A structured additive modeling of diabetes and hypertension in Northeast India

Background Multiple factors are associated with the risk of diabetes and hypertension. In India, they vary widely even from one district to another. Therefore, strategies for controlling diabetes and hypertension should appropriately address local risk factors and take into account the specific causes of the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension at sub-population levels and in specific settings. This paper examines the demographic and socioeconomic risk factors as well as the spatial disparity of diabetes and hypertension among adults aged 15–49 years in Northeast India. Methods The study used data from the Indian Demographic Health Survey, which was conducted across the country between 2015 and 2016. All men and women between the ages of 15 and 49 years were tested for diabetes and hypertension as part of the survey. A Bayesian geo-additive model was used to determine the risk factors of diabetes and hypertension. Results The prevalence rates of diabetes and hypertension in Northeast India were, respectively, 6.38% and 16.21%. The prevalence was higher among males, urban residents, and those who were widowed/divorced/separated. The functional relationship between household wealth index and diabetes and hypertension was found to be an inverted U-shape. As the household wealth status increased, its effect on diabetes also increased. However, interestingly, the inverse was observed in the case of hypertension, that is, as the household wealth status increased, its effect on hypertension decreased. The unstructured spatial variation in diabetes was mainly due to the unobserved risk factors present within a district that were not related to the nearby districts, while for hypertension, the structured spatial variation was due to the unobserved factors that were related to the nearby districts. Conclusion Diabetes and hypertension control measures should consider both local and non-local factors that contribute to the spatial heterogeneity. More importance should be given to efforts aimed at evaluating district-specific factors in the prevalence of diabetes within a region.

Risk factors, causative organisms and sensitivity patterns of infective keratitis in a tertiary care hospital in Rawalpindi

Objective: To determine the risk factors, causative organisms, sensitivity patterns and treatment outcomes of infective corneal ulcers. Methods: The is a prospective cohort study carried out from January 2018 to December 2019 at the Department of Ophthalmology, Fauji Foundation Hospital (FFH) Rawalpindi. A total of 65 eyes of 65 patients of corneal ulcer meeting the inclusion criteria were evaluated and corneal scrapes were sent for microbiological assessment. Variables studied were age, gender, risk factors, onset and duration of symptoms, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), treatment and complications. Results: Out of 65 eyes of 65 patients, 40 (61.5%) were females and 25 (38.4%) were males. Most common local risk factor was ocular surgery (29.2%) followed by ocular trauma (23.1%). Diabetes was present in 44.6% of the cases. Culture results after corneal scrapings were positive for 39 (60%) of the total samples, while 26 (40%) had no growth. Bacterial growth was present in 51.3% of eyes, fungal in 28.2% while 20.5% of the eyes were infected with polymicrobial organisms. Most common pathogens were Pseudomonas (25.6%) that were most sensitive to ciprofloxacin. By the end of the follow-up period 40 cases (61.5%) showed improvement. Conclusion: This study concluded that isolated Pseudomonas was the most common pathogen. Prompt diagnosis with culture sensitivity tests are very much needed in developing countries to avoid blindness due to keratitis. Keywords: Infective keratitis, risk factors, corneal ulcer, culture sensitivity.

Empathic Psychology: A Code of Risk Prevention and Control for Behavior Guidance in the Multicultural Context

This study aims to uncover the relationship among multicultural differences, empathy, and the behaviors of risk prevention and control in the context of crisis events by using a sample of 300 individuals in 10 different multicultural countries. A theoretical logic model was applied to empirical analysis, and the results indicated that cultural differences positively influenced the behavior of empathy communication and risk prevention and control. Further analyses revealed that real-time monitoring of changes in empathy could provide better options of measures for local risk prevention and control when the same crisis event occurred in a multicultural context. With user-generated content (UGC) emerging in the web 2.0 era, this paper proposed a more profound empathy code regarding the periodicity of risk prevention and control. This paper expects to contribute to the circumvention of cognitive errors caused by cultural differences, and to further provide effective conduction for individuals' risk prevention and control behaviors.

1324. Identification of Local Risk Factors for P. aeruginosa in Community-acquired Pneumonia in a Veteran Population

Background The 2019 ATS/IDSA community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) guidelines recommend empiric P. aeruginosa (PSA) coverage if locally validated risk factors are present. They further recommend obtaining local data on CAP pathogens to quantify risk factors and help guide clinical decision-making. To comply with the current guideline recommendations and to determine which patients may benefit from empiric anti-pseudomonal therapy, we aimed to characterize our institution’s local risk factors for CAP caused by PSA. Methods This is a retrospective single-center matched cohort study of patients admitted to our institution with a CAP diagnosis and a positive respiratory culture who received antibiotic treatment in the past 19 years. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess the relationship between PSA and the following risk factors: severe or very severe COPD (FEV1 < 50% predicted), requiring invasive mechanical ventilation or vasopressor support in the first 24 hours of admission, history of PSA infection/colonization in the previous year, tracheostomy, bronchiectasis, long-term care facility residence and admission with receipt of IV antibiotics in the previous 90 days. Results A total of 343 patients were screened and 213 were included. Patients were mostly male (99%) with a median (IQR) age of 70 (63-76) years. Long-term care facility residence was removed from the model to prevent it from being over fit as it was related tracheostomy. In the multivariate analysis the only independently associated risk factor for PSA CAP was evidence during the prior year of PSA infection or colonization (OR 3.66; 95% CI 1.26 – 10.56; p = 0.018). Other risk factors that did not reach statistical significance but may be clinically significant included severe or very severe COPD (OR 2.52; 95% CI 2.52 – 6.38; p = 0.055) and tracheostomy (OR 5.28; 95% CI 0.74 – 38.85; p = 0.098). Conclusion The results of this study provide valuable data to help guide empiric CAP treatment at our institution. Based on these results, patients with PSA infection or colonization in the past year are appropriate to provide empiric anti-pseudomonal therapy for CAP. Further evaluation of severe or very severe COPD and tracheostomy would be beneficial to better characterize their role in PSA CAP. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

1298. Validation of Local Pseudomonas aeruginosa Risk Factors in Patients with Community-Onset Bacterial Pneumonia

Background Clinical guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) encourage validation of local risk factors for multidrug-resistant organisms. This study aimed to validate previously derived, local risk factors for Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with community-onset bacterial pneumonia at Prisma Health-Midlands’ hospitals. Methods In this retrospective, observational cohort study, adult patients hospitalized with pneumonia MS-DRG codes from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 were randomly screened. Enrolled subjects were admitted to 1 of 3 Prisma Health-Midlands’ hospitals with: diagnosis of pneumonia; receipt of inpatient antibiotics within 48 hours of symptom onset; receipt of over 48 hours of antibiotic therapy; and a causative bacterial pathogen identified via respiratory or blood culture, urinary antigen, or respiratory multiplex PCR panel. Performance of the locally derived score was compared to the Drug Resistance in Pneumonia (DRIP) Score, IDSA 2019 CAP guideline risk factors, and healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) risk factors. Endpoints included sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, overall accuracy, and over- and undertreatment rates. Overall accuracy was defined as a case in which the gram-negative antibiotic coverage recommended by the scoring schema would have been appropriate for the identified organism, i.e. neither overtreatment (overly broad-spectrum) nor undertreatment (inadequate spectrum). Results Of 713 patients screened, 36 patients met criteria and were enrolled. The most common bacterial pathogens identified were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n = 10, 27.8%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 10, 27.8%). Performance characteristics for each scoring schema are summarized in Table 1. Table 1. Performance characteristics of risk scores predicting for Pseudomonas aeruginosa community-onset bacterial pneumonia. MDRO=multidrug-resistant organism; DRIP=Drug Resistance in Pneumonia Score; IDSA=Infectious Diseases Society of America 2019 Community-Acquired Pneumonia Guideline risk factors ; HCAP=healthcare-associated pneumonia risk factors Conclusion Compared to DRIP or IDSA 2019 CAP risk scores, the local risk score performed well at ruling out resistant gram-negatives given its higher specificity and lower overtreatment rate; yet, it did not perform as well at ruling in resistant gram-negatives given a lower sensitivity and undertreatment rate. All scores performed better than HCAP risk factors. Data from this study will be utilized to further refine the local risk score algorithm. Disclosures P. Brandon Bookstaver, Pharm D, ALK Abello, Inc. (Grant/Research Support, Advisor or Review Panel member)Biomerieux (Speaker’s Bureau)Kedrion Biopharma (Grant/Research Support, Advisor or Review Panel member) Hana Winders, PharmD, BCIDP, biomerieux (Grant/Research Support) Julie Ann Justo, PharmD, MS, BCPS-AQ ID, bioMerieux (Speaker’s Bureau)Merck & Co. (Advisor or Review Panel member)Therapeutic Research Center (Speaker’s Bureau)Vaxart (Shareholder)

The tenacity of trust in petrochemical communities: Reckoning with risk on the Fawley Waterside (1997–2019)

Around the world, people living close to polluting industries have different perceptions of the risks of toxic exposure, ranging from anger to acceptance to denial. We draw attention to a case with relatively high levels of social trust, but also relatively high levels of risk perception: the communities living adjacent to the Fawley (UK) oil refinery and petrochemical complex, a site that has been operated by Esso since the early 1950s. Our findings are based on a novel comparative analysis of two qualitative studies of local risk perceptions in Fawley conducted more than two decades apart in 1997 and 2019, incorporating focus group and individual interviews with residents, alongside documentary analysis and stakeholder interviews. Perceptions of risk and trust in the local polluting industry have fluctuated over the years, with unease never far from the surface as industrial employment has slowly contracted. Yet overall, the picture in 2019 was not too dissimilar from that in 1997: while community–industry relations were strained amidst periodic risk incidents and a sense of decline, a cautious sense of trust in the polluting enterprise had endured, based on a delicate balance of heritage, risk, and recognition. We draw attention to the residents’ careful reckoning with risks over time and the tenacity of social trust as an act of negotiation that took risk into account but also included other important factors such as recognition and reciprocity. Local risk perceptions in Fawley are closely bound up with the residents’ shared industrial heritage and enduring perceptions of Esso as a ‘good neighbour’. Our longitudinal analysis allowed us to reflect on changes over time in Fawley, providing greater temporal depth to the risk perception literature.

Aeciospore ejection in the rust pathogen Puccinia graminis is driven by moisture ingress

Fungi have evolved an array of spore discharge and dispersal processes. Here, we developed a theoretical model that explains the ejection mechanics of aeciospore liberation in the stem rust pathogen Puccinia graminis. Aeciospores are released from cluster cups formed on its Berberis host, spreading early-season inoculum into neighboring small-grain crops. Our model illustrates that during dew or rainfall, changes in aeciospore turgidity exerts substantial force on neighboring aeciospores in cluster cups whilst gaps between spores become perfused with water. This perfusion coats aeciospores with a lubrication film that facilitates expulsion, with single aeciospores reaching speeds of 0.053 to 0.754 m·s−1. We also used aeciospore source strength estimates to simulate the aeciospore dispersal gradient and incorporated this into a publicly available web interface. This aids farmers and legislators to assess current local risk of dispersal and facilitates development of sophisticated epidemiological models to potentially curtail stem rust epidemics originating on Berberis.

Mathematical Problems of Managing the Risks of Complex Systems under Targeted Attacks with Known Structures

This paper deals with the problem of managing the risks of complex systems under targeted attacks. It is usually solved by using Defender–Attacker models or similar ones. However, such models do not consider the influence of the defending system structure on the expected attack outcome. Our goal was to study how the structure of an abstract system affects its integral risk. To achieve this, we considered a situation where the Defender knows the structure of the expected attack and can arrange the elements to achieve a minimum of integral risk. In this paper, we consider a particular case of a simple chain attack structure. We generalized the concept of a local risk function to account for structural effects and found an ordering criterion that ensures the optimal placement of the defending system’s elements inside a given simple chain structure. The obtained result is the first step to formulate the principles of optimally placing system elements within an arbitrarily complex network. Knowledge of these principles, in turn, will allow solving the problems of optimal allocation of resources to minimize the risks of a complex system, considering its structure.

Epidemiological Distribution and Potential Risk Factors of Orientia tsutsugamushi Infection in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India

Background: Scrub typhus (ST) is a rickettsial infection caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, which presents with flu like symptoms. This disease has been reported from all over India but with slight variations in its pattern. For decreasing the prevalence, preventing new incidences, and predicting the course of the ST, therefore, it is crucial to gain knowledge and perception of local risk components associated with the disease. The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological distribution and potential risk factors of O. tsutsugamushi Infection in Eastern Uttar Pradesh (EUP), India. Methods: The serums of 211 samples were collected from the suspected cases along with the detailed information about the participants such as age, location, and place recorded in case history form (CRF). IgM estimation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) assay. Results: A total of 58 samples (27.4%) out of 211 ones were found to be positive for IgM antibodies against O. tsutsugamushi bacterium. Furthermore, the results were correlated with epidemiological data such as gender, rural or urban background, pets, and occupation. The results showed that 76.7% of the study participants were from rural areas or had bushes around their houses, 88.3% of them had pets/cattle or frequent encounter with rodents at their houses, and 30.3% of them had no toilet facilities at home. Conclusions: It was concluded that the proximity to pets/cattle, having rodents in closer vicinity, residing in places surrounded by vegetation/farm/bushy areas, and following occupations involving field work increased the chances of getting bitten by mites/chiggers. Overall, Orientia tsutsugamushi prevalence increased in EUP, with respect to clinical features, disease presentation, and laboratory diagnosis can help our community to reduce the mortality caused by this infectious disease.