From intuition to intelligence: a text mining–based approach for movies' green-lighting process

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a predictive model for box office performance based on the textual information in movie scripts in the green-lighting process of movie production.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to determine the hidden textual structure in movie scripts by extracting topic probabilities as predictors for classification. The extracted topic probabilities are used as inputs for the predictive model for the box office performance. For the predictive model, the authors utilize a variety of classification algorithms such as logistic classification, decision trees, random forests, k-nearest neighbor algorithms, support vector machines and artificial neural networks, and compare their relative performances in predicting movies' market performance.FindingsThis approach for extracting textual information from movie scripts produces a valuable typology for movies. Moreover, our modeling approach has significant power to predict movie scripts' profitability. It provides a superior prediction performance compared to previous benchmarks, such as that of Eliashberg et al. (2007).Research limitations/implicationsThis work contributes to literature on predicting the box office performance in the green-lighting process and literature regarding suggesting models for the idea screening stage in the new product development process. Besides, this is one of the few studies that use movie script data to predict movies' financial performance by proposing an approach to integrate text mining models and machine learning algorithms with movie experts' intuition.Practical implicationsFirst, the authors’ approach can significantly reduce the financial risk associated with movie production decisions before the pre-production stage. Second, this paper proposes an approach that is applicable at a very early stage of new product development, such as the idea screening stage. The authors also introduce an online-based movie scenario database system that can help movie studios make more systematic and profitable decisions in the green-lighting process. Third, this approach can help movie studios estimate movie scripts' financial value.Originality/valueThis study is one of the few studies to forecast market performance in the green-lighting process.

How does film adaptation influence box office performance? An empirical analysis of science fiction films in Hollywood

PurposeThis study aims to identify the factors that influence box office performance in the specific context of the adaptation of science fiction (SF) to film in Hollywood.Design/methodology/approachFifty-one film adaptation cases were collected and empirically analyzed with two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression.FindingsEmpirical analysis demonstrates that the adaptation of the title, the popularity of the original novel and the director's experience in film adaptation have significant impacts on box office performance.Research limitations/implicationsThe study contributes to the literature by bridging the gap between two separate streams of the research literature on film performance and film adaptation. Moreover, the study has extended the literature on the prediction of film performance by examining important factors in the special context of SF film adaptation.Practical implicationsIn the case of film adaptation, recruiting an experienced director will be a good choice. Author power is also required for attracting more investment and increasing audience share in the short term. From a marketing perspective, pointing out in the title that the film is an adaptation of an original novel would be an advantageous approach.Originality/valueThis is among the pioneering research related to the effects of film adaptation on box office performance. The approach and results of this study direct future studies in many aspects.

The impact of online review helpfulness and word of mouth communication on box office performance predictions

While electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) variables, such as volume and valence have been posited in previous studies to consistently affect product sales, there is a lack of studies on the different contexts and outcomes that affect the importance of eWOM variables. In order to fill this gap, this study attempts to use the helpfulness of reviews and reviewers as moderators to predict box office revenue, comparing the prediction performances of business intelligence (BI) methods (random forest, decision trees using boosting, the k-nearest neighbor method, discriminant analysis) using eWOM between high and low review or reviewer helpfulness subsample in the Korean movie market scrawled from the Naver Movies website. The results of applying machine learning methods show that movies with more helpful reviews or those that are reviewed by more helpful reviewers show greater prediction performance, and review and reviewer helpfulness improve the prediction power of eWOM for box office revenue. The prediction performance will improve if the characteristics of eWOM are likely to be combined to contribute to box office revenue to a greater extent.

East Asian films in the European market: the roles of cultural distance and cultural specificity

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of cultural distance on foreign box office performance of East Asian cinematic production in European markets. Predicated on two dimensions of a film's cultural specificity, namely content- and aesthetics-based components, this research advances current knowledge on the moderating effects of cultural specificity.Design/methodology/approachThe authors compile a data set of 515 East Asian films released in European countries during the 2010–2018 period. Data are analyzed by hierarchical linear modeling.FindingsResults show that cultural distance plays a negative role in affecting foreign box office performance and that aesthetics specificity of films weakens such a relationship, while content specificity of films can further strengthen the relationship.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that cultural specificity is a crucial element and a relevant marketing tool in the cross-country film trade. Film producers and distributors need to consider both distribution strategy and intercultural context in order to align effectively with differing cultural distance and specificity.Originality/valueThis study proposes a new categorization framework of cultural specificity and demonstrates the moderating roles of content and aesthetics specificity on the relationship between cultural distance and films' foreign box office performance. It offers implications for both theory and practice in global film marketing and trade.

Winning box office with the right movie synopsis

Purpose Consumers often search for movie information and purchase tickets on the go. A synopsis is often provided by producers and theatres in mobile apps and websites. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, little research has investigated whether the synopsis has an impact on a movie’s box office. This research uses computerized text analysis in examining the influence of linguistic cues of a synopsis on the movie’s financial performance. This paper aims to show that language choice in a synopsis is a significant factor in predicting box office performance. Design/methodology/approach A total usable sample of 5973 movies was collected using a web crawler. Computerised text analysis using linguistic inquiry and word count was adopted to analyse the movie synopses data. The empirical study comprises two phases. Phase 1 used exploratory factor analysis on 50 per cent of the sample (Sample 1) to establish the dimensionality of psychological processes as reflected in the linguistic expressions. The analysis identified 11 linguistic variables that loaded on four dimensions. The factor structure was replicated on an independent sample (Sample 2) using confirmatory factor analysis. Phase 2 tested the hypotheses using structure equation modelling. Findings Results show that consistency between movie genres and linguistic cues in a film synopsis promotes movie box office revenue when linguistic cues shown in the synopsis confirm a consumer’s expectancies about a focal movie genre. Conversely, a synopsis reduces the movie box office revenue when the linguistic cues shown disconfirm the genre-based expectancies. These linguistic cues exert similar effects on action and crime films but different effects on comedies and drama films. Research limitations/implications It is likely that consumer tastes and linguistic styles of film synopses have evolved over time. As a cross-sectional study, such changes were not taken into consideration in the current research. A longitudinal study in the future can reveal the dynamic relationship between film synopses and audience. Practical implications Managerially, the findings show that a synopsis is an effective communication touch point to position a movie. This research provides concrete guidelines in crafting synopses with the “rights words’ aligned with movie-goers’ expectations within each specific genre. Beyond movie consumption, the research findings can be applied to other entertainment products, such as TV series and books. Originality/value To our knowledge, this research is the first in studying the linguistic cues in synopses and its relation to box office performance. It addresses this knowledge gap by answering the basic question of whether movie synopses matter. Methodically, the paper marks the first attempt to use the two-step structural equation modelling method on computerised content analysis data.

A Text Mining Approach for Sustainable Performance in the Film Industry

Many previous studies have shown that the volume or valence of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) has a sustainable and significant impact on box office performance. Traditional studies used quantitative data, such as ratings, to measure eWOM. However, recent studies analyzed unstructured data, such as comments, through web-based text analysis. Based on recent research trends, we analyzed not only quantitative data, like ratings, but also text data, like reviews, and we performed a sentiment analysis using a text mining technique. Studies have also examined the effect of cultural differences on the decision-making processes of individuals and organizations. We applied Hofstede’s cultural theory to eWOM and analyzed the moderating effect of cultural differences on eWOM influence. We selected 338 films released between 2006 and 2015 from the BoxOfficeMojo database. We collected ratings and reviews, box office revenues, and other basic information from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb). We also analyzed the effects of cultural differences, such as power distance, individualism, uncertainty avoidance, and masculinity, on box office performance. We found that user comments have a greater impact on film sales than user ratings, and movie stars and co-production contribute to box office success. We also conclude that cultural and geographical differences moderate the sentiment elasticity of eWOM.