multivariate model
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2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshihiro Sakakibara ◽  
Yuichiro Shindo ◽  
Daisuke Kobayashi ◽  
Masahiro Sano ◽  
Junya Okumura ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP. Methods Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study. Results The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2–3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/μL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO2/FIO2 ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200–300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO2 (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO3− (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2–2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4–5, 6–7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Conclusions ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points. Trial registration This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana García-Martín ◽  
María Abellás Sequeiros ◽  
Ariana González Gómez ◽  
Luis Miguel Rincón Díaz ◽  
Juan Manuel Monteagudo Ruiz ◽  
...  

Abstract AimsThe management of patients with asymptomatic significant aortic regurgitation (sAR) is often challenging and appropriate timing of aortic valve surgery remains controversial. Prognostic value of diastolic parameters has been demonstrated in several cardiac diseases. In particular, left atrial (LA) function has been shown to be an important determinant of morbimortality. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prognostic significance of diastolic function in asymptomatic patients with sAR.Methods and resultsA total of 126 patients with asymptomatic sAR were included. Conventional echocardiographic systolic and diastolic function parameters were assessed. LA and left ventricular (LV) auto-strain analysis was performed in a subgroup of 57 patients. During a mean follow up of 33±19 months, 25(19,8%) patients reached the combined end-point. Univariate analysis showed that LV volumes, LV ejection fraction (LVEF), LV-GLS, E wave, E/e’ ratio, LA volume and LA reservoir strain (LASr) were significant predictors of events. Multivariate model-1 that tested all classical echocardiographic variables statistically significant in the univariate model showed that LVEDV [HR=1,02;95% CI:1,01-1,03;(p<0,001)] and E/e’ ratio [HR=1,12;95% CI:1,03-1,23;(p=0,01)] were significant predictors of events. In the subgroup of patients with auto-strain analyzed, a multivariate model-2 including the previous significant variables for the first model as well as LASr, showed that LVEDV [HR=1,05;95% CI:1,01-1,08;(p=0,016)] and LASr [HR=0,8;95% CI:0,65-0,98;(p<0,035)] were the most significant predictors of cardiovascular events.ConclusionsIn this population of asymptomatic patients with sAR and normal LV systolic function, baseline diastolic parameters were prognostic markers of cardiovascular events; among them, LASr played a strong independent predictor role.


2022 ◽  
pp. 000313482110604
Author(s):  
Alison R. Goldenberg ◽  
Lauren M. Willcox ◽  
Daria M. Abolghasemi ◽  
Renjian Jiang ◽  
Zheng Z. Wei ◽  
...  

Background Patient and socioeconomic factors both contribute to disparities in post-mastectomy reconstruction (PMR) rates. We sought to explore PMR patterns across the US and to determine if PMR rates were associated with Medicaid expansion. Methods The NCDB was used to identify women who underwent PMR between 2004-2016. The data was stratified by race, state Medicaid expansion status, and region. A multivariate model was fit to determine the association between Medicaid expansion and receipt of PMR. Results In comparison to Caucasian women receiving PMR in Medicaid expansion states, African American (AA) women in Medicaid expansion states were less likely to receive PMR (OR .96 [.92-1.00] P < .001). Patients in the Northeast (NE) had better PMR rates vs any other region in the US, for both Caucasian and AA women (Caucasian NE ref, Caucasian-South .80 [.77-.83] vs AA NE 1.11 [1.04-1.19], AA-South (.60 [.58-.63], P < .001). Interestingly, AA patients residing in the NE had the highest receipt of PMR 1.11 (1.04-1.19), even higher than their Caucasian counterparts residing in the same region (ref). Rural AA women had the lowest rates of PMR vs rural Caucasian women (.40 [.28-.58] vs .79 [.73-.85], P < .001]. Discussion Racial disparities in PMR rates persisted despite Medicaid expansion. When stratified by region, however, AA patients in the NE had higher rates of PMR than AA women in other regions. The largest disparities were seen in AA women in the rural US. Breast cancer disparities continue to be a complex problem that was not entirely mitigated by improved insurance coverage.


Author(s):  
Mahnaz Khatiban ◽  
Seyedeh Nayereh Falahan ◽  
Ali Reza Soltanian

Improving ethical practice needs recognizing the relationship between moral reasoning and moral courage among nurses. We examined factors (moral reasoning, practical consideration, moral dilemmas familiarity, and demographic and work characteristics) associated with moral courage among nurses. A cross-sectional design was run at all five hospitals affiliated to Hamadan University of Medical Sciences in west of Iran. A proportionate random sampling due to the total size of the nurse population in each hospital, 224 eligible nurses were completed the study questionnaires: demographic-work characteristics, Professional Moral Courage (PMC), and Nursing Dilemma Test. The relationships were examined by multiple regression analysis. Participants reported a more than moderate level of moral reasoning and PMC (43.21±5.98 and 56.16±10.18 respectively). The multivariate model showed the nurses’ PMC is positively predisposed with moral reasoning (β=0.21, p<0.01), but negatively with practical consideration (β=-0.16, p<0.01). More moral courage was found in the nurses who were never married (p<0.001), graduated from a public university (p<0.01), working in the critical care and emergency environments, as well as night shifts (all p<0.001). Moral reasoning is a predictor of moral courage, and both should be considered in designing nursing education to improve ethical nursing practice.  


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 160-185
Author(s):  
Pedro L. Valls Pereira ◽  
André Barbosa De Oliveira

The financial market has non-linear patterns, with different return behavior in bull versus bear markets. This article uses multivariate model estimates to study portfolios in changing conditions, and develops investment strategies for portfolios in light of uncertainty about the bear or bull status of the stock market. Portfolios were optimized for the main stocks listed on the Brazilian market index Ibovespa. The portfolios proposed with estimates of changing market status outperformed others over the analyzed period, with rebalancing adjustments made either weekly or monthly.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Sombetzki ◽  
Petra Lücker ◽  
Manja Ehmke ◽  
Sabrina Bock ◽  
Martina Littmann ◽  
...  

Introduction: With the increased emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, the impact on schools and preschools remains a matter of debate. To ensure that schools and preschools are kept open safely, the identification of factors influencing the extent of outbreaks is of importance.Aim: To monitor dynamics of COVID-19 infections in schools and preschools and identify factors influencing the extent of outbreaks.Methods: In this prospective observational study we analyzed routine surveillance data of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany, from calendar week (CW) 32, 2020 to CW19, 2021 regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection events in schools and preschools considering changes in infection control measures over time. A multivariate linear regression model was fitted to evaluate factors influencing the number of students, teachers and staff tested positive following index cases in schools and preschools. Due to an existing multicollinearity in the common multivariate regression model between the variables “face mask obligation for children” and “face mask obligation for adults”, two further separate regression models were set up (Multivariate Model Adults and Multivariate Model Children).Results: We observed a significant increase in secondary cases in preschools in the first quarter of 2021 (CW8 to CW15, 2021), and simultaneously a decrease in secondary cases in schools. In multivariate regression analysis, the strongest predictor of the extent of the outbreaks was the teacher/ caregiver mask obligation (B = −1.9; 95% CI: −2.9 to −1.0; p &lt; 0.001). Furthermore, adult index cases (adult only or child+adult combinations) increased the likelihood of secondary cases (B = 1.3; 95% CI: 0.9 to 1.8; p &lt; 0.001). The face mask obligation for children also showed a significant reduction in the number of secondary cases (B = −0.6; 95% CI: −0.9 to −0.2; p = 0.004.Conclusion: The present study indicates that outbreak events at schools and preschools are effectively contained by an obligation for adults and children to wear face masks.


Author(s):  
J. W. E. W. De Silva ◽  
S. P. Abeysundara

System dynamics simulation software, in general, depicts graphical interpretations. The values of the parameters, on the other hand, are required for prediction. The goal of this research is to develop a novel multivariate model that can predict flow parameters while simulating flow under various scenarios. The project involves looking for variations in the streamline and constructing a new multivariate model for each elliptic cylinder system's velocity magnitude. Furthermore, the flow zones were split into three groups based on streamline behavior. As a result, utilizing simulation outputs, new models for flow zones are developed using linear and semiparametric regression. The best fitted model for each flow region was determined using mean square error (MSE), root of mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Based on the fitted smoothing curve of the velocity magnitude, a summary statistic and variability may be assessed. The presented models can be used to predict magnitude in any point of fluid flow using these models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Terri Crudup ◽  
Linna Li ◽  
Jennifer Wright Dorr ◽  
Elizabeth Lawson ◽  
Rachel Stout ◽  
...  

Objective. Integrative oncology is widely used by patients with breast cancer. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the survival outcomes of breast cancer patients and the level of involvement in integrative oncology at the institutions treating them. Methods. Claims-based data were used to find 4,815 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients treated between January 2013 and December 2014 for survival analysis. A scoring system was developed by asking oncologists about their institutions’ efforts to educate, support, and provide funding for 12 complementary and lifestyle approaches. Cohort analysis using two-tailed chi-square and a separate multivariate model using SMOTE and lasso regression were used. Nine variables across patient and institutional profiles were included. The model coefficients were exponentiated and presented as odds ratios. Results. 173 patients mapped to 103 institutions and 103 oncologists. The median patient age was 51, and 8% were metastatic. Institutions were scored for integrative oncology involvement and placed into four cohorts. Low-scoring institutions showed less effort to educate, support, and provide integrative therapies compared to others. The 5-year survival of patients in the low cohort was directionally but not significantly lower than others. In the multivariate model, a composite integrative oncology score was shown to increase 5-year survival odds three times for institutions in the low-mid cohort and 48% in the mid-high, compared to the low. Conclusion. Crossing the threshold beyond ‘low’ involvement in integrative oncology represents a new path to incremental survival benefit for many cancer patients. Entities invested in the survival of breast cancer patients should increase education, access, and funding for a core set of six therapies: nutrition counselling, exercise counselling, patient support groups, spiritual services, meditation, and psycho-oncology support.


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