Inpatient COVID-19 mortality has reduced over time: Results from an observational cohort

Background The Covid-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom has seen two waves; the first starting in March 2020 and the second in late October 2020. It is not known whether outcomes for those admitted with severe Covid were different in the first and second waves. Methods The study population comprised all patients admitted to a 1,500-bed London Hospital Trust between March 2020 and March 2021, who tested positive for Covid-19 by PCR within 3-days of admissions. Primary outcome was death within 28-days of admission. Socio-demographics (age, sex, ethnicity), hypertension, diabetes, obesity, baseline physiological observations, CRP, neutrophil, chest x-ray abnormality, remdesivir and dexamethasone were incorporated as co-variates. Proportional subhazards models compared mortality risk between wave 1 and wave 2. Cox-proportional hazard model with propensity score adjustment were used to compare mortality in patients prescribed remdesivir and dexamethasone. Results There were 3,949 COVID-19 admissions, 3,195 hospital discharges and 733 deaths. There were notable differences in age, ethnicity, comorbidities, and admission disease severity between wave 1 and wave 2. Twenty-eight-day mortality was higher during wave 1 (26.1% versus 13.1%). Mortality risk adjusted for co-variates was significantly lower in wave 2 compared to wave 1 [adjSHR 0.49 (0.37, 0.65) p<0.001]. Analysis of treatment impact did not show statistically different effects of remdesivir [HR 0.84 (95%CI 0.65, 1.08), p = 0.17] or dexamethasone [HR 0.97 (95%CI 0.70, 1.35) p = 0.87]. Conclusion There has been substantial improvements in COVID-19 mortality in the second wave, even accounting for demographics, comorbidity, and disease severity. Neither dexamethasone nor remdesivir appeared to be key explanatory factors, although there may be unmeasured confounding present.

Influence of Long-term Non-Aspirin NSAID use on Risk of Frailty in Men ≥60 years: The Physicians’ Health Study

Background Inflammation is a central pathway leading to frailty but whether commonly used non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can prevent frailty is unknown. Methods Prospective cohort study of male physicians ≥60 who participated in the Physicians’ Health Study. Annual questionnaires collected data on NSAID use, lifestyle and morbidity. Average annual NSAID use was categorized as 0 days/year, 1-12 days/year, 13-60 days/year, and &gt;60 days/year. Frailty was assessed using a validated 33-item frailty index. Propensity score inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to address confounding by indication and logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) of prevalent frailty according to non-aspirin NSAID use. Results 12,101 male physicians were included (mean age 70±7 years, mean follow-up 11 years). Reported NSAID use was 0 days/year for 2,234, 1-12 days/year for 5,812, 13-60 days/year for 2,833, and &gt;60 days/year for 1,222 participants. 2,413 participants (20%) were frail. Higher self-reported NSAID use was associated with greater alcohol use, smoking, arthritis, hypertension, and heart disease, while less NSAID use was associated with coumadin use and prior bleeding. After propensity score adjustment, all characteristics were balanced. ORs (95% CIs) of prevalent frailty were 0.90 (0.80-1.02), 1.02 (0.89-1.17), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for average NSAID use of 1-12 days/year, 13-60 days/year, and &gt;60 days/year, compared to 0 days/year (p-trend&lt;0.001). Conclusions Long term use of NSAIDs at high frequency is associated with increased risk of frailty among older men. Additional study is needed to understand the role of anti-inflammatory medication in older adults and its implication for overall health.

Propensity score-adjusted analysis on stent-assisted coiling versus coiling alone for ruptured intracranial aneurysms

Stent-assisted coiling (SAC) for ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIAs) remains controversial due to an inherent risk of potential thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications. We compared SAC and coiling alone for the management of RIAs using propensity score-adjustment. Sixty-four patients treated by SAC and 220 by stand-alone coiling were retrospectively reviewed and compared using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with propensity scores. Functional outcome, procedure-related and overall complications and angiographic results were analyzed. Aneurysms treated by SAC had a larger diameter, a wider neck and were more frequently located at the posterior circulation. SAC had a higher risk for thromboembolic complications (17.2% vs. 7.7%, p = 0.025), however, this difference did not persist in the IPTW analysis (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7–2.3, adjusted p = 0.458). In the adjusted analysis, rates of procedural cerebral infarction (p = 0.188), ventriculostomy-related hemorrhage (p = 0.584), in-hospital mortality (p = 0.786) and 6-month favorable functional outcome (p = 0.471) were not significantly different between the two groups. SAC yielded a higher complete occlusion (80.0% vs. 67.2%, OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.9–5.4, p < 0.001) and a lower recanalization rate (17.5% vs. 26.1%, OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2–0.6, p < 0.001) than stand-alone coiling at 6-month follow-up. In conclusion, SAC of large and wide-necked RIAs provided higher aneurysm occlusion and similar clinical outcome, when compared to stand-alone coiling.

Antifungal prophylaxis for prevention of COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis in critically ill patients: an observational study

Background Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) emerged as important fungal complications in patients with COVID-19-associated severe acute respiratory failure (ARF). Whether mould active antifungal prophylaxis (MAFP) can prevent CAPA remains elusive so far. Methods In this observational study, we included all consecutive patients admitted to intensive care units with COVID-19-associated ARF between September 1, 2020, and May 1, 2021. We compared patients with versus without antifungal prophylaxis with respect to CAPA incidence (primary outcome) and mortality (secondary outcome). Propensity score adjustment was performed to account for any imbalances in baseline characteristics. CAPA cases were classified according to European Confederation of Medical Mycology (ECMM)/International Society of Human and Animal Mycoses (ISHAM) consensus criteria. Results We included 132 patients, of whom 75 (57%) received antifungal prophylaxis (98% posaconazole). Ten CAPA cases were diagnosed, after a median of 6 days following ICU admission. Of those, 9 CAPA cases were recorded in the non-prophylaxis group and one in the prophylaxis group, respectively. However, no difference in 30-day ICU mortality could be observed. Thirty-day CAPA incidence estimates were 1.4% (95% CI 0.2–9.7) in the MAFP group and 17.5% (95% CI 9.6–31.4) in the group without MAFP (p = 0.002). The respective subdistributional hazard ratio (sHR) for CAPA incidence comparing the MAFP versus no MAFP group was of 0.08 (95% CI 0.01–0.63; p = 0.017). Conclusion In ICU patients with COVID-19 ARF, antifungal prophylaxis was associated with significantly reduced CAPA incidence, but this did not translate into improved survival. Randomized controlled trials are warranted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of MAFP with respect to CAPA incidence and clinical outcomes.

A sex-specific propensity-adjusted analysis of colonic adenoma detection rates in a screening cohort

The prevalence of colorectal adenoma and advanced adenoma (AA) differs between sexes. Also, the optimal age for the first screening colonoscopy is under debate. We, therefore, performed a sex-specific and age-adjusted comparison of adenoma, AA and advanced neoplasia (AN) rates in a real-world screening cohort. In total, 2824 asymptomatic participants between 45- and 60-years undergoing screening colonoscopy at a single-centre in Austria were evaluated. 46% were females and mean age was 53 ± 4 years. A propensity score for being female was calculated, and adenoma, AA and AN detection rates evaluated using uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses for three age groups (group 1: 45 to 49 years, n = 521, 41% females, mean age 47 ± 1 years; group 2: 50 to 54 years, n = 1164, 47% females, mean age 52 ± 1 years; group 3: 55 to 60 years, n = 1139, 46% females, mean age 57 ± 2 years) were performed. The prevalence of any adenoma was lower in females (17% vs. 30%; OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.38–0.55; p < 0.001) and remained so after propensity score adjustment for baseline characteristics and lifestyle factors (aOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41–0.66; p < 0.001). The same trend was seen for AA with a significantly lower prevalence in females (3% vs. 7%; OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.26–0.55; p < 0.001) that persisted after propensity score adjustment (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34–0.86; p = 0.01). Also, all age-group sensitivity analyses showed lower adenoma, AA and AN rates in females. Similar numbers needed to screen to detect an adenoma, an AA or AN were found in female age group 3 and male age group 1. Colorectal adenoma, AA and AN were consistently lower in females even after propensity score adjustment and in all age-adjusted sensitivity analyses. Our study may add to the discussion of the optimal age for initial screening colonoscopy which may differ between the sexes.

Relationship between Oral Bacterial Count and Postoperative Complications among Patients with Cardiovascular Disease Treated by Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

In this retrospective observational study, we evaluated the relationship between perioperative oral bacterial counts and postoperative complications in cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients. From April 2012 to December 2018, all patients scheduled for surgery received perioperative oral management (POM) by oral specialists at a single center. Tongue dorsum bacterial counts were measured on the pre-hospitalization day, preoperatively, and postoperatively. Background data were collected retrospectively. Among the 470 consecutive patients, the postoperative complication incidence rate was 10.4% (pericardial fluid storage, n = 21; postoperative pneumonia, n = 13; surgical site infection, n = 9; mediastinitis, n = 2; and seroma, postoperative infective endocarditis, lung torsion, and pericardial effusion, n = 1 each). Oral bacterial counts were significantly higher in the pre-hospitalization than in the pre- and postoperative samples (p < 0.05). Sex, cerebrovascular disease, and operation time differed significantly between complications and no-complications groups (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis with propensity score adjustment showed a significant association between postoperative oral bacterial count and postoperative complications (odds ratio 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.60; p = 0.05). Since the development of cardiovascular complications is a multifactorial process, the present study cannot show that POM reduces complications but indicates POM may prevent complications in CVD patients.

Convalescent plasma therapy and mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU: a prospective observational study

Background This study aimed to quantify the potential survival benefit of convalescent plasma therapy (CVP) in critically ill patients with acute respiratory failure related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods This is a single-center prospective observational cohort study in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure. Immediately after intensive care unit (ICU) admission patients were allocated to CVP treatment following pre-specified criteria to rapidly identify those patients potentially susceptible for this treatment. A propensity score adjustment [inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) analysis] was implemented to account rigorously for imbalances in prognostic variables between the treatment groups. Results We included 120 patients of whom 48 received CVP. Thirty percent were female with a median age of 66 years [25th–75th percentile 54–75]. Eighty-eight percent of patients presented with severe acute respiratory failure as displayed by a median paO2/FiO2 ratio (Horowitz Index) of 92 [77–150]. All patients required any kind of ventilatory support with more than half of them (52%) receiving invasive ventilation. Thirty-day ICU overall survival (OS) was 69% in the CVP group and 54% in the non-CVP group (log-rank p = 0.049), respectively. After weighing the time-to-event data for the IPTW, the favorable association between CVP and OS became even stronger (log-rank p = 0.035). Moreover, an exploratory analysis showed an overall survival benefit of CVP therapy for patients with non-invasive ventilation (Hazard ratio 0.12 95% CI 0.03–0.57, p = 0.007) Conclusion Administration of CVP in patients with acute respiratory failure related to COVID-19 is associated with improved ICU survival rates.

DOP47 Real World Evidence on the effectiveness of ustekinumab in Crohn’s Disease: Induction phase results from the prospective, observational RUN-CD Study

Background Prospective, observational real world studies on the effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab (UST) in Crohn’s disease (CD) are required in addition to RCTs, usually confined to selected patients, which may not represent special treatment patterns and everyday clinical practice. The aim of the present 3-year RUN-CD study was to investigate the induction phase effectiveness of UST vs. other biologics (OB) in CD in terms of clinical and steroid-free remission at week 16. To the best of our knowledge, RUN-CD is currently the largest prospective real world evidence (RWE) study with UST in CD using propensity score adjustment. Methods Between 2017–2020, 901 CD-patients starting a new therapy with UST or OB, were enrolled in 44 IBD-experienced centers across Germany. After exclusion of missing outcomes, the final sample consisted of 657 patients. Clinical remission (HBI ≤ 4), and steroid-free remission (HBI ≤ 4 and no systemic use of steroids or budesonide during the last 8 weeks) were considered as outcomes at week 16. To reduce the effect of confounders, propensity score (PS) adjustment with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was implemented. A weighted logistic regression was used, and the results were reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results 339 UST (naïve: 34) and 318 OB CD-patients were included (ADA: 50.3%, IFX: 37.4%, VDZ: 12.3%) (naïve: 203). PS removed systematic differences between both groups (30.8% smokers, 15.1% perianal disease, 36.2% surgical resection, 40.5% EIM). The effectiveness of UST for clinical and steroid-free remission was comparable to that of OB at week 16. Besides, in bio-naïve patients, clinical remission was numerically, though not significantly, higher in UST vs OB (Table 1). Similar results were observed in the bio-experienced UST vs. OB groups [remission: 59.3% vs 55.4%; OR: 1.17 (0.73–1.90)]. For both the remission rates were higher in the bio-naïve than in the bio-experienced groups (p&lt;0.05 for both). Conclusion In this prospective RUN-CD study, with propensity score weighted groups, UST showed similar induction effectiveness in comparison with OB therapies. Remarkably higher remission rates were observed in this RWE study than in prior RCTs. An additional favorable safety profile supports consideration of UST as a first-line targeted therapy for CD.