High latitude vegetation changes will determine future plant volatile impacts on atmospheric organic aerosols

Strong, ongoing high latitude-warming is causing changes to vegetation composition and plant productivity, modifying plant emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs). In the sparsely populated high latitudes, climatic feedbacks resulting from BVOCs as precursors of atmospheric aerosols could be more important than elsewhere on the globe. Here, we quantitatively assess the linkages between vegetation changes, BVOC emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) under different climate scenarios and show that warming-induced vegetation changes determine the spatial patterns of BVOC impacts on SOA. The northward advances of boreal needle-leaved trees and shrubs result in an increase of up to 45% in regional SOA optical depth, causing a cooling feedback. In contrast, areas dominated by temperate broad-leaved trees show a large decline in monoterpene emissions and SOA formation, causing a warming feedback. We highlight the necessity of considering vegetation shifts when assessing radiative feedbacks on climate following the BVOC-SOA pathway.

Patent landscape of Chinese Classical Formulas

BackgroundChinese Classical Formulas (經典名方, CCFs) are clinically employed formulas that have been documented in the literature since before the Ming era. In 2010, China began focusing on the development and product transformation of CCFs and issued a list of 100 CCFs as a reference. Patents are key components of the process for transferring technology to product; however, they are rarely employed in current CCF research. Therefore, the present study aims to explore the current situation of CCFs based on the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) and provide a reference for researchers, investors, and policymakers to make relevant decisions. MethodsInformation on CCF publication numbers was obtained from the CNIPA, and data for patent applications made before June 30, 2021, on inventors, titles, and abstracts were searched in the patent database, Derwent Innovation. Duplicate application numbers were removed, applications were standardized, and inventors were categorized. The processed data were then used for subsequent analyses. ResultsA total of 287 patents were included in this analysis, and 61 CCFs were patented. Two major policies regarding CCFs in 2011 and 2019 greatly stimulated related patent applications, but lacked sustainability, followed by a relatively large decline in 2012 and 2020. Among the granted patents, 42.59% are analytical methods-related inventions and 24.07% for preparation methods. The percentage of core patents on substance basis and mechanism of action is relatively small. ConclusionPolicies have a significant impact on CCF R&D. The number of CCF patent applications is increasing every year and there is an increasing number of companies as patent applicants, which indicates that CCF is considered to have a good market potential. However, the lack of high quality patents may create difficulties for future development and this will be an important issue to be addressed. Keywords Chinese classical formulations, Chinese medicine, patent, product transformation

Monitoring the Land Covers Around Al- Razaza Lake/ Iraq Based Upon Multi-Temporal Analysis Technique

Remote sensing techniques are very important for the identification of land cover patterns and monitoring changes that occurred, thus three different periods were taken for the Al-Razaza lake region. The Summer and spring months were chosen because climate changes were observed and their effect on land covers was monitored. According to the applied supervised classification, the study area was divided into four land covers, nearly closed Al – Razaza Lake was deeper in its western portions, thick vegetation cover was found. The eastern and southern portion of the lake was bounded by desertic and semi-desertic land. The water level in the lake was fluctuating with different seasons. During the period 2000 and 2015 the area of the lake was height decreased around 320 Km2. Climate changes led to increasing drying out water areas and a high increase in the number of saline areas in 2015. This study shows a significant decrease in water cover In terms of depth and area of the lake due to the large decline in the value of the NDWI index.

The optical properties of three Type II supernovae: 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz

ABSTRACT We present the photometric and spectroscopic analysis of three Type II supernovae (SNe): 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz. SN 2014cx is a conventional Type IIP with shallow slope (0.2 mag/50 d) and an atypical short plateau (∼86 d). SNe 2014cy and 2015cz show relatively large decline rates (0.88 and 1.64 mag/50 d, respectively) at early times before settling to the plateau phase, unlike the canonical Type IIP/L SN light curves. All of them are normal luminosity SN II with an absolute magnitude at mid-plateau of M$_{V,14\mathrm{ cx}}^{50}$=$-16.6\, \pm \, 0.4\, \rm {mag}$, M$_{V,14\mathrm{ cy}}^{50}$=$-16.5\, \pm \, 0.2\, \rm {mag}$, and M$_{V,15\mathrm{ cz}}^{50}$=$-17.4\, \pm \, 0.3\, \rm {mag}$. A relatively broad range of 56Ni masses is ejected in these explosions (0.027–0.070 M⊙). The spectra shows the classical evolution of SNe II, dominated by a blue continuum with broad H lines at early phases and narrower metal lines with P Cygni profiles during the plateau. High-velocity H i features are identified in the plateau spectra of SN 2014cx at 11 600 kms −1, possibly a sign of ejecta-circumstellar interaction. The spectra of SN 2014cy exhibit strong absorption profile of H i similar to normal luminosity events whereas strong metal lines akin to sub-luminous SNe. The analytical modelling of the bolometric light curve of the three events yields similar progenitor radii within errors (478, 507, and 660 R ⊙ for SNe 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz, respectively), a range of ejecta masses (15.0, 22.2, and 20.6 M ⊙ for SNe 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz), and a modest range of explosion energies (3.3–7.2 foe where 1 foe=10 51erg).

Change in vaccine willingness in Australia: August 2020 to January 2021

The ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods ANU COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Program asked the same group of respondents about their vaccine intentions in August 2020 and January 2021. The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals. The paper provides estimates of how vaccine willingness has changed for different population sub-groups and the individual level characteristics which are associated with changes in vaccine willingness. We find an overall decrease in vaccine willingness, with the biggest decline being those who would definitely get a vaccine as of August 2020 but said they would only probably get a vaccine as of January 2021. We also look at the factors associated with vaccine willingness, as well as the factors associated with change through time.Executive summaryThe paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals.There has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021Combined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020.At the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category.There were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent).The largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one. There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance.We found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available.In addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates.Females, Indigenous Australians, those who speak a language other than English at home and those who have not completed Year 12 have all became less willing to get a vaccine since August 2020 compared to the rest of the Australian population.These population groups are arguably the most urgent focus of any public health campaigns to improve willingness, both because they have low willingness to start with, but also because there is the potential opportunity to bring their willingness back to what it was in August 2020 when there was a smaller gap with the rest of the Australian population.There is a real need to consider a significantly enhanced public health campaign in languages other than EnglishThere is a need to convey information to the general public in a way that is informative, reassuring and salient for those without a degree

Republic of Kosovo

Kosovo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite policy support, economic activity is estimated to have fallen 6 percent in 2020 on account of the combined effect of strict domestic containment measures and international travel restrictions. The fiscal deficit increased to 7.7 percent of GDP, given the large fall in tax revenues and the implementation of mitigation and recovery measures of 4.2 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have increased to 7.5 percent of GDP mainly due to a large decline in diaspora-related inflows, most notably in tourism. Gross international reserves declined but remain adequate in part due to the purchase under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in April 2020 and the use of other external financing. Banks have weathered the recession well to date, and the high pre-COVID19 liquidity levels and ample capital buffers bode well for the system’s stability.

Testing the Buffering Effect of Social Relationships in a Prospective Study of Disability Onset

Social support has been proposed to be a protective factor that buffers the losses that result from the experience of negative life events. The present study uses data from a large-scale Australian panel study (the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey) to examine how life satisfaction changes following the onset of a disabling condition and then to test whether preevent or postevent social support moderates reactions to this event. Results show that the onset of a disabling condition is associated with a large decline in life satisfaction, but these changes are not moderated by preevent social support. Postevent social support does moderate change in response to the onset of a disability, but ambiguities in the interpretation of this association must be considered.

The Human Capital Legacy of a Trade Embargo

We estimate the effects of in-utero exposure to a trade embargo on survival and human capital in an import-dependent developing country. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that a nearly comprehensive embargo imposed by India on Nepal in 1989 led to a large decline in reported live births, and increased early life mortality. The decline in births is concentrated in poorer, more remote districts, and is sharper for female births than male births, consistent with documented gender discrimination. Women survivors of exposure are more educated in adulthood than unexposed cohorts.

Victim Incentives and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Bus Driver Robberies in Chile

This paper analyzes crime as a function of the interaction between offenders and victims. I study robbery of bus drivers, a crime that remains common in cities throughout the world. Exploiting the timing of a Chilean public transportation reform and detailed administrative data, I show how victims' propensity to resist an attack can alter the level and nature of criminal activity. I also find a large decline in crime after the implementation of a technological innovation that eliminated cash transactions on buses. My results suggest a strong relationship between victim incentives, cash, and crime.

Evolution of the Initially Recruited SHARE Panel Sample Over the First Six Waves

Attrition is a frequently observed phenomenon in panel studies. The loss of panel members over time can hamper the analysis of panel survey data. Based on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study investigates changes in the composition of the initially recruited first-wave sample in a multi-national face-to-face panel survey of an older population over waves. By inspecting retention rates and R-indicators, we found that, despite declining retention rates, the composition of the initially recruited panel sample in Wave 1 remained stable after the second wave. Thus, after the second wave there is no further large decline in representativeness with regard to the first wave sample. Changes in the composition of the sample after the second wave over time were due mainly to mortality-related attrition. Non-mortality-related attrition had a slight effect on the changes in sample composition with regard to birth in survey country, area of residence, education, and social activities. Our study encourages researchers to investigate further the impact of mortality- and non-mortality-related attrition in multi-national surveys of older populations.