Health benefits of decreases in on-road transportation emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017

Decades of air pollution regulation have yielded enormous benefits in the United States, but vehicle emissions remain a climate and public health issue. Studies have quantified the vehicle-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortality but lack the combination of proper counterfactual scenarios, latest epidemiological evidence, and detailed spatial resolution; all needed to assess the benefits of recent emission reductions. We use this combination to assess PM2.5-attributable health benefits and also assess the climate benefits of on-road emission reductions between 2008 and 2017. We estimate total benefits of $270 (190 to 480) billion in 2017. Vehicle-related PM2.5-attributable deaths decreased from 27,700 in 2008 to 19,800 in 2017; however, had per-mile emission factors remained at 2008 levels, 48,200 deaths would have occurred in 2017. The 74% increase from 27,700 to 48,200 PM2.5-attributable deaths with the same emission factors is due to lower baseline PM2.5 concentrations (+26%), more vehicle miles and fleet composition changes (+22%), higher baseline mortality (+13%), and interactions among these (+12%). Climate benefits were small (3 to 19% of the total). The percent reductions in emissions and PM2.5-attributable deaths were similar despite an opportunity to achieve disproportionately large health benefits by reducing high-impact emissions of passenger light-duty vehicles in urban areas. Increasingly large vehicles and an aging population, increasing mortality, suggest large health benefits in urban areas require more stringent policies. Local policies can be effective because high-impact primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions disperse little outside metropolitan areas. Complementary national-level policies for NOx are merited because of its substantial impacts—with little spatial variability—and dispersion across states and metropolitan areas.

Conservation cobenefits from air pollution regulation: Evidence from birds

Massive wildlife losses over the past 50 y have brought new urgency to identifying both the drivers of population decline and potential solutions. We provide large-scale evidence that air pollution, specifically ozone, is associated with declines in bird abundance in the United States. We show that an air pollution regulation limiting ozone precursors emissions has delivered substantial benefits to bird conservation. Our estimates imply that air quality improvements over the past 4 decades have stemmed the decline in bird populations, averting the loss of 1.5 billion birds, ∼20% of current totals. Our results highlight that in addition to protecting human health, air pollution regulations have previously unrecognized and unquantified conservation cobenefits.

Combining Cluster Analysis of Air Pollution and Meteorological Data with Receptor Model Results for Ambient PM2.5 and PM10

Air pollution regulation requires knowing major sources on any given zone, setting specific controls, and assessing how health risks evolve in response to those controls. Receptor models (RM) can identify major sources: transport, industry, residential, etc. However, RM results are typically available for short term periods, and there is a paucity of RM results for developing countries. We propose to combine a cluster analysis (CA) of air pollution and meteorological measurements with a short-term RM analysis to estimate a long-term, hourly source apportionment of ambient PM2.5 and PM10. We have developed a proof of the concept for this proposed methodology in three case studies: a large metropolitan zone, a city with dominant residential wood burning (RWB) emissions, and a city in the middle of a desert region. We have found it feasible to identify the major sources in the CA results and obtain hourly time series of their contributions, effectively extending short-term RM results to the whole ambient monitoring period. This methodology adds value to existing ambient data. The hourly time series results would allow researchers to apportion health benefits associated with specific air pollution regulations, estimate source-specific trends, improve emission inventories, and conduct environmental justice studies, among several potential applications.

Conservation co-benefits from air pollution regulation: Evidence from birds

Massive wildlife losses over the past 50 years have brought new urgency to identifying both the drivers of population decline and potential solutions. We provide the first large-scale evidence that air pollution, specifically ozone, is associated with declines in bird abundance in the United States. We show that an air pollution regulation limiting ozone precursors emissions has delivered substantial benefits to bird conservation. Our results imply that air quality improvements over the past four decades have stemmed the decline in bird populations, averting the loss of 1.5 billion birds, approximately 20 percent of current totals. Our results highlight that in addition to protecting human health, air pollution regulations have previously unrecognized and unquantified conservation co-benefits.

Impact of Air Pollution Regulation and Technological Investment on Sustainable Development of Green Economy in Eastern China: Empirical Analysis with Panel Data Approach

In eastern China, where air pollution is severe and government regulations are being tightened, green economic development has become the government’s goal. This paper makes an improvement in the measurement of the Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) index, and an intensity measure method reciprocal of the ratio of air pollutant emissions to the GDP is adopted to estimate the level of air pollution regulation. Applying an air pollution monitoring data sample of 87 cities in eastern China, empirically tests the relationship between air pollution regulation, technological investment, and green economic growth. The positive influence of air pollution regulation on GTFP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is higher than that in the Yangtze River Delta region. Therefore, improving the coordinated monitoring mechanism of environment and economic development can achieve co-benefits. Technological investment can promote the improvement of GTFP, but it could have a negative impact on green technology progress in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The output efficiency of technological investment should be improved. Technological investment has a positive influence on green technology efficiency and green technology progress in the Yangtze River Delta. The robustness test suggests that the influence direction and significance of the core variables were unchanged, which supports the research conclusion.