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Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Xinhai Lu ◽  
Yanwei Zhang ◽  
Handong Tang

Cultivated land protection is the top priority of the national economy in China and the livelihood of people. Cultivated land protection policies (CLPP) play an important role in the protection of cultivated land. However, the process of dissemination of CLPP on social networks of farmers has problems, such as distortion of policy content, single dissemination channels, low level of farmers’ knowledge, and low dissemination efficiency. For revealing the characteristics of the dissemination of CLPP in the farmers’ social networks (FSN), this study combines the Suspected–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Suspected (SEIRS) epidemic model to construct a model of CLPP dissemination suitable for FSN. In addition, a numerical simulation of the dissemination process of CLPP is conducted on the FSN, and the influence of the structural characteristics of the FSN and different model parameters on the dissemination of CLPP is analyzed. Results show that (1) the dissemination rate between farmers in FSN has a significant impact on the scale and speed of CLPP. A greater initial dissemination rate corresponds to faster speed and larger scale of CLPP dissemination. (2) A greater node degree in FSN means stronger dissemination ability for CLPP. Therefore, identifying structural holes (opinion leaders) in FSN can effectively promote the dissemination of CLPP. (3) The SEIRS model can dynamically describe the evolution law of CLPP dissemination process over time through the four states of farmer nodes of suspected, exposed, infected, and recovered. Numerical simulation results show that the immune degradation rate is proportional to CLPP. However, the direct immunization rate is inversely proportional. The increase in immune degradation rate can reduce the number of recovered farmers and improve the efficiency of CLPP dissemination. On the basis of the abovementioned conclusions, this study draws policy recommendations to increase the scale and speed of CLPP dissemination in China.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolás Ambrosis ◽  
Pablo Martin Aispuro ◽  
Keila Belhart ◽  
Daniela Bottero ◽  
Renée Leonor Crisp ◽  
...  

Background: The high COVID-19 dissemination rate demands active surveillance to identify asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and oligosymptomatic (APO) SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. This is of special importance in communities inhabiting closed or semi-closed institutions such as residential care homes, prisons, neuropsychiatric hospitals, etc., where risk people are in close contact. Thus, a pooling approach—where samples are mixed and tested as single pools—is an attractive strategy to rapidly detect APO-infected in these epidemiological scenarios.Materials and Methods: This study was done at different pandemic periods between May 28 and August 31 2020 in 153 closed or semi-closed institutions in the Province of Buenos Aires (Argentina). We setup pooling strategy in two stages: first a pool-testing followed by selective individual-testing according to pool results. Samples included in negative pools were presumed as negative, while samples from positive pools were re-tested individually for positives identification.Results: Sensitivity in 5-sample or 10-sample pools was adequate since only 2 Ct values were increased with regard to single tests on average. Concordance between 5-sample or 10-sample pools and individual-testing was 100% in the Ct ≤ 36. We tested 4,936 APO clinical samples in 822 pools, requiring 86–50% fewer tests in low-to-moderate prevalence settings compared to individual testing.Conclusions: By this strategy we detected three COVID-19 outbreaks at early stages in these institutions, helping to their containment and increasing the likelihood of saving lives in such places where risk groups are concentrated.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 7-7
Author(s):  
Berend Van Der Wilk ◽  
Lisanne Neijenhuis ◽  
B Noordman ◽  
Grard A P Nieuwenhuijzen ◽  
M N Sosef ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Nearly one third of esophageal cancer patients show a pathologically complete response in their resection specimens after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) according to CROSS regimen. This raises questions whether all patients benefit from surgery or if active surveillance can be applied to patients with a clinically complete response (cCR) after nCRT. This retrospective-multicenter propensity matched study compared outcomes of patients with a cCR after nCRT undergoing active surveillance or standard surgery. Methods Patients that refused surgery after nCRT between 2012–2017 from 4 hospitals were included. For the standard surgery group, patients from the preSANO trial were enrolled. A cCR was defined as endoscopies with multiple (bite-on-bite) biopsies, EUS-FNA and PET-CT showing no residual disease 6 and 12 weeks after completion of nCRT. Optimal propensity-score matching generated a matched cohort (1:2) matched for age, comorbidities, cT, cN, histology of the tumor and biopsy type. For comparison of severity of complications according to Clavien-Dindo (CD) classification, a separate optimal propensity-score matching cohort was generated (1:2) for all patients in the active surveillance group that underwent surgery. Primary outcome was overall survival, secondary outcomes were rate of radically resected tumors, distant dissemination rate and rate of postoperative complications according to the CD-classification. Results 75 patients were identified of whom 50 patients underwent standard surgery and 25 patients underwent active surveillance. 13 of 25 patients in the active surveillance group underwent surgery for locoregional recurrent disease. Median follow-up was 23.7 months for the standard surgery group and 18.8 months for the active surveillance group. There was no statistically significant difference between the groups in overall survival (HR = 0.48, 95%C.I. 0.10–2.2, P = 0.96). In both groups, all tumors were radically resected. There were no statistically significant differences in distant dissemination rate between the active surveillance and standard surgery group (16.0% versus 22.0%, P = 0.76) or in severity of complications (CD ≥ 3;46.2% versus 23.1%, P = 0.16). Conclusion There was no statistically significant difference in overall survival, distant dissemination rate and severity of complications between patients undergoing standard surgery or active surveillance after nCRT. However, since sample sizes were small, especially for the severity of complications, these results should be interpreted with caution. Disclosure All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Di Luca ◽  
Francesco Severini ◽  
Luciano Toma ◽  
Daniela Boccolini ◽  
Roberto Romi ◽  
...  

We report a study on vector competence of an Italian population of Aedes albopictus for Zika virus (ZIKV). Ae. albopictus was susceptible to ZIKV infection (infection rate: 10%), and the virus could disseminate and was secreted in the mosquito’s saliva (dissemination rate: 29%; transmission rate: 29%) after an extrinsic incubation period of 11 days. The observed vector competence was lower than that of an Ae. aegypti colony tested in parallel.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Wang ◽  
Jianhua Zhang ◽  
Haifeng Guo ◽  
Yuwang Zhang ◽  
Xiaotuo Qiao

We build an information dissemination model based on SIR model to study information dissemination in microblog networks. We consider different influence factors of information dissemination such as activity, credibility, and weight of network and construct calculation methods of various parameters, for instance, direct immune rate, indirect immune rate, and information dissemination rate. Meanwhile, by collecting data from API in Weibo and using the result of microblog information dissemination life cycle analysis, we utilize the model to conduct simulation and get the change trend of proportion in Stages S, I, and R. After comparing with the actual situation, this model is proved to be effective in predicting the trend of information dissemination.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lixia Zuo ◽  
Maoxing Liu

An epidemic model with time delay has been proposed and analyzed. In this model the effect of awareness programs driven by media on the prevalence of an infectious disease is studied. It is assumed that pathogens are transmitted via direct contact between the susceptible and the infective populations and further assumed that the growth rate of cumulative density of awareness programs increases at a rate proportional to the infective population. The model is analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulations. Both equilibria have been proved to be globally asymptotically stable. The results we obtained and numerical simulations suggest the increasing of the dissemination rate and implementation rate can reduce the proportion of the infective population.


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