Exploring the Energy Saving Potential in Private, Public and Non-Motorized Transport for Ten Swedish Cities

Transport energy conservation research in urban transport systems dates back principally to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) “Arab Oil Embargo” (1973–1974) and the Iranian revolution (1979), when global oil supplies became threatened and costs rose steeply. Two subsequent Gulf Wars (1991 and 2003) highlighted the dangerous geo-political dimensions of Middle-Eastern oil. In latter times, the urgency to reduce global CO2 output to avoid catastrophic climate change has achieved great prominence. How to reduce passenger transport energy use therefore remains an important goal, which this paper pursues in ten Swedish cities, based on five scenarios: (1) increasing the relatively low public transport (PT) seat occupancy in each Swedish city to average European levels (buses 35%, light rail 48%, metro 60% and suburban rail 35%); (2) doubling existing PT seat occupancy in each Swedish city; (3) increasing existing car occupancy in each Swedish city by 10%; (4) decreasing existing energy use per car vehicle kilometer by 15%; (5) increasing existing modal split for daily trips by non-motorized modes to 50% in each city. A sixth “best-case scenario” is also explored by simultaneously combining scenarios 2 to 5. The data used in the paper come from systematic empirical research on each of the ten Swedish cities. When applied individually, scenario 2 is the most successful for reducing passenger transport energy use, scenarios 1 and 4 are next in magnitude and produce approximately equal energy savings, followed by scenario 5, with scenario 3 being the least successful. The best-case, combined scenario could save 1183 million liters of gasoline equivalent in the ten cities, representing almost a 60% saving over their existing 2015 total private passenger transport energy use and equivalent to the combined 2015 total annual private transport energy use of Stockholm, Malmö and Jönköping. Such findings also have important positive implications for the de-carbonization of cities. The policy implications of these findings and the strategies for increasing public transport, walking and cycling, boosting car occupancy and decreasing vehicular fuel consumption in Swedish cities are discussed.

Passenger Transport Energy Use in Ten Swedish Cities: Understanding the Differences through a Comparative Review

Energy conservation in the passenger transport sector of cities is an important policy matter. There is a long history of transport energy conservation, dating back to the first global oil crisis in 1973–1974, the importance and significance of which is explained briefly in this paper. Detailed empirical data on private and public passenger transport energy use are provided for Sweden’s ten largest cities in 2015 (Stockholm, Göteborg, Malmö, Linköping, Helsingborg, Uppsala, Jönköping, Örebro, Västerås and Umeå), as well as Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany, which is a benchmark small city, well-known globally for its sustainability credentials, including mobility. These data on per capita energy use in private and public transport, as well as consumption rates per vehicle kilometer and passenger kilometer for every mode in each Swedish city and Freiburg, are compared with each other and with comprehensive earlier data on a large sample of US, Australian, Canadian, European and Asian cities. Swedish cities are found to have similar levels of per capita car use and energy use in private transport as those found in other European cities, but in the context of significantly lower densities. Possible reasons for the observed Swedish patterns are explored through detailed data on their land use, public and private transport infrastructure, and service and mobility characteristics. Relative to their comparatively low densities, Swedish cities are found to have healthy levels of public transport provision, relatively good public transport usage and very healthy levels of walking and cycling, all of which help to contribute to their moderate car use and energy use.

Automated vehicles will transform transport energy use

Subject Energy usage of automated vehicles. Significance Automated vehicles (AVs) promise to transform the nature of transportation in coming decades, with significant consequences for the energy use of transport. Impacts Automated trucks offer substantial cost savings for freight transport. AVs promise to widen the driver pool, promising particular benefits to those with mobility constraints. Personal drivers will weigh cost and convenience when embracing shared AVs.

Global typology of urban energy use and potentials for an urbanization mitigation wedge

The aggregate potential for urban mitigation of global climate change is insufficiently understood. Our analysis, using a dataset of 274 cities representing all city sizes and regions worldwide, demonstrates that economic activity, transport costs, geographic factors, and urban form explain 37% of urban direct energy use and 88% of urban transport energy use. If current trends in urban expansion continue, urban energy use will increase more than threefold, from 240 EJ in 2005 to 730 EJ in 2050. Our model shows that urban planning and transport policies can limit the future increase in urban energy use to 540 EJ in 2050 and contribute to mitigating climate change. However, effective policies for reducing urban greenhouse gas emissions differ with city type. The results show that, for affluent and mature cities, higher gasoline prices combined with compact urban form can result in savings in both residential and transport energy use. In contrast, for developing-country cities with emerging or nascent infrastructures, compact urban form, and transport planning can encourage higher population densities and subsequently avoid lock-in of high carbon emission patterns for travel. The results underscore a significant potential urbanization wedge for reducing energy use in rapidly urbanizing Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.