Large-Scale Background and the Role of Quasi-Biweekly Moisture Transport in the Extreme Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

A severe flooding hit southern China along the Yangtze River in summer 2020. The floods were induced by heavy rains, and the associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions are investigated using daily gridded rainfall data of China and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. It is found that the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) experienced pronounced subseasonal variation in 2020, dominated by a quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) mode. The southwestward-moving anomalous QBWO circulation was essentially the fluctuation of cold air mass related to the tropospheric polar vortex or trough-ridge activities over the mid-high latitude Eurasian in boreal summer. The large-scale southwestward-transport of cold air mass from mid-high latitudes and the northeastward-transport of warm and moist air by the strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific provided important circulation support for the heavy rainfall in the YRB. The quasi-biweekly anomalies of potential and divergent component of vertically integrated water vapor flux played a major role in maintaining the moisture during summer 2020. The diagnosis of moisture budget shows that the enhanced moisture associated with the quasi-biweekly fluctuation rainfall was primarily attributed to the moisture convergence. The convergence of QBWO specific humidity by the background mean flow and convergence of mean specific humidity by QBWO flow played dominant roles in contributing to the positive moisture tendency. In combination with an adiabatic ascent induced by the warm temperature advection, the boundary layer moisture convergence strengthens the upward transport of moisture from lower troposphere. The vertical moisture transport associated with boundary layer convergence was of critical importance in causing low-level tropospheric moistening, whereas the horizontal advection of moisture showed a negative effect during the anomalous quasi-biweekly summer rainfall in 2020.

Case study of a moisture intrusion over the Arctic with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model: resolution dependence of its representation

The Arctic is warming faster than the global average and any other region of a similar size. One important factor in this is the poleward atmospheric transport of heat and moisture, which contributes directly to the surface and air warming. In this case study, the atmospheric circulation and spatio-temporal structure of a moisture intrusion event is assessed, which occurred from 5 to 7 June 2017 over the Nordic seas during an intensive measurement campaign over Svalbard. This analysis focuses on high-spatial-resolution simulations with the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) model which is put in context with coarser-resolution runs as well the ERA5 reanalysis. A variety of observations including passive microwave satellite measurements is used for evaluation. The global operational ICON forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) at 13 km horizontal resolution are used to drive high-resolution Limited-Area Mode (LAM) ICON simulations over the Arctic with 6 and 3 km horizontal resolutions. The results show the skilful capacity of the ICON-LAM model to represent the observed spatio-temporal structure of the selected moisture intrusion event and its signature in the temperature, humidity and wind profiles, and surface radiation. In several aspects, the high-resolution simulations offer a higher accuracy than the global simulations and the ERA5 reanalysis when evaluated against observations. One feature where the high-resolution simulations demonstrated an advanced skill is the representation of the changing vertical structure of specific humidity and wind associated with the moisture intrusion passing Ny-Ålesund (western Svalbard); the humidity increase at 1–2 km height topped by a dry layer and the development of a low-level wind jet are best represented by the 3 km simulation. The study also demonstrates that such moisture intrusions can have a strong impact on the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. A drastic decrease in downward shortwave radiation by ca. 500 W m−2 as well as an increase in downward longwave radiation by ca. 100 W m−2 within 3 h have been determined. These results highlight the importance of both moisture and clouds associated with this event for the surface energy budget.

Air temperature equation derived from sonic temperature and water vapor mixing ratio for turbulent airflow sampled through closed-path eddy-covariance flux systems

Air temperature (T) plays a fundamental role in many aspects of the flux exchanges between the atmosphere and ecosystems. Additionally, knowing where (in relation to other essential measurements) and at what frequency T must be measured is critical to accurately describing such exchanges. In closed-path eddy-covariance (CPEC) flux systems, T can be computed from the sonic temperature (Ts) and water vapor mixing ratio that are measured by the fast-response sensors of a three-dimensional sonic anemometer and infrared CO2–H2O analyzer, respectively. T is then computed by use of either T=Ts1+0.51q-1, where q is specific humidity, or T=Ts1+0.32e/P-1, where e is water vapor pressure and P is atmospheric pressure. Converting q and e/P into the same water vapor mixing ratio analytically reveals the difference between these two equations. This difference in a CPEC system could reach ±0.18 K, bringing an uncertainty into the accuracy of T from both equations and raising the question of which equation is better. To clarify the uncertainty and to answer this question, the derivation of T equations in terms of Ts and H2O-related variables is thoroughly studied. The two equations above were developed with approximations; therefore, neither of their accuracies was evaluated, nor was the question answered. Based on first principles, this study derives the T equation in terms of Ts and the water vapor molar mixing ratio (χH2O) without any assumption and approximation. Thus, this equation inherently lacks error, and the accuracy in T from this equation (equation-computed T) depends solely on the measurement accuracies of Ts and χH2O. Based on current specifications for Ts and χH2O in the CPEC300 series, and given their maximized measurement uncertainties, the accuracy in equation-computed T is specified within ±1.01 K. This accuracy uncertainty is propagated mainly (±1.00 K) from the uncertainty in Ts measurements and a little (±0.02 K) from the uncertainty in χH2O measurements. An improvement in measurement technologies, particularly for Ts, would be a key to narrowing this accuracy range. Under normal sensor and weather conditions, the specified accuracy range is overestimated, and actual accuracy is better. Equation-computed T has a frequency response equivalent to high-frequency Ts and is insensitive to solar contamination during measurements. Synchronized at a temporal scale of the measurement frequency and matched at a spatial scale of measurement volume with all aerodynamic and thermodynamic variables, this T has advanced merits in boundary-layer meteorology and applied meteorology.

Assimilation of Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer on Heavy Rainfall Forecast in Beijing

Ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRPS) can provide continuous atmospheric temperature and relative humidity profiles for a weather prediction model. We investigated the impact of assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometers based on the rapid-refresh multiscale analysis and prediction system-short term (RMAPS-ST). In this study, five MWRP-retrieved profiles were assimilated for the precipitation enhancement that occurred in Beijing on 21 May 2020. To evaluate the influence of their assimilation, two experiments with and without the MWRPS assimilation were set. Compared to the control experiment, which only assimilated conventional observations and radar data, the MWRPS experiment, which assimilated conventional observations, the ground-based microwave radiometer profiles and the radar data, had a positive impact on the forecasts of the RMAPS-ST. The results show that in comparison with the control test, the MWRPS experiment reproduced the heat island phenomenon in the observation better. The MWRPS assimilation reduced the bias and RMSE of two-meter temperature and two-meter specific humidity forecasting in the 0–12 h of the forecast range. Furthermore, assimilating the MWRPS improved both the distribution and the intensity of the hourly rainfall forecast, as compared with that of the control experiment, with observations that predicted the process of the precipitation enhancement in the urban area of Beijing.

Potential Contribution of Climate Conditions on COVID-19 Pandemic Transmission over West and North African Countries

COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a very contagious disease that has killed many people worldwide. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the spread of the disease appears to be slower in Africa. Although several studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 transmission, the effects of climate conditions on COVID-19 remain largely unexplored and without consensus. However, the transmission of COVID-19 and sensitivity to climate conditions are also not fully understood in Africa. Here, using available epidemiological data over 275 days (i.e., from 1 March to 30 November 2020) taken from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of the European Union database and daily data of surface air temperature specific humidity and water vapor from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper investigates the potential contribution of climate conditions on COVID-19 transmission over 16 selected countries throughout three climatic regions of Africa (i.e., Sahel, Maghreb, and Gulf of Guinea). The results highlight statistically significant inverse correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature over the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea regions. In contrast, positive correlations are found over the Sahel area, especially in the central part, including Niger and Mali. Correlations with specific humidity and water vapor parameters display significant and positive values over the Sahelian and the Gulf of Guinea countries and negative values over the Maghreb countries. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic transmission is influenced differently across the three climatic regions: (i) cold and dry environmental conditions over the Maghreb; (ii) warm and humid conditions over the Sahel; and (iii) cold and humid conditions over the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, for all three climatic regions, even though the climate impact has been found to be significant, its effect appears to display a secondary role based on the explanatory power variance compared to non-climatic factors assumed to be dominated by socio-economic factors and early strong public health measures.

Extreme Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region: Trend Estimation and Relation With Large-Scale Circulation and Humidity

Extreme precipitation contributes to widespread impacts in the U.S. Great Lakes region, ranging from agricultural losses to urban floods and associated infrastructure costs. Previous studies have reported historical increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the region and downscaled model projections indicate further changes as the climate system continues to warm. Here, we conduct trend analysis on the 5 km NOAA NClimDiv data for the U.S. Great Lakes region using both parametric (Ordinary Least Squares) and non-parametric methods (Theil-Sen/Mann-Kendall) and accounting for temporal autocorrelation and field significance to produce robust estimates of extreme precipitation frequency trends in the region. The approaches provide similar overall results and reflect an increase in extreme precipitation frequency in parts of the U.S. Great Lakes region. To relate the identified trends to large scale drivers, a bivariate self-organizing map (SOM) is constructed using standardized values of 500 hPa geo-potential height and 850 hPa specific humidity obtained from the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we identify six SOM nodes that account for only 25.4% of all days, but 50.5% of extreme precipitation days. Composites of days with and without extreme precipitation for each node indicate that extreme events are associated with stronger features (height gradient and background humidity) than their non-extreme counterparts. The analysis also identifies a significant increase in the frequency of one SOM node often associated with extreme precipitation (accounting for 8.5% of all extreme precipitation days) and a significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation days relative to all days across the six extreme precipitation nodes collectively. Our results suggest that changes in atmospheric circulation and related moisture transport and convergence are major contributors to changes in extreme precipitation in the U.S. Great Lakes region.

Strong regulation of daily variations in nighttime surface urban heat islands by meteorological variables across global cities

Knowledge of the day-to-day dynamics of surface urban heat island (SUHI) as well as their underlying determinants is crucial to a better design of effective heat mitigation. However, there remains a lack of a globally comprehensive investigation of the responsiveness of SUHI variations to meteorological variables. Based on the MODIS LSTs and auxiliary data in 2017, here we investigated 10,000+ cities worldwide to reveal day-to-day SUHI intensity (SUHII) variations (termed as SUHIIdv) in response to meteorological variables using Google Earth Engine. We found that: (1) meteorological variables related to the thermal admittance, e.g., precipitation, specific humidity and soil moisture (represented by daily temperature range in rural area, DTRr), reveal a larger regulation on SUHIIdv than those related to the air conditions (e.g., wind speed and near-surface air temperature) over a global scale. (2) Meteorological regulations on SUHIIdv can differ greatly by background climates. The control of specific humidity on SUHIIdv is significantly strengthened in arid zones, while that of wind speed is weakened prominently in equatorial zones. SUHIIdv is more sensitive to soil moisture in cities with higher background temperatures. (3) All meteorological variables, except that related to soil moisture (DTRr), show larger impact on SUHIIdv with antecedent precipitation over the global scale. Precipitation is observed to mitigate the SUHIIdv globally, and such effects are even more pronounced in equatorial and arid zones. We consider that our findings should be helpful in enriching the knowledge of SUHI dynamics on multiple timescales.

Winter Convective Mixing in the northern Arabian Sea during Contrasting Monsoons

Along-track Argo observations in the northern Arabian Sea during 2017 – 19 showed by far the most contrasting winter convective mixing; 2017 – 18 was characterized by less intense convective mixing resulting in a mixed layer depth of 110 m, while 2018 – 19 experienced strong and prolonged convective mixing with the mixed layer deepening to 150 m. The response of the mixed layer to contrasting atmospheric forcing and the associated formation of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW) in the northeastern Arabian Sea are studied using a combination of Argo float observations, gridded observations, a data assimilative general circulation model and a series of 1-D model simulations. The 1-D model experiments show that the response of winter mixed layer to atmospheric forcing is not only influenced by winter surface buoyancy loss, but also by a preconditioned response to freshwater fluxes and associated buoyancy gain by the ocean during the summer that is preceding the following winter. A shallower and short-lived winter mixed layer occurred during 2017 – 18 following the exceptionally high precipitation over evaporation during the summer monsoon in 2017. The precipitation induced salinity stratification (a salinity anomaly of -0.7 psu) during summer inhibited convective mixing in the following winter resulting in a shallow winter mixed layer (103 m). Combined with weak buoyancy loss due to weaker surface heat loss in the northeastern Arabian Sea, this caused an early termination of the convective mixing (February 26, 2018). In contrast, the winter convective mixing during 2018 – 19 was deeper (143 m) and long-lived. The 2018 summer, by comparison, was characterized by normal or below normal precipitation which generated a weakly stratified ocean pre-conditioned to winter mixing. This combined with colder and drier air from the land mass to the north with low specific humidity lead to strong buoyancy loss, and resulted in prolonged winter convective mixing through March 25, 2019.

The drivers and health risks of unexpected surface ozone enhancements over the Sichuan Basin, China, in 2020

Following a continuous increase in the surface ozone (O3) level from 2013 to 2019, the overall summertime O3 concentrations across China showed a significant reduction in 2020. In contrast to this overall reduction in surface O3 across China, unexpected surface O3 enhancements of 10.2 ± 0.8 ppbv (23.4 %) were observed in May–June 2020 (relative to 2019) over the Sichuan Basin (SCB), China. In this study, we use high-resolution nested-grid GEOS-Chem simulation, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method, and the exposure–response relationship to determine the drivers and evaluate the health risks due to the unexpected surface O3 enhancements. We first use the XGBoost machine learning method to correct the GEOS-Chem model–measurement O3 discrepancy over the SCB. The relative contributions of meteorology and anthropogenic emission changes to the unexpected surface O3 enhancements are then quantified with a combination of GEOS-Chem and XGBoost models. In order to assess the health risks caused by the unexpected O3 enhancements over the SCB, total premature mortalities are estimated. The results show that changes in anthropogenic emissions caused a 0.9 ± 0.1 ppbv O3 reduction, whereas changes in meteorology caused an 11.1 ± 0.7 ppbv O3 increase in May–June 2020 relative to 2019. The meteorology-induced surface O3 increase is mainly attributed to an increase in temperature and decreases in precipitation, specific humidity, and cloud fractions over the SCB and surrounding regions in May–June 2020 relative to 2019. These changes in meteorology combined with the complex basin effect enhance biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), speed up O3 chemical production, and inhibit the ventilation of O3 and its precursors; therefore, they account for the surface O3 enhancements over the SCB. The total premature mortality due to the unexpected surface O3 enhancements over the SCB has increased by 89.8 % in May–June 2020 relative to 2019.

Linking Equatorial African precipitation to Kelvin wave processes in the CP4-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation

Observational studies have shown the link between Convectively Coupled KelvinWaves (CCKWs) and eastward propagating rainfall anomalies. We explore the mechanisms in which CCKWs modulate the propagation of precipitation from west to east over Equatorial Africa. We examine a multi-year state-of-the-art Africa-wide climate simulation from a convection permitting model (CP4A) along with a parameterised global driving-model simulation (G25) and evaluate both against observations (TRMM) and ERA-Interim (ERA-I), with a focus on precipitation and Kelvin wave activity. We show that the two important related processes through which CCKWs influence the propagation of convection and precipitation from west to east across Equatorial Africa are: 1) low-level westerly wind anomalies that lead to increased low-level convergence, and 2) westerly moisture flux anomalies that amplify the lower-to-mid-tropospheric specific humidity. We identify Kelvin wave activity using zonal wind and geopotential height. Using lagged composite analysis, we show that modelled precipitation over Equatorial Africa can capture the eastward propagating precipitation signal that is associated with CCKWs. Composite analysis on strong (high-amplitude) CCKWs shows that both CP4A and G25 capture the connection between the eastward propagating precipitation anomalies and CCKWs. In comparison to TRMM, however, the precipitation signal is weaker in G25, while CP4A has a more realistic signal. Results show that both CP4A and G25 generally simulate the key horizontal structure of CCKWs, with anomalous low-level westerlies in phase with positive precipitation anomalies. These findings suggest that for operational forecasting, it is important to monitor the day-to-day Kelvin wave activity across Equatorial Africa.