Policy action for green restructuring in specialized industrial regions

Combining insights from evolutionary economic geography and socio-technical transition studies, this article provides a conceptual framework and a theory-informed empirical analysis of policy dimensions for regional green restructuring. The combination of these two perspectives allows the application and confrontation of analytical concepts with the particularities of regions, with a specific focus on the role of policy to ensure directionality. Empirically our discussion is illustrated by a case study of Western Norway, a specialized industrial region. We focus on the role of policy for the development of new green technology pathways within this region. We observe that different industry transition pathways within a region are influenced by various combinations of policy action, and that policy for regional green restructuring includes complex policy mixes initiated at different levels of governance. Our framework provides a suitable scheme for assessing the role of policy for green restructuring in regions.

Engines of learning? Policy instruments, cities and climate governance

This contribution investigates how combinations of instruments, often called policy mixes, enhance policy learning processes at different levels. It analyzes the European Union’s (EU) Covenant of Mayors (CoM) that is underpinned by a set of learning instruments, to promote local action for sustainable energy and climate. The piece offers an original framework to explore whether and how the Covenant enhances learning at the level of European institutions and among local governments. Drawing on an extensive documentary review and elite interviews in four countries (Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK), the analysis shows that the CoM instrument mix has enhanced certain elements of learning within the actors leading the Covenant as well as many of the local governments within and outside the EU, but only if certain conditions operate, such as political leadership, individual motivation and knowledge and regional coordination mechanisms.

On the effectiveness of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns: Pan metron ariston

I examine the dynamics of confirmed case (and death) growth rates conditional on different levels of severity in implemented NPIs, the mobility of citizens and other non restrictive policies. To account for the endogeneity of many of these variables, and the possibility of correlated latent (unobservable) country characteristics, I estimate a four structural model of the evolution of case growth rates, death growth rates, average changes in mobility and the determination of the severity of NPIs. There are strongly decreasing returns to the stringency of NPIs, especially for extreme lockdowns, as no significant improvement in the main outcome measures is found beyond NPIs corresponding to a Stringency Index range of 51-60 for cases and 41-50 for deaths. A non-restrictive policy of extensive and open testing has half of the impact on pandemic dynamics as the optimal NPIs, with none of the associated social and economic costs resulting from the latter. Decreases in mobility were found to increase, rather than decrease case growth rates, consistent with arguments that within-household transmission, resulting from spending more time at residences due to mobility restrictions, may outweigh the benefits of reduced community transmission. Vaccinations led to a fall in case and death growth rates, however the effect size must be re-evaluated when more data becomes available. Governments conditioned policy choice on recent pandemic dynamics, and were found to de-escalate the associated stringency of implemented NPIs more cautiously than in their escalation, i.e., policy mixes exhibited significant hysteresis. Finally, at least 90% of the maximum effectiveness of NPIs can be achieved by policies with an average Stringency index of 31-40, without restricting internal movement or imposing stay at home measures, and only recommending (not enforcing) closures on workplaces and schools, accompanied by public informational campaigns. Consequently, the positive effects on case and death growth rates of voluntary behavioral changes in response to beliefs about the severity of the pandemic, generally trumped those arising from mandatory behavioral restrictions. The exception being more stringent mandatory restrictions on gatherings and international movement, which were found to be effective. The findings suggest that further work should be directed at re-evaluating the effectiveness of NPIs, particularly towards empirically determining the optimal policy mix and associated stringency of individual NPIs.