The reshoring decision under uncertainty in the post-COVID-19 era

Purpose Using insights from the supply chain resilience perspective and the international business literature, this study aims to investigate the determinants of firms’ decisions to reshore manufacturing under the high levels of uncertainty brought about by the ongoing US–China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The proposed conceptual framework is tested using survey data collected from 702 Taiwanese firms with manufacturing in China. The firms were drawn from a database compiled by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Findings The results show that two supply chain factors (tariffs and supply chain completeness) and two non-location-bound factors (labor cost and material cost) are critical determinants of the decision to reshore under uncertainty. Originality/value This research elucidates and empirically validates several factors that influence the reshoring decision in uncertain environments. The findings provide valuable theoretical, practical and strategic insights into how firms should manage their value chains in the post-COVID-19 era.

The Impact of Trade Agreement and War on Specific Indonesia-China Bilateral Trade

This research aims to evaluate the impact of trade agreements and trade war on specific Indonesia-China bilateral trade on four export-import commodities during 2014 - 2019. The methodology used are both descriptive analysis and RCA and EPD analysis. The entire analysis section tries to focus on important periods of economic relations between Indonesia and China, namely the implementation of the 2015 ACFTA and trade war. The results of the study indicate that Indonesia's selected export commodities have huge potential to be developed in bilateral trade with China, especially to maximize the benefits of ACFTA. The implementation of ACFTA 2015 has a positive impact on the growth of the four selected commodities as well as on its competitive analysis. The results of RCA analysis show the four commodities remain including highly competitive, even for palm oil tends to be specialized for Indonesia, however there are differences from EPD analysis results where the two Indonesian export commodities (Animal or Vegetable Fats/ HS15 and Mineral Fuels/ HS27) before the trade war was in the rising star position, it became a lost opportunity, but for the two imported Indonesian commodities, there was no change in staying in the rising star position.

Motif dan Kepentingan China dalam Pembentukan Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

The establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) began because of the conflict between China and Japan. The establishment of RCEP is to create the largest trade agreement in the world because this cooperation unites regional countries with large economies. China as a country that has the largest economic level among RCEP member countries makes China control most of the market in the region. This RCEP helps China in dealing with the trade war between China and the United States, although it has not yet had a big impact. This paper uses a qualitative method and focuses on China's motives in determining the RCEP. The results of this study confirm that China's motive in determining the RCEP is to counter-balance with the TPP and China's good image to Southeast Asian countries. In addition, RCEP has a significant impact on the Chinese economy.

How COVID-19 Pandemic Bolsters China’s Influence Toward Hegemonic Race In ASEAN?

The Covid-19 outbreak that occurred at the end of 2019 added to a long series of global crises at a time when the trade war was still ongoing. The epidemic then quickly spread throughout the world. Southeast Asia is no exception. The presence of this epidemic in Southeast Asia adds to the intensity of the struggle for hegemony between the United States and China. Vaccine diplomacy from China, the United States, and ASEAN itself presents its own dynamics for the competition for hegemony in this region from the two countries. This paper uses a qualitative method approach, where the author presents a critical review of the current dynamics. While the theoretical basis, the author uses the theory of hegemony through non-traditional security approach instruments centered on the vaccine diplomacy competition conducted by two superpower countries. The results show how the dynamics of the superiority of China's vaccine diplomacy are important points and provide broad projections of a new chapter in the struggle for hegemony in Southeast Asia.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative with ASEAN Countries: Examining the Trade Cooperation and Impact of Coronavirus

The rising US–China tension in the global trade war increased the trade cooperation between China and the ASEAN. Consequently, China’s total import and export volume with ASEAN increased tremendously to 684.60 billion USD in 2020, up by 6.7% year on year. This trend is part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which promotes China’s infrastructure building program in the neighboring ASEAN countries and exports China’s technical know-how and engineering standards. However, the recent coronavirus outbreak that stormed China and the rest of the world caused delays to many BRI projects. Subsequently, this outbreak also hit the ASEAN countries and halted many of their mega-projects under the BRI framework. Thus, this study attempts to highlight the trade cooperation and project developments of BRI in the ASEAN countries. In addition, the study features the landscape of BRI projects that were affected by the coronavirus amongst the ASEAN countries.

The Roles of Foreign Ownership and Growth Opportunity amid the Trade War: Evidence from an Emerging Country

In recent years investors tend to divert their investment to emerging economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), especially during the U.S.-China trade war. The present study adopts the Weighted Least Square (WLS) and PROCESS macro tool to examine the effects of foreign ownership and growth opportunity on financial performance of Vietnamese listed firms over the period 2011-2018. Our findings show that foreign ownership plays as moderator variable in the relationship between short-term and long-term performance of firms. Empirical results also reveal that mediating effects of growth opportunity on short-term and long-term performance are different before and after the trade war. These findings have important implications for investors and managers in the ASEAN countries.