The use of Cohort Size Shrinkage Index (CSSI) to quantify regional famine intensity during the Chinese famine of 1959-61

There has been a growing interest in studying the causes and impact of the Great Chinese Famine of 1959-61. The Cohort Size Shrinkage Index (CSSI) is the most widely used measure to examine famine intensity and was used in at least 28 Chinese famine studies to date. We examined the potential impact of violations of three requirements for a valid CSSI measure: reliable information on cohort size by year of birth; a stable trend of cohort size by year of birth; and the absence of significant regional migration. We used data from the 1% China 2000 Census to examine the trend of cohort size over time and concentrated on the time window between 1950-70 to exclude policies and events with a large impact on birth trends other than the famine itself. Across China we established a significant difference in cohort size trends between pre-famine births and post-famine births, violating one of the main requirements for a valid CSSI measure. This leads to systematic differences in CSSI depending on what non-famine years are selected for comparison. At the province level, CSSIs estimated based on pre- & post-famine births tend to overestimate famine intensity at higher exposure levels and underestimate intensity at lower levels compared to CSSIs based on pre-famine births alone. This is problematic and demonstrates that the CSSI is not as robust an estimator of famine intensity as had been assumed previously. We recommend therefore that all CSSI should be based on pre-famine birth trends. Using data from Sichuan province, we demonstrate a less pronounced dose-response relation between famine intensity and tuberculosis outcomes using pre-famine based CSSI as compared to reported patterns based on pre- & post-famine based CSSI. We encourage researchers to re-examine their results of Chinese famine studies as local differences in cohort size of pre-famine and post-famine births may lead to significant discrepancies of CSSI estimation and change the interpretation of their findings.

Venezuelan migrant issue has wider regional impact

Significance Signs of modest domestic economic recovery will not offset the drivers of outmigration. Xenophobia and populist agitation are fuelling violence against Venezuelan and other migrants, as most recently seen in Chile’s presidential election contest. Impacts Near-term government continuity in Venezuela suggests that migrant outflows will continue. As governments turn to more restrictive immigration strategies, current patterns of intra-regional migration will intensify. Politicians in the region will increasingly leverage political capital from anti-immigrant sentiment.

MIGRATION MOBILITY OF THE CARPATHIAN REGION YOUTH: PROPOSITION OF IMPROVEMENT OF INFORMATION -ANALYTIC SUPPORT OF REGIONAL MIGRATION POLICY

The development of the new information-driven society along with the penetration of the globalization processes in all social and economic activities became the entities of the liberalization of the migration relations, which simplify in general the youth moving and increase its mobility. Based on statistics and administrative data analysis about youth migration from Carpathian Region it was determined that quick spreading of the positive migration aspirations among the youthful population gets new looms and can lead to the migration deprivation ramp-ups in the Carpathian Region in the future. Mainstreaming of the external migration climate and escalation of the problem are also heavily mandated by the entity of the passive state and regional migration policy, which manifests through immature system of the real complex migration registration, unfinished state of system of the institutional-organizational and institutional-legal regulation of the migration processes at the regional and local levels, low quality and low organizational and technical options of the migration services’ infrastructure elements, insufficient use of the resources of the migration exchange programs in the field of education, science, innovation and research activities, tourism, investment and business projects, the lack of regional programs of the stimulation of the educational and labor migrants’ re-emigration. In the attempt to eliminate gaps in migration policy and minimize the risks and threats of the growth of migration activity of the Carpathian Region youth, the instruments and methods of external migration monitoring system’s improvement, the development of the regional databases of migration structural-dynamic characteristics, the development of migration policy preventive instruments aimed to regulation of the regional labor markets, and the corresponding implementation of the migration services market infrastructure’s development, stimulation of the educational and labor migrants’ re-emigration, improvement of the migration policy institutional support in the Carpathian Region were proposed.