Inland waterway network mapping of AIS data for freight transportation planning

Travel demand models (TDMs) with freight forecasts estimate performance metrics for competing infrastructure investments and potential policy changes. Unfortunately, freight TDMs fail to represent non-truck modes with levels of detail adequate for multi-modal infrastructure and policy evaluation. Recent expansions in the availability of maritime movement data, i.e. Automatic Identification System (AIS), make it possible to expand and improve representation of maritime modes within freight TDMs. AIS may be used to track vessel locations as timestamped latitude–longitude points. For estimation, calibration and validation of freight TDMs, this work identifies vessel trips by applying network mapping (map-matching) heuristics to AIS data. The automated methods are evaluated on a 747-mile inland waterway network, with AIS data representing 88% of vessel activity. Inspection of 3820 AIS trajectories was used to train the heuristic parameters including stop time, duration and location. Validation shows 84⋅0% accuracy in detecting stops at ports and 83⋅5% accuracy in identifying trips crossing locks. The resulting map-matched vessel trips may be applied to generate origin–destination matrices, calculate time impedances, etc. The proposed methods are transferable to waterways or maritime port systems, as AIS continues to grow.

A Comparative Empirical Study of Discrete Choice Models in Retail Operations

Choice-based demand estimation is a fundamental task in retail operations and revenue management, providing necessary input data for inventory control, assortment, and price-optimization models. The task is particularly difficult in operational contexts where product availability varies over time and customers may substitute into the available options. In addition to the classical multinomial logit (MNL) model and extensions (e.g., nested logit, mixed logit, and latent-class MNL), new demand models have been proposed (e.g., the Markov chain model), and others have been recently revisited (e.g., the rank list-based and exponomial models). At the same time, new computational approaches were developed to ease the estimation function (e.g., column-generation and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms). In this paper, we conduct a systematic, empirical study of different choice-based demand models and estimation algorithms, including both maximum-likelihood and least-squares criteria. Through an exhaustive set of numerical experiments on synthetic, semisynthetic, and real data, we provide comparative statistics of the predictive power and derived revenue performance of an ample collection of choice models and characterize operational environments suitable for different model/estimation implementations. We also provide a survey of all the discrete choice models evaluated and share all our estimation codes and data sets as part of the online appendix. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

WHAT DOES DYNAMICS OF TOURISM MARKETING SHOW IN 12 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

This study is motivated by the idea to what extent tourism marketing investment contributes to tourism demand expansion. It searches for better estimation methods that can deal with the inter-temporal and cross-section correlation of the disturbances. The effect of omitting the tourism marketing variable, as evidenced by the drastic change in long and short-run elasticity values for all tourism demand models, has emerged clearly. There is a need for the national tourism institutions to have a clear, consistent, and sustained investment policy in tourism marketing activities with respect to enhanced effectiveness in allocating financial resources.Keywords: Tourism Marketing, 12 Developing Countries, Dynamic Panel, Elasticity Values, Omission of Tourism Marketing Variable.JEL: Z33, C23,O50

Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review

In this article, a systematic literature review of 419 articles on energy demand modeling, published between 2015 and 2020, is presented. This provides researchers with an exhaustive overview of the examined literature and classification of techniques for energy demand modeling. Unlike in existing literature reviews, in this comprehensive study all of the following aspects of energy demand models are analyzed: techniques, prediction accuracy, inputs, energy carrier, sector, temporal horizon, and spatial granularity. Readers benefit from easy access to a broad literature base and find decision support when choosing suitable data-model combinations for their projects. Results have been compiled in comprehensive figures and tables, providing a structured summary of the literature, and containing direct references to the analyzed articles. Drawbacks of techniques are discussed as well as countermeasures. The results show that among the articles, machine learning (ML) techniques are used the most, are mainly applied to short-term electricity forecasting on a regional level and rely on historic load as their main data source. Engineering-based models are less dependent on historic load data and cover appliance consumption on long temporal horizons. Metaheuristic and uncertainty techniques are often used in hybrid models. Statistical techniques are frequently used for energy demand modeling as well and often serve as benchmarks for other techniques. Among the articles, the accuracy measured by mean average percentage error (MAPE) proved to be on similar levels for all techniques. This review eases the reader into the subject matter by presenting the emphases that have been made in the current literature, suggesting future research directions, and providing the basis for quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding applicability and dominance of specific methods for sub-categories of demand modeling.