REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection

Background: It has been nearly a year since the first vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 were delivered in England. The third wave of COVID-19 in England began in May 2021 as the Delta variant began to outcompete and largely replace other strains. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) series of community surveys for SARS-CoV-2 infection has provided insights into transmission dynamics since May 2020. Round 15 of the REACT-1 study was carried out from 19 October to 5 November 2021. Methods: We estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection and used multiple logistic regression to analyse associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and demographic and other risk factors, based on RT-PCR results from self-administered throat and nose swabs in over 100,000 participants. We estimated (single-dose) vaccine effectiveness among children aged 12 to 17 years, and among adults compared swab-positivity in people who had received a third (booster) dose with those who had received two vaccine doses. We used splines to analyse time trends in swab-positivity. Results: During mid-October to early-November 2021, weighted prevalence was 1.57% (1.48%, 1.66%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). Weighted prevalence increased between rounds 14 and 15 across most age groups (including older ages, 65 years and over) and regions, with average reproduction number across rounds of R=1.09 (1.08, 1.11). During round 15, there was a fall in prevalence from a maximum around 20-21 October, with an R of 0.76 (0.70, 0.83), reflecting falls in prevalence at ages 17 years and below and 18 to 54 years. School-aged children had the highest weighted prevalence of infection: 4.95% (4.39%, 5.58%) in those aged 5 to 12 years and 5.21% (4.61%, 5.87%) in those aged 13 to 17 years. In multiple logistic regression, age, sex, key worker status and presence of one or more children in the home were associated with swab positivity. There was evidence of heterogeneity between rounds in swab positivity rates among vaccinated individuals at ages 18 to 64 years, and differences in key demographic and other variables between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults at these ages. Vaccine effectiveness against infection in children was estimated to be 56.2% (41.3%, 67.4%) in rounds 13, 14 and 15 combined, adjusted for demographic factors, with a similar estimate obtained for round 15 only. Among adults we found that those who received a third dose of vaccine were less likely to test positive compared to those who received only two vaccine doses, with adjusted odds ratio (OR) =0.38 (0.26, 0.55). Discussion: Swab-positivity was very high at the start of round 15, reaching a maximum around 20 to 21 October 2021, and then falling through late October with an uncertain trend in the last few days of data collection. The observational nature of survey data and the relatively small proportion of unvaccinated adults call into question the comparability of vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at this relatively late stage in the vaccination programme. However, third vaccine doses for eligible adults and the vaccination of children aged 12 years and over are associated with lower infection risk and, thus, remain a high priority (with possible extension to children aged 5-12 years). These should help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the winter period when healthcare demands typically rise.

Prevalence of hypertension, and related factors among adults in Wolaita, southern Ethiopia: A community-based cross-sectional study

Introduction Hypertension is a global public health challenge. There is a lack of evidence on the prevalence of hypertension, prehypertension, and related factors among adult populations of Wolaita, southern Ethiopia. Aim To assess the prevalence of hypertension, prehypertension, and related factors among adult populations of Wolaita, southern Ethiopia. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 2483 adult residents, selected using a two-stage random sampling technique. The quantitative data collected from structured questionnaires; anthropometric and biochemical measurements were entered into EpiData version 3.1 using double-entry systems. We determined the weighted prevalence of hypertension and pre-hypertension for the two-stage survey. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with hypertension and carried out after declaring the data set as survey data to account for the effect of clustering. An adjusted coefficient with 95% CI was used to ascertain the significance of the association. Results The weighted prevalence of hypertension and prehypertension in the Wolaita area was 31.3% (27.7%-35.1%) and 46.4% (42.9%-50.0%) respectively. The weighted prevalence of hypertension of those who were not aware of their hypertension until the time of the survey was 29.8%% (26.5%-33.3%). Where the weighted prevalence of self-reported cases of hypertension was 2.2% (1.2%-3.8%). Obesity, sugar-sweetened food consumption, male sex, elevated total cholesterol, raised fasting blood sugar, and advancing age were positively associated with hypertension. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension among adults in Wolaita was high. A small proportion of the affected people are aware of their high blood pressure. This study reported a high prevalence of pre-hypertension; which indicates a high percentage of people at risk of hypertension. It is essential to develop periodic screening programs, and primary intervention strategies such as the prevention of obesity, and reduction of sugar-sweetened food consumption.

Loneliness Among US Adults During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings From the COVID-19 Coping Study

We aimed to estimate the prevalence of loneliness and identify the key sociodemographic, employment, living, and health-related risk factors for loneliness among middle-aged and older adults during the early COVID-19 pandemic in the US, when shelter-in-place and social distancing restrictions were in place for much of the country. Data were collected from online questionnaires in the COVID-19 Coping Study, a national study of 6,938 US adults aged 55-110 years, from April 2nd through May 31st, 2020. We estimated the population-weighted prevalence of loneliness (scores of ≥6/9 on the 3-item UCLA Loneliness Scale), overall and according to sociodemographic, employment, living, and health-related factors. We used population-weighted modified Poisson regression models to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between these factors and loneliness, adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, and education. Overall, 29.5% (95% CI: 27.9%, 31.3%) of US adults aged 55-110 were considered high in loneliness in April and May, 2020. In population-weighted, adjusted models, loneliness was most frequent among those with depression, those who were divorced or separated, those who lived alone, those diagnosed with multiple comorbid conditions, and individuals who were unemployed prior to the pandemic. In conclusion, we identified subpopulations of middle-aged and older US adults that were highly affected by loneliness during a period when COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders were in place across most of the country. These insights may inform the allocation of recourses to mitigate loneliness during times of restricted activity.

Hypertension-mediated organ damage and established cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension: the China Hypertension Survey, 2012–2015

Hypertension is a major health burden worldwide. However, there is limited data on the status of hypertension-mediated organ damage (HMOD) and established cardiovascular (CV) disease in Chinese hypertensive patients. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of HMOD and established CV disease in a nationally representative population in China. A stratified multistage random sampling method was used in the China Hypertension Survey and 21,243 participants aged 35 or older were eligible for analysis in this study. For each participant, the demographic information and a self-reported medical history were acquired. Blood pressure was measured with the electronic device 3 times on the right arm, supported at heart level, after the participant was sitting at rest for 5 min. Samples of blood and urine were tested. 2-D and Doppler echocardiography were used to assess the heart’s function and structures. Sampling weights were calculated based on the 2010 China population census data. Overall, the weighted prevalence of asymptomatic HMOD was 22.1%, 28.9%, 23.1%, 6.4%, and 6.2% for wide pulse pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria, chronic kidney disease, and abnormal ankle-brachial index, respectively. For the established CV disease, the weighted prevalence was 1.8%, 1.3%, 2.0%, and 1.1% for stroke, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation, respectively. The prevalence of asymptomatic HMOD and established CV disease was greater with higher blood pressure level (P < 0.05), rather than ankle-brachial index. Compared to those with uncontrolled hypertension, the prevalence of asymptomatic HMOD was lower in patients with controlled hypertension. In summary, the prevalence of HMOD in Chinese people aged 35 or older was very common, indicating a substantial future burden of both morbidity and mortality from hypertension in China. Clinical trial registration number: ChiCTR-ECS-14004641.

Prevalence and characteristics of ever regular use of non-combustible nicotine for 1 year or more: a population survey in England

Introduction Up-to-date monitoring of non-combustible nicotine products (e.g. e-cigarettes, nicotine replacement therapies (NRT), heated tobacco products (HTP); NNP) is important to assess their impact. To date, there is little evidence on the association between ever regular use (defined here as 1 year or more) of NNP and current smoking status. Aims/methods The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence, and sociodemographic, alcohol and smoking status correlates, of ever regular use of NNP in England in 2020. A cross-sectional survey of adults in England was conducted between February and June 2020. Results A total of 8486 adults were surveyed; 94.9% (8055) were complete cases. The weighted prevalence of ever regular NNP use was 5.4% (n = 436; 95% CI 5.0–6.0), of which 82% (n = 360; 95% CI 78.7–85.8) was single and 18% (n = 79; 95% CI 14.8–22) multiple product use. Amongst ever regular NNP users, the prevalence of ever regular NRT, e-cigarette and HTP use was 64.7% (95% CI 60.1–69), 43.4% (95% CI 38.8–48) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.4–4.5), respectively. In adjusted analysis, ever regular NNP use was associated with smoking status, being significantly higher among current (22.3%; adjusted OR (aOR) 34.9, 95% CI 24.0–50.8) and ex-smokers (12.7%, aOR 19.8, 95% CI 11.1–14.4) than among never-smokers (0.6%). More advantaged occupational grade (aOR, 1.27 95% CI 1.02–1.57) and at least hazardous alcohol use (aOR, 1.38 95% CI 1.06–1.78) were associated with greater prevalence of ever regular NNP use. Conclusions Ever regularly using NNP was highest among smokers and ex-smokers and rare among never-smokers. Among people who have ever regularly used NNP, NRT is the most popular.

REACT-1 round 15 interim report: High and rising prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end of September 2021 followed by a fall in late October 2021

Background: The third wave of COVID-19 in England coincided with the rapid spread of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 from the end of May 2021. Case incidence data from the national testing programme (Pillar 2) in England may be affected by changes in testing behaviour and other biases. Community surveys may provide important contextual information to inform policy and the public health response. Methods: We estimated patterns of community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England using RT-PCR swab-positivity, demographic and other risk factor data from round 15 (interim) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study (round 15a, carried out from 19 to 29 October 2021). We compared these findings with those from round 14 (9 to 27 September 2021). Results: During mid- to late-October 2021 (round 15a) weighted prevalence was 1.72% (1.61%, 1.84%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). The overall reproduction number (R) from round 14 to round 15a was 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) with increases in prevalence over this period (September to October) across age groups and regions except Yorkshire and The Humber. However, within round 15a (mid- to late-October) there was evidence of a fall in prevalence with R of 0.76 (0.65, 0.88). The highest weighted prevalence was observed among children aged 5 to 12 years at 5.85% (5.10%, 6.70%) and 13 to 17 years at 5.75% (5.02%, 6.57%). At regional level, there was an almost four-fold increase in weighted prevalence in South West from round 14 at 0.59% (0.43%,0.80%) to round 15a at 2.18% (1.84%, 2.58%), with highest smoothed prevalence at subregional level also found in South West in round 15a. Age, sex, key worker status, and presence of children in the home jointly contributed to the risk of swab-positivity. Among the 126 sequenced positive swabs obtained up until 23 October, all were Delta variant; 13 (10.3%) were identified as the AY.4.2 sub-lineage. Discussion: We observed the highest overall prevalence of swab-positivity seen in the REACT-1 study in England to date in round 15a (October 2021), with a two-fold rise in swab-positivity from round 14 (September 2021). Despite evidence of a fall in prevalence from mid- to late-October 2021, prevalence remains high, particularly in school-aged children, with evidence also of higher prevalence in households with one or more children. Thus, vaccination of children aged 12 and over remains a high priority (with possible extension to children aged 5-12) to help reduce within-household transmission and disruptions to education, as well as among adults, to lessen the risk of serious disease among those infected.

Disaster Preparedness Among Women With a Recent Live Birth in Hawaii – Results From the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), 2016

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine emergency preparedness behaviors among women with a recent live birth in Hawaii. Methods: Using the 2016 Hawaii Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, we estimated weighted prevalence of 8 preparedness behaviors. Results: Among 1010 respondents (weighted response rate, 56.3%), 79.3% reported at least 1 preparedness behavior, and 11.2% performed all 8 behaviors. The prevalence of women with a recent live birth in Hawaii reporting preparedness behaviors includes: 63.0% (95% CI: 58.7-67.1%) having enough supplies at home for at least 7 days, 41.3% (95% CI: 37.1-45.6%) having an evacuation plan for their child(ren), 38.7% (95% CI: 34.5-43.0%) having methods to keep in touch, 37.8% (95% CI: 33.7-42.1%) having an emergency meeting place, 36.6% (95% CI: 32.6-40.9%) having an evacuation plan to leave home, 34.9% (95% CI: 30.9-39.2%) having emergency supplies to take with them if they have to leave quickly, 31.8% (95% CI: 27.9-36.0%) having copies of important documents, and 31.6% (95% CI: 27.7-35.8%) having practiced what to do during a disaster. Conclusions: One in 10 women practiced all 8 behaviors, indicating more awareness efforts are needed among this population in Hawaii. The impact of preparedness interventions implemented in Hawaii can be tracked with this question over time.

Prevalence and associated factors of insufficient physical activity among elderly people in Bangladesh: a nationally representative cross-sectional study

ObjectivesInsufficient physical activity (IPA) is a crucial risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The elderly population has a higher likelihood of suffering from NCDs. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with IPA among the elderly people in Bangladesh.MethodsWe analysed data from the Bangladesh Food Security and Nutrition Surveillance round 2018–2019, collected from 82 rural, non-slum urban and slum clusters selected using multistage cluster sampling. IPA was defined as <150 min of moderate intensity or <75 min of vigorous intensity or equivalent in a typical week. The weighted prevalence of IPA was estimated by gender and across different variables. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios were calculated using Poisson regression with robust variance.ResultsThe weighted prevalence of IPA among elderly people was 38.4%, with a slightly higher prevalence in women (39.7% vs 37.3%). Factors associated with higher prevalence of IPA in both sexes were—higher age, living in non-slum urban areas, unemployed or homemaker, not currently married, sedentary behaviour and self-reported hypertension. Further, >10 years of education, inadequate fruits and vegetable consumption, self-reported asthma and higher waist circumference among men; and higher household income and self-reported diabetes among women were associated with a higher prevalence of IPA.ConclusionsIPA is highly prevalent among Bangladeshi elderly men and women. Sedentary behaviour, inadequate fruits and vegetable consumption and higher waist circumference were the modifiable factors of IPA. Evidence from this study can guide the development of appropriate interventions to promote healthy ageing in Bangladesh.

Prospective validation of host transcriptomic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis by real-time PCR

We tested performance of host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signatures for active case-finding. Among 20,207 HIV-uninfected and 963 HIV-infected adults screened; 2,923 and 861 were enrolled from five South African communities. Eight signatures were measured by microfluidic RT-qPCR and participants were microbiologically-investigated for pulmonary TB at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident disease through 15 months. Diagnostic AUCs for 61 HIV-uninfected (weighted-prevalence 1.1%) and 10 HIV-infected (prevalence 1.2%) prevalent TB cases for the 8 signatures were 0.63-0.79 and 0.65-0.88, respectively. Thereafter, 24 HIV-uninfected and 9 HIV-infected participants progressed to incident TB (1.1 and 1.0 per 100 person-years, respectively). Prognostic AUCs through 15-months follow-up were 0.49-0.66 and 0.54-0.81, respectively. Prognostic performance for incident TB occurring within 6-12 months in HIV-negative participants was higher for all signatures. None of the signatures met WHO Target Product Profile criteria for a triage test to diagnose asymptomatic TB; most signatures met the criteria for symptomatic TB. Prognostic accuracy of most signatures for incident TB within six months of testing met the criteria for an incipient TB test.

Current status and etiology of valvular heart disease in China: a population-based survey

Background The epidemiology of valvular heart disease (VHD) has changed markedly over the last 50 years worldwide, and the prevalence and features of VHD in China are unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the current status and etiology of VHD in China. Methods We used a cross-sectional national survey with stratified multistage random sampling from the general Chinese population to estimate the VHD burden. Data on demographic characteristics, medical history, physical examination, blood tests, and potential etiology were collected. Echocardiography was used to detect VHD. Results The national survey enrolled 34,994 people aged 35 years or older across China. Overall, 31,499 people were included in the final analysis, and 1309 participants were diagnosed with VHD. The weighted prevalence was 3.8%, with an estimated 25 million patients in China. The prevalence of VHD increased with age and was higher in participants with hypertension or chronic kidney disease than in their counterparts. Among participants with VHD, 55.1% were rheumatic and 21.3% were degenerative. The proportion of rheumatic decreased with age, and the proportion of degenerative rose with age. However, the prevalence of rheumatic disease was still higher in the elderly population than in the younger population. Logistic regression revealed that age and hypertension were correlated with VHD. Conclusions In China, rheumatic heart disease was still the major cause of the VHD, with a significant increase in degenerative heart disease. Age and hypertension are important and easily identifiable markers of VHD.