Identifying the Impact-Related Data Uses and Gaps for Hydrometeorological Impact Forecasts and Warnings

Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFW) are key to resilience for hydrometeorological hazards. Communicating the potential social, economic, and environmental hazard impacts allows individuals and communities to adjust their plans and better prepare for the consequences of the hazard. IFW systems require additional knowledge about impacts, and underlying vulnerability and exposure. Lack of data or knowledge about impacts, vulnerability, and exposure has been identified as a challenge for IFW implementation. In this study, we begin to address this challenge by developing an understanding of the data needs and uses for IFWs. Using Grounded Theory Methodology, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data (e.g., warning services, forecasters, meteorologists, hydrologists, emergency managers, data specialists, risk modellers) to understand where these data are needed and used in the Warning Value Chain, a concept used to represent and understand the flow of information amongst actors in the warning chain (Golding et al., 2019). In support of existing research, we found a growing need for creating, gathering, and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. Furthermore, we identified different approaches for impact forecasting and defining impact thresholds using objective models and subjective impact-oriented discussions depending on the data available. We also provided new insight into a growing need to identify, model, and warn for social and health impacts, which have typically taken a back seat to modelling and forecasting physical and infrastructure impacts. Our findings on the data needs and uses within IFW systems will help guide their development and provide a pathway for identifying specific relevant data sources.

Mapping the avalanche risk: from survey to cartographic production. The avalanche bulletin of the Meteomont Service of the Alpine Troops Command

During the last decades, the process of explaining life-threatening natural hazards to the public has become a major public issue from the point of view of effective prevention policies. The avalanche risk and the communication methods aimed at its forecasting and prevention constitute the focus of this paper. Among the strategies for an effective communication of environmental risks, cartography plays a pivotal role. It has proved to be essential not only for communication purposes, but also for the planning of prompt and efficient preventive interventions; in so doing, it contributes to the reduction of avalanche-caused damages and deaths. The paper investigates prevention and forecasting activities of the Meteomont Service of the Alpine Troops Command (COMTA) of Bolzano (capital city of the province of South Tyrol - North Italy), resulting in the daily publication of avalanche bulletins (Bollettini valanghe), which also include hazard maps. Specifically, the phases that contribute to the production of the avalanche bulletin and the embedded avalanche risk maps will be firstly examined; secondly, such maps will be analysed in order to assess their communicative potential for the purpose of a correct interpretation aimed at the effective prevention of snow-related risks in mountain areas. Possible improvement will be proposed on the basis of the experience of several avalanche warning services worldwide.

Sustenance of Indian Moored Buoy Network During COVID-19 Pandemic – A Saga of Perseverance

The moored buoy network in the Indian Ocean revolutionized the observational programs with systematic time-series measurement of in situ data sets from remote marine locations. The real-time meteorological and oceanographic data sets significantly improved the weather forecast and warning services particularly during extreme events since its inception in 1997. The sustenance of the network requires persistent efforts to overcome the multitude of challenges such as vandalism, biofouling, rough weather, corrosion, ship time availability, and telemetry issues, among others. Besides these, the COVID-19 pandemic constrained the normal functioning of activities, mainly by delaying the maintenance of the network that resulted in losing a few expensive buoy system components and precious data sets. However, the improvements in the buoy system, in-house developed data acquisition system, and efforts in ensuring the quality of measurements together with “best practice methods” enabled 73% of the buoy network to be functional even when the cruises were reduced to 33% during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020. The moored buoys equipped with an Indian buoy data acquisition system triggered high-frequency transmission during the Super cyclone Amphan in May 2020, which greatly helped the cyclone early warning services during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 lockdown points toward the reliability and enhanced utility of moored buoy observations particularly when other modes of measurements are limited and necessitates more such platforms to better predict the weather systems. The present study analyzed the enhancement of the buoy program and improvisation of the buoy system that extended the life beyond the stipulated duration and enabled the high-frequency data transmission during cyclones amid the COVID-19 lockdown. The recommendations to better manage the remote platforms specifically in the event of a pandemic based on the operational experience of more than two decades were also presented.

Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: A quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users

Recreationists are responsible for developing their own risk management plans for travelling in avalanche terrain. In order to provide guidance for recreationists on mitigating exposure to avalanche hazard, many avalanche warning services include explicit travel and terrain advice (TTA) statements in their daily avalanche bulletins where forecasters offer guidance about what specific terrain to avoid and what to favour under the existing hazard conditions. However, the use and effectiveness of this advice has never been tested to ensure it meets the needs of recreationists developing their risk management approach for backcountry winter travel. We conducted an online survey in Canada and the United States to determine which user groups are paying attention to the TTA in avalanche bulletins, what makes these statements useful, and if modifications to the phrasing of the statements would improve their usefulness for users. Our analysis reveals that the core audience of the TTA is users with introductory level avalanche awareness training who integrate slope-scale terrain considerations into their avalanche safety decisions. Using a series of ordinal mixed effect models, we show that reducing the jargon used in the advice helped users with no or only introductory level avalanche awareness training understand the advice significantly better and providing additional context for the advice made the advice more useful for them. These results provide avalanche warning services with critical perspectives and recommendations for improving their TTA so that they can better support recreationists who are at earlier stages of developing their avalanche risk management approach and therefore need the support the most.

Elderly Fall Detection Devices Using Multiple AIoT Biomedical Sensors

Due to the influence of degeneration and chronic diseases of elderly people, a higher chance of fall-related injuries occurs among them. Falling is one of the accidents frequently confronted by elderly people, so this issue is worthy of concern. We propose diverse models to analyze falls through a wearable device. Then, we use Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) biomedical sensors for fall detection to build a system for monitoring elderly people’s falls caused by dementia. The system can meet the safety needs of elderly people by providing communication, position tracking, fall detection, and pre-warning services. This device can be worn on the waist of an elderly people. Moreover, the device can monitor whether or not the person is walking normally, transmit the information to the rear-end system, and inform his/her family member via a cellphone app while an accident is occurring. Considering the risks on the fall test of elderly people, this study adopts activities of daily living (ADL) to verify the test. According to the test results, the accuracy of fall detection is 93.7%, the false positive rate is 6.2%, and the false negative rate is 6.5%. To improve the accuracy of fall detection and the timely handling of appropriate referrals, may be highly expected to reduce the occurrence of fall-related injuries. JEL classification numbers: D61, I30, O32. Keywords: Fall Detection, AIoT Sensor, Elderly People.

Design of an Interactive Cellular System for the Remote Operation of Ocean Sensors: A Pilot Study Integrating Radioactivity Sensors

Ocean in-situ sensors are crucial for measuring oceanic parameters directly from the sea in a spatial and temporal basis. Real-time operation is used in many applications related to decision support tools and early warning services in case of accidents, incidents and/or disasters. The design of the proposed system is described as a rapid-response detection system, which aims to measure natural and artificial radioactive contaminants or other crucial ocean parameters, to replace the traditional method of sampling. The development of an interactive cellular system is undertaken using a commercial router that is programmed according to sensor specifications. A radioactivity sensor is integrated in a communication box enabling self-powered operation with a solar panel. The proposed system operates in (near) real-time mode and provides gamma-ray spectra by integrating the sensor and the appropriate electronic modules in it. Additionally, an on-site experiment was conducted to test the operability of the system in a real environment close to the sea, for monitoring fallout due to rainfall and snowfall events. The main intense radionuclides that were observed by different energy lines, were radon progenies (214Bi, 214Pb). The continuous operation of the whole system was controlled by operating the system during the winter period.

The Africa weather enterprise : filling a large gap

<p>The study focuses on the role of the private sector in the development and delivery of hydromet and early warning services (EWS) in sub-Saharan Africa, within the current landscape of the Africa Regional Weather Enterprise (ARWE).</p><p>The study was sponsored by the World Bank and conducted through interviews with 28 National Hydro­Meteorological Services (NMHS) and 87 participating companies who either work in or have interest in the region’s hydromet market, varying in size from single-person entities to large multinationals. Less than 4% of companies have their headquarters (and solely operate) in Africa. 157 projects were identified from the 65 most active donors financing hydromet projects in sub-Saharan Africa, and classified by sector and complexity, from niche to “full-chain” solutions.</p><p>The study analyses which and how private sector actors operate within the framework of national, regional and international hydromet projects, in which countries, which products and services they provide and in which end-user categories, from research and development, to innovation and capacity building initiatives.</p><p>The study further analyses the success rates of international companies winning tenders in sub-Saharan Africa , and the patterns leading to success.</p><p>The report concludes by drawing on lessons from the positive dynamics and gaps in partnerships and engagements between public and private actors. The results of the study create the need for sixteen recommendations to further improve the ARWE, with a key emphasis on PPE, to successfully complete African hydromet programs, and in turn satisfy end-user needs, to protect lives, property, and to support their national economies for the prosperity of all.</p>

Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: Lessons from a study in avalanche safety

Avalanche warning services publish avalanche condition reports, often called avalanche bulletins, to help backcountry recreationists make informed risk management decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. To be successful, the information presented in bulletins must be properly understood and applied prior to entering avalanche terrain. However, few avalanche bulletin elements have been empirically tested for their efficacy in communicating hazard information. The objective of this study is to explicitly test the effectiveness of three different graphics representing the aspect and elevation of avalanche problems on users’ ability to apply the information. To address this question, we conducted an online survey that presented participants with one of three graphic renderings of avalanche problem information and asked them to rank a series of route options in order of their exposure to the described hazard. Following completion of route ranking tasks, users were presented with all three graphics and asked to rate how effective they thought the graphics were. Our analysis dataset included responses from 3,056 backcountry recreationists with a variety of backgrounds and avalanche safety training levels. Using a series of generalized linear mixed effects models, our analysis shows that a graphic format that combines the aspect and elevation information for each avalanche problem is the most effective graphic for helping users understand the avalanche hazard conditions because it resulted in higher success in picking the correct exposure ranking, faster completion times, and was rated by users to be the most effective. These results are consistent with existing research on the impact of graphics on cognitive load and can be applied by avalanche warning services to improve the communication of avalanche hazard to readers of their avalanche bulletins.

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.