.2 MMT CO2e by 2030. These results illustrate the insensitivity of Colorado’s transportation fleet GHG emissions reductions to the presence of CFS policies, as proposed to date.

Regulatory and Policy Analysis of Production, Development and Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in the United States

The United States, spurred in part by international developments, is expanding its law and policy to incentivize the use of sustainable aviation fuels. While the U.S. has agreed to participate in the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), it has only recently adopted federal rules that define greenhouse gas emission reduction standards for certain classes of airplanes (effective January 2021). However, such standards focus on engine efficiency rather than the fuel burned. For sustainable aviation fuels, the U.S. continues to rely on voluntary programs at a federal, state, and regional level. The federal Renewable Fuel Standard program allows producers to opt in. In addition, states have started to allow sustainable aviation fuel producers to “opt in” to their programs; this includes California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, and Washington’s newly adopted Clean Fuels Program. Other states are also starting to consider such programs. Elsewhere, states like Hawaii are starting to support SAF production in other ways, including through tax mechanisms. In addition, regional and private efforts to adopt and/or promote sustainable aviation fuels are underway. This piecemeal approach—due in part to the lack of cohesive U.S. federal policy—stands in contrast to the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive and Emissions Trading System, and adoption of policies by European countries. Because of aviation’s international nature, tracking what is happening in Europe matters greatly for U.S. carriers. As the U.S. works to meet its international obligations through CORSIA, finding a way forward with sustainable aviation fuel in the United States may depend on a more defined federal policy. Actions taken by both the EU and European countries offers some guidance for actions that could be taken by the U.S. Even in the absence of more defined measures, better tracking of voluntary measures is a critical step.