general recidivism
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2022 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 101772
Author(s):  
M.J. Eisenberg ◽  
J.E. van Horn ◽  
C.E. van der Put ◽  
G.J.J.M. Stams ◽  
Jan Hendriks

Author(s):  
Priscilla Gregório Hertz ◽  
Marcus Müller ◽  
Steffen Barra ◽  
Daniel Turner ◽  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
...  

AbstractThe VRAG-R is a well-established actuarial risk-assessment instrument, which was originally developed for assessing violent recidivism risk in adult male offenders. Whether or not the VRAG-R can also predict violent recidivism in young offenders is unclear so far. In the emergence of juvenile offending, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) seems to be of major importance suggesting that it could be relevant for risk assessment as well. Thus, we examined the predictive accuracy of the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of N = 106 (M = 18.3 years, SD = 1.8) young offenders and assessed the incremental predictive validity of ADHD symptomatology beyond the VRAG-R. Within a mean follow-up time of M = 13 years (SD = 1.2), n = 65 (62.5%) young offenders recidivated with a violent offense. We found large effect sizes for the prediction of violent and general recidivism and re-incarcerations using the VRAG-R sum scores. Current ADHD symptomatology added incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG-R sum scores concerning the prediction of general recidivism but not of violent recidivism. The results supported the use of the VRAG-R for predicting violent recidivism in young offenders. Because ADHD symptomatology improves the predictive performance of the VRAG-R regarding general recidivism, we argue that addressing ADHD symptoms more intensively in the juvenile justice system is of particular importance concerning a successful long-term risk management in adolescents and young adults.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Blais ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
R. Karl Hanson

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk levels in two samples of individuals with a history of sexual offending (N = 1,081). Study 1 found reasonable correspondence between BARR-2002R scores and four of the five standardized risk levels (no Level V). Study 2 found that the profiles of individuals in Levels II, III, and IV were mostly consistent with expectations; however, individuals in the lowest risk level (Level I) had more criminogenic needs than expected based on the original descriptions of the Five-Levels. The Five-Level system was mostly successful when applied to BARR-2002R. Revisions to this system, or the inclusion of putatively dynamic risk factors and protective factors, may be required to improve alignment with the information provided by certain risk tools.


Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110197
Author(s):  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
James Rokop ◽  
Deirdre M. D’Orazio

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-11
Author(s):  
Maria Aparcero Suero ◽  
Ashley Dickinson

Using a Midwestern sample of sex offenders, the current study reports findings on the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism for offenders with a history of sexual crimes. The current study includes data from a sample of 250 sexual offenders over a 36-month period. This study aims to investigate how three variables – level of education, age and employment status – correlate to recidivism, and if they moderate the effectiveness of the tool in predicting future offending. This study found a statistically significant relationship between total LSI-R score and general recidivism, supporting the predictive utility of the LSI-R for sex offenders. These findings imply the need for intervention programmes focused on young sex offenders to reduce their potential for reoffending. The present study contributes to the available research by increasing the knowledge regarding sexual offender recidivism rates. Keywords: Sex offenders, recidivism, age, level of education, employment


Author(s):  
R. Karl Hanson ◽  
Nicholas Newstrom ◽  
Sébastien Brouillette-Alarie ◽  
David Thornton ◽  
Beatrice “Bean” E. Robinson ◽  
...  

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites ( n = 565) for three time points: near the start of community supervision, at 6 months, and then at 12 months. Given that conventions for analyzing dynamic prediction studies have yet to be established, one of the goals of the current paper was to demonstrate promising statistical approaches for the analysis of longitudinal studies in corrections. In most analyses, static SOTIPS scores predicted all types of recidivism (sexual, violent, and general [any]). Dynamic SOTIPS scores, however, only improved the prediction of general recidivism, and only when the analyses with the greatest statistical power were used (Cox regression with time dependent covariates).


2020 ◽  
pp. 009385482096887
Author(s):  
Shiming Huang ◽  
Michele Peterson-Badali ◽  
Eunice Eunhee Jang ◽  
Tracey A. Skilling

Even though risk assessments are routinely conducted in the criminal justice system to inform sentencing and case management, their cross-cultural applicability remains contested. This study investigated the generalizability of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), a widely implemented youth forensic risk assessment instrument, using an Item Response Theory framework, in a sample of Indigenous ( n = 205) and non-Indigenous ( n = 193) youth. Differential item functioning analyses demonstrated similar discrimination across groups. However, despite similar latent risk levels, non-Indigenous youth were more likely to have items from the Education domain endorsed, while Indigenous youth were more likely to have items from the Substance Abuse domain endorsed. Predictive accuracy analyses indicated that total YLS/CMI scores significantly predicted general recidivism (without administration of justice convictions) for non-Indigenous youth, but not for Indigenous youth. There is an urgent need for more research investigating the applicability of the YLS/CMI to diverse groups of Indigenous youth.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (11) ◽  
pp. 1409-1427
Author(s):  
Chi Meng Chu ◽  
Xuexin Xu ◽  
Dongdong Li ◽  
Kala Ruby ◽  
Grace S. Chng

There is bourgeoning empirical support for the usage of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) across many jurisdictions, but there is a dearth of research on the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk—Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). This study examined (a) the predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings for general recidivism and (b) the incremental predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings when used in conjunction with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) 2.0 ratings. Using a sample of 822 male youths who were involved with the justice system and under community supervision in Singapore, the results showed that the SAPROF-YV total score and final protection judgment rating were significantly predictive of general recidivism. Moreover, the SAPROF-YV total score and final judgment rating showed incremental predictive validity over the YLS/CMI 2.0 total score and risk rating. Overall, the results suggest that SAPROF-YV ratings are suited for assessing justice-involved youth within the Singaporean context and can be used in conjunction with YLS/CMI 2.0 ratings for predicting recidivism.


Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 826-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Y. Rojas ◽  
Mark E. Olver

The present study examined the validity and reliability of a youth sexual offense risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale–Youth Sexual Offense Version (VRS-YSO), on a sample of 102 court-adjudicated youth referred to assessment and/or treatment outpatient services followed up an average of 11.7 years in the community. VRS-YSO scores demonstrated “good” to “excellent” interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs] = .64-.83). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the static and dynamic items identified three latent dimensions consistent with the extant risk literature labeled Sexual Deviance, Antisocial Tendencies, and Family Concerns. VRS-YSO scores showed strong patterns of convergence with scores from the Estimate of Risk for Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II), and the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (J-SORRAT-II). VRS-YSO scores, in turn, demonstrated moderate to high predictive accuracy for sexual, violent (sexual and nonsexual), and general recidivism (significant areas under curve [AUCs] = .67-.88). Examination of pre–posttreatment change data on the subset of youth who attended treatment services found VRS-YSO change scores to be significantly associated with reductions in general recidivism, but not other recidivism outcomes. Future research and clinical applications of the VRS-YSO in youth sexual offense assessment and treatment planning are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (14) ◽  
pp. 2383-2405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Pechorro ◽  
Michael C. Seto ◽  
James V. Ray ◽  
Isabel Alberto ◽  
Mário R. Simões

The present study examines the utility of three self-report measures of psychopathic traits in predicting recidivism among a sample of incarcerated male juvenile offenders. Participants ( N = 214, M = 16.40 years, SD = 1.29 years) from seven Portuguese juvenile detention centers were followed and prospectively classified as recidivists versus non-recidivists. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis revealed that the Antisocial Process Screening Device–Self-Report (APSD-SR) presented the best performance in terms of predicting general recidivism, with the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI) and the Childhood and Adolescent Taxon Scale–Self-Report (CATS-SR) presenting much poorer results. However, logistic regression models controlling for past frequency of crimes and age of first incarceration found that none of these self-report measures significantly predicted 1- or 3-year recidivism, whether general or violent. Findings suggest there are limitations in terms of the incremental utility of self-report measures of psychopathic traits in predicting recidivism among juveniles.


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