Vessel Navigation Behavior Analysis and Multiple-Trajectory Prediction Model Based on AIS Data

With the increasing application and utility of automatic identification systems (AISs), large volumes of AIS data are collected to record vessel navigation. In recent years, the prediction of vessel trajectories has become one of the hottest research issues. In contrast to existing studies, most researchers have focused on the single-trajectory prediction of vessels. This article proposes a multiple-trajectory prediction model and makes two main contributions. First, we propose a novel method of trajectory feature representation that uses a hierarchical clustering algorithm to analyze and extract the vessel navigation behavior for multiple trajectories. Compared with the classic methods, e.g., Douglas–Peucker (DP) and least-squares cubic spline curve approximation (LCSCA) algorithms, the mean loss of trajectory features extracted by our method is approximately 0.005, and it is reduced by 50% and 30% compared to the DP and LCSCA algorithms, respectively. Second, we design an integrated model for simultaneous prediction of multiple trajectories using the proposed features and employ the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based neural network and recurrent neural network (RNN) to pursue this time series task. Furthermore, the comparative experiments prove that the mean value and standard deviation of root mean squared error (RMSE) using the LSTM are 4% and 14% lower than those using the RNN, respectively.

Estimating the Aerodynamic Coefficients of a Savonius Rotor Blade Profile Developed Through the Simplex Search Method

The Savonius rotor, a type of vertical-axis wind turbine, seems to be promising for small-scale power generation. Most of the studies conducted so far have focused on the evaluation of torque and power coefficients (CT, CP) of the rotor. This paper aims at analyzing the aerodynamic drag and lift coefficients (CD, CL) of a Savonius rotor blade profile that is generated by the simplex search method to maximize its CP. The optimization is carried out by coupling the numerical simulations with the simplex search method. The optimized blade profile thus obtained is symmetric about its axis, where one half is created through a natural cubic spline curve using three points. Two-dimensional (2D) unsteady numerical simulations have been conducted by adopting ANSYS FLUENT solver to examine the CD and CL of the optimized blade profile at an inlet air velocity of 7.30 m/s. The shear stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is used to solve the transient Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The aerodynamic analysis is performed over a range of tip speed ratios (TSRs). The total pressure, velocity magnitudes, and the turbulent intensity contours of the optimized blade profile are generated and studied at different angles of rotation. The CD and CL of the blade profile are investigated for a complete rotation with an increment of 1°. At TSR = 0.8, the optimized profile shows a CDmax of 1.91 at an angle of rotation of 54°, while CDmin is found to be 0.45 at an angle 147°.

Daytime napping is associated with retinal microcirculation: a large population-based study in China

Study Objectives To investigate the association between daytime napping and retinal microcirculation. Methods This is a cross-sectional study from a prospective population-based cohort. 2,662 participants were recruited after quota sampling. Information on napping was collected through face-to-face interviews. Retinal vascular calibers (RVCs), including central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE), central retinal venular equivalent (CRVE), and arterio-to-venous ratio (AVR), were obtained from fundus photography. Multivariate regression and restricted cubic spline curve were performed to determine the association between RVCs and daytime napping duration. Results 56.4% participants reported daytime napping regularly. Compared to no nap, daytime nap was related to higher CRAE, with nap duration of 0.5–1 h showing the most significant association. 0.5–1 h daytime nappers displayed an average of 4.18 µm (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45–5.91, p < 0.001) wider CRAE than non-nappers after adjustment. No significant association was found between CRVE and daytime napping. Moreover, individuals with 0.5–1 h daytime napping had a lower risk for AVR reduction (odds ratio [OR] 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56–0.86, p = 0.001) than non-nappers. Similar association persisted in non-hypertensive population. Restricted cubic spline indicated a J-shaped relationship between AVR reduction and nap duration. Conclusion Retinal microcirculation was positively associated with self-reported 0.5–1 h daytime napping. Better indicators of retinal microcirculation were probably related to nap duration in a J-shaped manner. Also, the possibly beneficial role of 0.5–1 h daytime napping on retinal microcirculation might be independent of clinically diagnosed vascular diseases.

Effect of physical activity on mortality and hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection in patients with cardiovascular disease

Background Despite the well-validated benefit of physical activity on various health outcomes, little is known about its effect on lower respiratory tract infection. We explored the dose-response associations between physical activity and lower respiratory tract infection outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease. Methods Using the Korean National Health Insurance data, we identified more than 1 million individuals with cardiovascular diseases who had data on self-reported physical activity (baseline 2009–2012). Participants were followed up until 2018–2019 regarding the risk of death or hospitalization due to lower respiratory tract infection according to their physical activity level. Results Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for lower respiratory tract infection mortality were 1.00 (reference), 0.70 (0.67–0.74), 0.63 (0.59–0.66), 0.48 (0.43–0.53), and 0.51 (0.45–0.56) for those engaging in physical activity of 0, <500, 500–999, 1000–1499, and ≥1500 MET min/week, respectively. This was similarly applied to hospitalization due to lower respiratory tract infection. Generally, the association was stronger in the elderly population than in the younger population. Restricted cubic spline curve showed a non-linear association, that is, gradual risk reduction with a steeper slope between 0 and 500 MET min/week, reaching a plateau for 1500–1800 MET/min, and the curve flattened out thereafter. Conclusions In patients with cardiovascular disease, engaging in even low level of physical activity was associated decreased risk for lower respiratory tract infection outcomes and incremental risk reduction was shown with an increasing physical activity. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Optimal Intersection Curves for Surfaces

In this article, an algorithm has been established to approximate parametric-parametric, explicit-implicit, and explicit-explicit surface intersection. Foremost, it extracts the characteristic points (boundary and turning points) from the sequence of intersection points and fits an optimal cubic spline curve to these points. Moreover, this paper utilizes genetic algorithm (GA) for optimization of shape parameters in the portrayal of cubic spline so that the error is minimal. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated with different types of surfaces to analyze its robustness and proficiency. In the end, all illustrations show the effectiveness of the algorithm which makes it more influential to resolve all complexities arises during intersection with a minimal error.

Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions

When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific prediction technique, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction ensemble predictions of the warm core magnitudes of pre-tropical cyclone circulations are utilized to define the Time-to-Formation (35 knots) and to estimate the Likely Storm Category. If that category is a Typhoon, the bifurcation version of our technique is modified to better predict the peak intensity by selecting only Cluster 1 analog storms with the largest peak intensities that are most likely to have under-gone rapid intensification. A second modification to improve the peak intensity magnitude and timing was to fit a cubic spline curve through the weighted-mean peak intensities of the Cluster 1 analogs. The performance of this modified technique has been evaluated for a sequence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2019 in terms of: (i) Detection time in advance of formation; (ii) Accuracy of Time-to-Formation; (iii) Intensification stage prediction; and (iv) Peak intensity magnitude/timing. This modified technique would provide earlier guidance as to the threat of a Typhoon along the 15-day ensemble storm track forecast, which would be a benefit for risk management officials.

Long-Term Visit-to-Visit Mean Arterial Pressure Variability and the Risk of Heart Failure and All-Cause Mortality

Background: Systolic or diastolic blood pressure (BP) variability is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We assessed whether BP variability measured by mean arterial pressure (MAP) was associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF) and death in individuals with or without hypertension.Methods: We evaluated 9,305 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with or without hypertension and calculated BP variability based on MAP values from visit 1 to 4 [expressed as standard deviation (SD), average real variability (ARV), coefficient of variation (CV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM)]. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression model and restricted cubic spline curve were used to evaluate the associations of MAP variability with all-cause mortality and HF.Results: During a median follow-up of 16.8 years, 1,511 had an HF event and 2,903 died. Individuals in the highest quartile of VIM were both associated with a 21% higher risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09–1.35] and HF (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04–1.39) compared with the lowest quartile of VIM. Cubic spline curves reveal that the risk of deaths and HF increased with MAP variability when it reached a higher level. Results were similar in individuals with normotension (all-cause mortality: HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09–1.55; HF, HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.12–1.98).Conclusions: In individuals with or without hypertension, greater visit-to-visit MAP variability was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and HF, indicating that the BP variability assessed by MAP might be a potential risk factor for HF and death.

Obstructive spirometry pattern and the risk of chronic kidney disease: analysis from the community-based prospective Ansan-Ansung cohort in Korea

ObjectiveThere have been limited studies on the relationship between obstructive spirometry pattern and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated the association between obstructive spirometry pattern and incident CKD development in a large-scale prospective cohort study.MethodsWe reviewed the data of 7960 non-CKD adults aged 40–69 years who participated in the Ansung-Ansan cohort, a prospective community-based cohort study. Prebronchodilation results for the ratio of forced expiratory volume per 1 s (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) were used as the primary exposure. The primary outcome was incident CKD, defined as the first event of an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.ResultsOver a mean follow-up period of 11.7 years, incident CKD developed in 511 subjects (6.4%). An increase of 0.1 in FEV1/FVC was associated with a decreased risk of incident CKD (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84, p<0.001). Compared with the fourth quartile, the HR (95 % CI) of the first quartile of FEV1/FVC ratio was 1.81 (1.39 to 2.36, p<0.001). In the restricted cubic spline curve, the renal hazard associated with a decreased FEV1/FVC ratio was evident at FEV1/FVC values <0.80, showing a U-shaped relationship. In subgroup analysis, the renal hazard associated with a decreased FEV1/FVC ratio was particularly evident in people without metabolic syndrome (p for interaction=0.018).ConclusionDecreased FEV1/FVC ratio was independently associated with an increased risk of incident CKD development, particularly in people without metabolic syndrome. Future studies need to be conducted to confirm these results.

Cobalt Exposure in Relation to Cardiovascular Disease in the United States General Population

Cobalt exposure has adverse health effects on the cardiovascular system in occupational and laboratory studies, but these effects have not been assessed in the general population. We aimed to determine whether serum cobalt levels had relationship with the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2015–2016), we performed the cross-sectional study. We analyzed the baseline chrematistics of 3,389 participants (1623 men and 1766 women). Generalized linear models and restricted cubic spline plots curve were undertaken to elucidate the relationship. Stratified subgroup analysis was tested to exclude interaction between different variates and cobalt. Our results showed that the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD prevalence across the quartiles of cobalt were 0.94 (0.68, 1.30), 1.58 (1.17, 2.13), and 1.84 (1.37, 2.48) compared with lowest quartile. The restricted cubic spline curve also suggested nonlinear and positive association between cobalt and CVD (P for nonlinearity = 0.005). In summary, our cross-sectional results verify that higher cobalt levels are associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease.