Longitudinal pathways between emotional difficulties and school absenteeism in middle childhood: Evidence from developmental cascades

Emotional difficulties are associated with both authorized and unauthorized school absence, but there has been little longitudinal research and the temporal nature of these associations remains unclear. This study presents three-wave random-intercepts panel models of longitudinal reciprocal relationships between teacher-reported emotional difficulties and authorized and unauthorized school absence in 2,542 English children aged 6 to 9 years old at baseline, who were followed-up annually. Minor differences in the stability effects were observed between genders but only for the authorized absence model. Across all time points, children with greater emotional difficulties had more absences, and vice versa (authorized: ρ = .23–.29, p < .01; unauthorized: ρ = .28, p < .01). At the within-person level, concurrent associations showed that emotional difficulties were associated with greater authorized (β = .15–.17, p < .01) absence at Time 3 only, but with less unauthorized (β = −.08–.13, p < .05) absence at Times 1 and 2. In cross-lagged pathways, neither authorized nor unauthorized absence predicted later emotional difficulties, and emotional difficulties did not predict later authorized absence at any time point. However, greater emotional difficulties were associated with fewer unauthorized absences across time (β = −13–.22, p < .001). The implications of these findings are discussed.

EXPRESS: Handling Endogenous Regressors using Copulas: A Generalization to Linear Panel Models with Fixed Effects and Correlated Regressors

This paper proposes a panel data generalization for a recently suggested IVfree estimation method that builds on joint estimation. The author shows how the method can be extended to linear panel models by combining fixed-effects transformations with the common GLS transformation to allow for heterogeneous intercepts. To account for between-regressor dependence, the author proposes determining the joint distribution of the error term and all explanatory variables using a Gaussian copula function, with the distinction that some variables are endogenous and the others are exogenous. The identification does not require any instrumental variables if the regressor-error relation is nonlinear. With a normally distributed error, nonnormally distributed endogenous regressors are therefore required. Monte Carlo simulations assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator and demonstrate its superiority to conventional instrumental variable estimation. A specific advantage of the proposed method is that the estimator is unbiased in dynamic panel models with small time dimensions and serially correlated errors; therefore, it is a useful alternative to GMM-style instrumentation. The practical applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated via an empirical example.

LA COMPOSICIÓN DE LA CAPACIDAD TRIBUTARIA: EVIDENCIA PARA UN PANEL DE PAÍSES

<p>En este documento analizo la relación que existe entre el crecimiento económico, el comercio exterior y la capacidad tributaria. Sostengo que los impuestos no necesariamente distorsionan la eficiencia y que dependen de la actividad económica. Para documentar la hipótesis realizo cuatro modelos panel cointegrados para un grupo de 55 países y su subsecuente división de acuerdo con tres niveles de ingreso para el periodo de 1990-2018. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el crecimiento económico es una condición <em>sine qua non</em> para determinar la capacidad recaudatoria pero no es suficiente en aquellos países con desigualdad económica. Por lo tanto, es necesario estimular el desarrollo económico y promover reformas fiscales progresivas.</p><p> </p><p align="center">THE COMPOSITION OF TAX EFFORT: EVIDENCE FOR A PANEL OF COUNTRIES.</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>This document analyzes the relationship between economic growth, foreign trade and tax capacity. It is argued that taxes do not distort efficiency and that they depend on economic activity. In order to empirically support our hypothesis, four cointegrated panel models are carried out for a group of 55 countries and their subsequent division according to three income levels for the period 1990-2018. The results obtained show that economic growth is a <em>sine qua non</em> condition for determining tax capacity, but it is not enough in countries plagued with economic inequality. Therefore, it is necessary to stimulate economic development and promote progressive fiscal reforms.</p>

Bidirectional Associations Between Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms and Loneliness During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Models With Fixed Effects

Background: Understanding the direction and magnitude of mental health-loneliness associations across time is important to understand how best to prevent and treat mental health and loneliness. This study used weekly data collected over 8 weeks throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to expand previous findings and using dynamic panel models with fixed effects which account for all time-invariant confounding and reverse causation.Methods: Prospective data on a convenience and snowball sample from all 50 US states and the District of Colombia (n = 2,361 with ≥2 responses, 63.8% female; 76% retention rate) were collected weekly via online survey at nine consecutive timepoints (April 3–June 3, 2020). Anxiety and depressive symptoms and loneliness were assessed at each timepoint and participants reported the COVID-19 containment strategies they were following. Dynamic panel models with fixed effects examined bidirectional associations between anxiety and depressive symptoms and loneliness, and associations of COVID-19 containment strategies with these outcomes.Results: Depressive symptoms were associated with small increases in both anxiety symptoms (β = 0.065, 95% CI = 0.022–0.109; p = 0.004) and loneliness (β = 0.019, 0.008–0.030; p = 0.001) at the subsequent timepoint. Anxiety symptoms were associated with a small subsequent increase in loneliness (β = 0.014, 0.003–0.025; p = 0.015) but not depressive symptoms (β = 0.025, −0.020–0.070; p = 0.281). Loneliness was strongly associated with subsequent increases in both depressive (β = 0.309, 0.159–0.459; p &lt; 0.001) and anxiety (β = 0.301, 0.165–0.436; p &lt; 0.001) symptoms. Compared to social distancing, adhering to stay-at-home orders or quarantining were not associated with anxiety and depressive symptoms or loneliness (both p ≥ 0.095).Conclusions: High loneliness may be a key risk factor for the development of future anxiety or depressive symptoms, underscoring the need to combat or prevent loneliness both throughout and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 containment strategies were not associated with mental health, indicating that other factors may explain previous reports of mental health deterioration throughout the pandemic.

The Longitudinal Interplay Between Social Network and Psychopathology in Multi-Problem Young Adult Men; Separating Within-and Between-Person Effects

Young adulthood is characterized by many life changes. Especially for young men with problems across different life domains (i.e., multi-problem), these changes may entail obstacles. Incidences of psychopathology increase during young adulthood and at the same time important shifts in social networks – such as changing relations with peers and parents, isolation, or deviant peer affiliation – take place. The present study examined the longitudinal interplay between psychopathology and social network characteristics over the course of 1 year in multi-problem young adults, at both between-person and within-person level. A sample of 696 multi-problem young adult men (age 18–27) participated in this three wave study. We used traditional cross-lagged panel models (CLPM) to examine how social network characteristics and psychopathology are related at the between-person level, and random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPM) to examine within-person links. Between-person associations between internalizing problems and social networks were bidirectional, and externalizing problems were related to problematic social network characteristics, but not vice versa. At the within-person level, no such cross-lagged paths were found. Overall, results indicated that in multi-problem young adults, social network characteristics and psychopathology are related. However, looking at within-person processes this relation is not reciprocal.

Economic Cycle and Bank Liquidity Hoarding: Are They Procyclical or Countercyclical?

The paper empirically examines bank liquidity hoarding fluctuations over the economic cycle and provides further evidence on the heterogeneous cyclicality of bank liquidity hoarding across different banks in Vietnam for the period 2007–2019. Using both static panel models with the fixed-effects regression using corrected Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and dynamic panel models with the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator, we find that the liquidity hoarding of banks is procyclical. Concretely bank liquidity hoarding on- and off-balance sheets tends to increase during economic upturns and decrease during economic downturns. Our additional analysis yields a consistent pattern that financially weaker banks are more procyclical than their stronger counterparts. During booms and busts, the behaviour of hoarding liquidity is more pronounced for banks with smaller sizes, less capital, more risk, and less profit. This heterogeneity also contributes to understanding the core mechanism behind our main findings, further confirming the precautionary motive of bank liquidity hoarding.