Bayes' theorem: scientific assessment of experience

Homeopathy is based on experience and this is a scientific procedure if we follow Bayes' theorem. Unfortunately this is not the case at the moment. Symptoms are added to our materia medica based on absolute occurrence, while Bayes theorem tells us that this should be based on relative occurrence. Bayes theorem can be applied on prospective research, but also on retrospective research and consensus based on a large number of cases. Confirmation bias is an important source of false data in experience based systems like homeopathy. Homeopathic doctors should become more aware of this and longer follow-up of cases could remedy this. The existing system of adding symptoms to our materia medica is obsolete.

Carepath for overcoming psychosis early (COPE): first 5 years of clinical operation and prospective research in the Cavan–Monaghan early intervention service

Objectives: As Ireland confronts the many challenges of broadening the introduction of early intervention services (EIS) for first episode psychosis (FEP) as national policy, this article describes Carepath for Overcoming Psychosis Early (COPE), the EIS of Cavan–Monaghan Mental Health Service, and presents prospective research findings during its first 5 years of operation. Methods: COPE was launched as a rural EIS with an embedded research protocol in early 2012, following an education programme for general practitioners (GPs). Here, operational activities are documented and research findings presented through to late 2016. Results: During this period, 115 instances of FEP were incepted into COPE, 70.4% via their GP and 29.6% via the Emergency Department. The annual rate of inception was 24.8/100,000 of population aged > 15 years and was 2.1-fold more common among men than women. Mean duration of untreated psychosis was 5.7 months and median time from first psychotic presentation to initiation of antipsychotic treatment was zero days. Assessments of psychopathology, neuropsychology, neurology, premorbid functioning, quality of life, insight, and functionality compared across 10 DSM-IV psychotic diagnoses made at six months following presentation indicated minimal differences between them, other than more prominent negative symptoms in schizophrenia and more prominent mania in bipolar disorder. Conclusions: COPE illustrates the actuality of introducing and the challenges of operating a rural EIS for FEP. Prospective follow-up studies of the 5-year COPE cohort should inform on the effectiveness of this EIS model in relation to long-term outcome in psychotic illness across what appear to be arbitrary diagnostic boundaries at FEP.

Receptiveness to participating in cannabis research in pregnancy: a survey study at The Ottawa Hospital

Background: The prevalence of cannabis use among pregnant individuals in Canada is increasing. In the design of new cohort studies to evaluate the patterns and outcomes of cannabis use in pregnancy, consideration must be given to the factors influencing participation, data sharing, and contribution of biological samples. Our objective was to assess the willingness of pregnant individuals to participate in prospective research during pregnancy. Methods: We surveyed pregnant individuals receiving obstetrical care through The Ottawa Hospital in Ottawa, Canada. The survey consisted of 23 dichotomous (yes/no), multiple-choice, Likert scale, and open-ended questions. Individuals were provided with a hypothetical research scenario and asked to report on the likelihood of their participation, use and storage of personal health information and contribution of maternal and newborn samples. Individuals provided motivating and deterring factors related to research participation. Descriptive statistics included frequencies (n) and percentages (%) for categorical variables. Continuous variables were described using means and standard deviations. Results: A total of 84 survey responses were collected. The mean age of respondents was 32.6(±5.3) years. Respondents were predominantly Caucasian (79%), college/university educated (85%) with a household income of ≥$100,000 (64%). There was a high degree of willingness to participate in prospective research by sharing data and biological samples. The most commonly cited motivating and deterring factors for participating in future research were a desire to contribute to science and health information (79%) and fear of privacy invasion (17%), respectively. Conclusions: Pregnant individuals receiving care at The Ottawa Hospital are willing to participate in prospective research studies, including those related to cannabis use. Survey respondents were predominantly of higher socioeconomic status, and few individuals reported cannabis use during pregnancy. Future studies should accommodate multiple recruitment strategies and flexible study designs to encourage enrollment from and retention across diverse sociodemographic communities.

Review of condition monitoring and fault diagnosis for marine power systems

The use of condition monitoring and fault diagnosis (CMFD) in marine power systems significantly influences ship safety. This study divides the development of CMFD for marine power systems into three periods and reviews the content, state and limitations of CMFD research for each period. According to the research achievements and engineering experience of the authors’ team, typical application cases are introduced for CMFD in ships, including CMFD platforms on engineering ships, salvage ships, container ships and ro-ro ships powered by solar photovoltaic systems. Finally, prospective research directions are proposed for CMFD in marine power systems, considering the research status of CMFD and the trend toward intelligent and eco-friendly ships.

TFP Technology As Theadvanced Method Of Manufacture Of 3D Reinforced Preforms Frompolymer Composite Materials

This paper contains an overview of world trends in the development of the TFP technologyenabling 3D printing of carbon fiber reinforced plastics. The review of the equipment used for the automated preformpatching is included. Primary factors restraining the large-scale implementation of the TFP technology in the manufacture are identified, and prospective research trends for further development of the technology are proposed.

BIOMARKERS FOR EARLY DIAGNOSTICS OF BRAIN TUMORS

Early diagnostics of brain tumors – is an important component of combined therapy for treatment neoplasms. Searching markers of glioma allowing to diagnose tumors at an early stage (before appearance of some changes on MRI and CT scans), to predict their course and to estimate the effectiveness of the performed therapy is a prospective research direction. Now-a-days the properties of microRNK and infrared spectroscopy of blood serum is being studied actively. This review covers results of the performed studies, confirming the possibility of application of such methods as biomarkers of glioma.

THE RELATIONSHIP PREDICE SCORE AND MORTALITY 30 DAYS IN CHRONIC HEART FAILURE PATIENTS

The Background : Mortality rate of heart failure patients are increasing even they have a good treatment. Therefore, it should be possible to make a prognostic for chronic heart failure patients with use an easy parameter namely predice score. The aim of the study : To assess the ability of the predice score to predict mortality within 30 days in patients with chronic heart failure. The Method : We did this prospective research started from 1st July 2016 until 31st December 2016 with concerned chronic heart failure patients as many as 44 patients. We counted the association grade with use Man whitney U. The Result : The results showed that there was a signicant relationship between predice score and mortality (p = 0.004). The mean predice score in the living subjects was 11.77 (SD: 4.07) Meanwhile, the mean predice score of the subjects who died was 17.18 ( SD:2,85). The Conclusion: Predice Score can be used to predict 30-day mortality in chronic heart failure patients who experience worsening because it is statistically signicant (p<0,05).