Spatial Spillover Effect and Action Path of Electricity Consumption Driven by China’s Financial Development based on Global Co-integration

Although studies on the influencing factors of electricity consumption are rich, the focus on the relationship between financial development and electricity consumption is scarce due to the characteristics of financial sector. In fact, the financial development cannot only increase electricity consumption, but also have the spatial spillover effects. Based on the global spatial modelling techniques, the long-term and short-term relationship between financial development and electricity consumption is examined, and the intermediary effect of financial development on electricity consumption through economic growth, urbanization and industrial structure optimization is also verified. Results show that there is a global co-integration relationship between financial development, economic growth, urbanization, industrial structure optimization and China's electricity consumption, rather than a local co-integration relationship. When the short-term change of electricity consumption deviates from the equilibrium state, the global error correction mechanism can promote the unbalanced system to return to equilibrium from time and spatial dimension. This study not only confirms the spatial spillover effects, but also heterogeneous influences of financial development on electricity consumption, which provides new evidence to make relevant policies.

Labor Industry Allocation, Industrial Structure Optimization, and Economic Growth

Industrial structure optimization is an important explanatory variable of economic growth. The allocation of production factors among industries affects the evolution of industrial structure and then acts on economic growth. Labor force is one of the most important factors of production. In recent years, there has been a significant wage difference between different industries in China’s labor market, and the employees have shifted from low-wage industries to high-wage industries. Using the sample data of 282 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2018, this paper tests whether this wage-guided labor industry allocation will affect economic growth and whether there is an intermediary effect of industrial structure optimization. The empirical results show that the allocation of labor force to high-wage industries not only directly hinders economic growth but also indirectly hinders economic growth through the intermediary effect of industrial structure optimization. Furthermore, this paper makes a comparative study in different regions. The research conclusion shows that promoting the optimization of industrial structure and economic growth depends on correcting the price distortion of labor market and guiding the cross-industry rational allocation of labor force.

Industrial Structure Optimization and Low-Carbon Transformation of Chinese Industry Based on the Forcing Mechanism of CO2 Emission Peak Target

The setting of a CO2 emission peak target (CEPT) will have a profound impact on Chinese industry. An objective assessment of this impact is of great significance, both for understanding/applying the forcing mechanism of CEPT, and for promoting the optimization of China’s industrial structure and the low-carbon transformation of Chinese industry at a lower cost. Based on analysis of the internal logic and operation of the forcing mechanism of CEPT, we employed the STIRPAT model. This enabled us to predict the peak path of China’s CO2 emissions, select the path values that would achieve the CEPT with the year 2030 as the constraint condition, construct a multi-objective and multi-constraint input/output optimization model, employ the genetic algorithm to solve the model, and explore the industrial structure optimization and low-carbon transformation of Chinese industry. The results showed that the setting of CEPT will have a significant suppression effect on high-carbon emission industries and a strong boosting effect on low-carbon emission industries. The intensity of the effect is positively correlated with the target intensity of the CO2 emissions peak. Under the effect of the forcing mechanism of CEPT, Chinese industry can realize a low-carbon transition and the industrial structure can realize optimization. The CEPT is in line with sustainable development goals, but the setting of CEPT may risk causing excessive shrinkage of basic industries—which should be prevented.