The causes and consequences of fisheries conflict around the Horn of Africa

Fisheries conflict is an underappreciated threat to the stability and health of communities. Declining fish populations, rising demand for seafood, and efforts to reduce illegal fishing are increasing the risk that conflict over fisheries resources will undermine stability and peace. Here, we investigate the frequency, causes, and consequences of fisheries conflict in six countries around the Horn of Africa and East Africa (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Yemen) between 1990 and 2017. Fisheries conflict events were cataloged from news reports, and events were characterized by the date, location, actors, consequences, and drivers of the conflict. We found the rate of fisheries conflict is gradually increasing in the region, with spikes in conflict driven by the arrival of foreign fishing boats or international naval vessels. Conflict was caused primarily by illegal fishing, foreign fishing, weak governance, limits on access to fishing grounds, and criminal activities including piracy. Two-thirds of all conflict events occurred in Kenyan and Somali waters, with areas of high conflict intensity in the Lake Victoria region, near the Somali coastline, and in the southern Red Sea. During this period, 684 fisheries conflict events in the region resulted in over 400 fatalities, nearly 500 injuries, and over 4,000 arrests.

Access to primary healthcare Services in Conflict-Affected Fragile States: a subnational descriptive analysis of educational and wealth disparities in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, and Nigeria

Background Measuring and improving equitable access to care is a necessity to achieve universal health coverage. Pre-pandemic estimates showed that most conflict-affected and fragile situations were off-track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals on health and equity by 2030. Yet, there is a paucity of studies examining health inequalities in these settings. This study addresses the literature gap by applying a conflict intensity lens to the analysis of disparities in access to essential Primary Health Care (PHC) services in four conflict-affected fragile states: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali and Nigeria. Methods For each studied country, disparities in geographic and financial access to care were compared across education and wealth strata in areas with differing levels of conflict intensity. The Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program were the main sources of information on access to PHC and conflict events, respectively. To define conflict intensity, household clusters were linked to conflict events within a 50-km distance. A cut-off of more than two conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population was used to differentiate medium or high intensity conflict from no or low intensity conflict. We utilized three measures to assess inequalities: an absolute difference, a concentration index, and a multivariate logistic regression coefficient. Each disparity measure was compared based on the intensity of conflict the year the DHS data was collected. Results We found that PHC access varied across subnational regions in the four countries studied; with more prevalent financial than geographic barriers to care. The magnitude of both educational and wealth disparities in access to care was higher with geographic proximity to medium or high intensity conflict. A higher magnitude of wealth rather than educational disparities was also likely to be observed in the four studied contexts. Meanwhile, only Nigeria showed statistically significant interaction between conflict intensity and educational disparities in access to care. Conclusion Both educational and wealth disparities in access to PHC services can be exacerbated by geographic proximity to organized violence. This paper provides additional evidence that, despite limitations, household surveys can contribute to healthcare assessment in conflict-affected and fragile settings.

The use of health facility data to assess the effects of armed conflicts on maternal and child health: experience from the Kivu, DR Congo

Background In conflict-affected settings, data on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) are often lacking for priority setting and timely decision-making. We aimed to describe the levels and trends in RMNCH indicators within Kivu provinces between 2015 and 2018, by linking conflict data with health facility (HF) data from the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Methods We used data from the DHIS2 for the period 2015–2018, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey, the 2018 Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Health zones were categorised in low, moderate and high conflict intensity level, based on an annual conflict death rate. We additionally defined a monthly conflict death rate and a conflict event-days rate as measures of conflict intensity and insecurity. Outcomes were completion of four antenatal care visits, health facility deliveries, caesarean sections and pentavalent vaccine coverage. We assessed data quality and analyzed coverage and trends in RMNCH indicators graphically, by conflict categories and using HF data aggregated annually. We used a series of fixed-effect regression models to examine the potential dose-response effect of varying conflict intensity and insecurity on RMNCH. Results The overall HF reporting was good, ranging between 83.3 and 93.2% and tending to be lower in health zones with high conflict intensity in 2016 and 2017 before converging in 2018. Despite the increasing number of conflict-affected health zones over time, more in North-Kivu than in South-Kivu, we could not identify any clear pattern of variation in RMNCH coverage both by conflict intensity and insecurity. North-Kivu province had consistently reported better RMNCH indicators than South-Kivu, despite being more affected by conflict. The Kivu as a whole recorded higher coverage than the national level. Coverage of RMNCH services calculated from HF data was consistent with population-based surveys, despite year-to-year fluctuation among health zones and across conflict-intensity categories. Conclusions Although good in general, the HF reporting rate in the Kivu was negatively impacted by conflict intensity especially at the beginning of the DHIS2’s rolling-up. Routine HF data appeared useful for assessing and monitoring trends in RMNCH service coverage, including in areas with high-intensity conflict.

An improved conflicting-evidence combination method based on the redistribution of the basic probability assignment

Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is widely applied in various fields related to information fusion. However, the results are counterintuitive when highly conflicting evidence is fused with Dempster’s rule of combination. Many improved combination methods have been developed to address conflicting evidence. Nevertheless, all of these approaches have inherent flaws. To solve the existing counterintuitive problem more effectively and less conservatively, an improved combination method for conflicting evidence based on the redistribution of the basic probability assignment is proposed. First, the conflict intensity and the unreliability of the evidence are calculated based on the consistency degree, conflict degree and similarity coefficient among the evidence. Second, the redistribution equation of the basic probability assignment is constructed based on the unreliability and conflict intensity, which realizes the redistribution of the basic probability assignment. Third, to avoid excessive redistribution of the basic probability assignment, the precision degree of the evidence obtained by information entropy is used as the correction factor to modify the basic probability assignment for the second time. Finally, Dempster’s rule of combination is used to fuse the modified basic probability assignment. Several different types of examples and actual data sets are given to illustrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method. Furthermore, the comparative analysis reveals the proposed method to be better at obtaining the right results than other related methods.

Access to Primary Healthcare Services in Conflict-Affected Fragile States: A Subnational Descriptive Analysis of Educational and Wealth Disparities in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, and Nigeria

Background Measuring and improving equitable access to care is a necessity to achieve universal health coverage. Pre-pandemic estimates showed that most conflict-affected and fragile situations were off-track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals on health and equity by 2030. Yet, there is a paucity of studies examining health inequalities in these settings. This study addresses the literature gap by applying a conflict intensity lens to the analysis of disparities in access to essential Primary Health care (PHC) services in four conflict-affected fragile states: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali and Nigeria. Methods For each studied country, disparities in geographic and financial access to care were compared across education and wealth strata in areas with differing levels of conflict intensity. The Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program were the main sources of information on access to PHC and conflict events, respectively. To define conflict intensity, household clusters were linked to conflict events within a 50-km distance. A cut-off of more than two conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population was used to differentiate medium or high intensity conflict from no or low intensity conflict. We utilized three measures to assess inequalities: an absolute difference, a concentration index, and a multivariate logistic regression coefficient. Each disparity measure was compared based on the intensity of conflict the year the DHS data was collected. Results We found that PHC access varied across subnational regions in the four countries studied; with more prevalent financial than geographic barriers to care. The magnitude of both educational and wealth disparities in access to care was higher with geographic proximity to medium or high intensity conflict. A higher magnitude of wealth rather than educational disparities was also likely to be observed in the four studied contexts. Meanwhile, we only found few examples of statistical interaction between conflict intensity and either wealth or educational disparities in access to care. Conclusion Both educational and wealth disparities in access to PHC services can be exacerbated by geographic proximity to organized violence. This paper provides additional evidence that, despite limitations, household surveys can contribute to healthcare assessment in conflict-affected and fragile settings.

Gender, Internal Armed Conflict, and High Court Decision-Making in Transitioning Societies

Building on research that applies the policy deference model to high court decision-making during external war, we propose that conflict intensity, political government's preference on liberalization, and the gender of appellant impact the manner in which courts follow policy deference during internal war in transitioning countries. Contextually, we argue that shifts in women's roles and gender relations during internal conflict in transitioning societies condition the manner in which civilian courts make decisions on civil and political rights cases. During external war in advanced democracies, policy deference infers that courts will rule more conservatively on civil and political rights cases. Using habeas corpus cases as a representation of civil and political rights’ protection from El Salvador's civil war period (1980–1992) and two measures of conflict intensity, our findings indicate that the court's decision-making process deviates from conventional expectations derived from the policy deference model in three ways: (1) conflict intensity solely affects the court's decision-making on habeas corpus cases involving men; (2) the political government's choice for political liberalization affects the court's decision-making on both women and men cases; and (3) gender conditions the manner in which policy deference applies in a society that is experiencing societal change.

Causes and Prevention of Crimes of Resisting Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures—from the Perspective of Social Conflict Theory

By studying the social conflict theories of Lewis Coser, Ralf G. Dahrendorf and Randall Collins, this paper analyzes the data distribution and specific cases of violent crimes of resisting epidemic prevention and control measures from three aspects of conflict intensity, realistic conflict and unrealistic conflict, and inter role conflict, and explores the causes of such crimes. In order to reduce and prevent the occurrence of this kind of crime, some countermeasures such as the effective sanctions, the feasible communication channels and the strengthening of civic awareness are put forward.

Conditions of External Military Interventions in African Internal Conflicts: Complexity of Conflict Intensity, Social Dislocation and Raw Materials

External interventions are one of the most important aspects of intrastate conflicts since a majority of them are significantly internationalised, especially in Africa where the interventions most often occur. Factors that lead to the military intervention remain, however, puzzling. The authors therefore apply the method of fs/QCA to understand not only conditionsbehind intervention into African intrastate conflicts, but also to catch interactions among them. The results show high complexity of various possible combinations, mainly of high intensity, massive social dislocation or presence of raw materials in case of interventions in African internal conflicts

Land-Use Conflict Identification from the Perspective of Construction Space Expansion: An Evaluation Method Based on ‘Likelihood-Exposure-Consequence’

Land-use conflict (LUC) is a major problem of land management in the context of rapid urbanization. Conflict identification plays an important role in the development and protection of land space. Considering the possibility of, exposure to, and negative impacts of LUC, we explore the probability of land-use cover change (LUCC), policy constraints, and ecosystem service value (ESV) and build a conflict identification model based on the LEC concept of risk assessment. Taking Daye City as an example, we classify the conflict intensity and delimit the key conflict areas. At the same time, a composite classification system is constructed to analyze the spatial characteristics and internal mechanism of conflict. We find that the conflict between construction and ecological space is the main conflict in Daye City (P.R. China), which is widely distributed. However, the conflict between construction and agricultural space, which is mainly distributed near the center of Daye City, cannot be ignored.