The impact of invisible-spreaders on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption

The global impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unprecedented, and many control and prevention measures have been implemented to test for and trace COVID-19. However, invisible-spreaders, who are associated with nucleic acid detection and asymptomatic infections, have received insufficient attention in the current COVID-19 control efforts. In this paper, we analyze the time series infection data for Italy, Germany, Brazil, India and Sweden since the first wave outbreak to address the following issues through a series of experiments. We conclude that: 1) As of June 1, 2020, the proportion of invisible-spreaders is close to 0.4% in Sweden, 0.8% in early Italy and Germany, and 0.4% in the middle and late stages. However, in Brazil and India, the proportion still shows a gradual upward trend; 2) During the spread of this pandemic, even a slight increase in the proportion of invisible-spreaders could have large implications for the health of the community; and 3) On resuming work, the pandemic intervention measures will be relaxed, and invisible-spreaders will cause a new round of outbreaks.

A Case Study on China’s Policies of Promoting Work Resumption During the COVID-19 Pandemic — Perspective of Policy Resilience

During the COVID-19 pandemic, China has achieved high recovery efficiency. One of the most important reasons behind this is the effective poli­cies of promoting work resumption. Why can such policies maintain steady performance despite the high level of environmental uncertainties? This ques­tion can be answered from the perspective of policy resilience. This study employed a policy evaluation model for analyzing quantitative data of 342 poli­cies of promoting work resumption. We evaluate the policies through the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC-index) model and text mining methods. The results show that: first, the contents and elements of all policies have consistent characteristics, including the combination of multiple policy tools, the combi­nation of support for work resumption and pandem­ic control, the incentives to support effective policy implementation, and the reasonable match between macro and micro policies as well as short-term and long-term policies. Second, among the nine policies that are randomly selected from the sample, one is rated excellent and the other eight are good, indicat­ing that China’s policies of promoting work resump­tion have good resilience.

Impact of work resumption on air quality after subsiding of COVID-19: evidence from China

This paper explores the short-run impact of work resumption, extensively launched on February 10, 2020 in China, on air quality after the subsiding of COVID-19. Utilizing the data of 1012 air-quality monitoring sites in 233 cities derived from the Real-time Release Air Quality Platform and the difference-in-differences method, we find that alternative measures of air quality index in non-Hubei provinces increase significantly, compared with those in Hubei province which was temporarily not allowed work resumption due to the severity of epidemic. Specifically, our results reveal a rise in AQI of 11.28 per cent, in PM2.5 of 12.47 per cent, in PM10 of 10.49 per cent, and in NO2 of 23.64 per cent, relative to the baseline mean. Moreover, the deterioration of air quality is found to be caused by intracity rather than intercity migration.

An Analysis of the Work Resumption in China under the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on Night Time Lights Data

Public emergencies often have an impact on the production and operation of enterprises. Timely and effective quantitative measurement of enterprises’ offline resumption of work after public emergencies is conducive to the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. In this study, we analyze the level of work resumption after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-influenced Chinese Spring Festival in 2020 with night time lights remote sensing data and Baidu Migration data. The results are verified by official statistics and facts, which demonstrates that COVID-19 has seriously affected the resumption of work after the Spring Festival holiday. Since 10 February, work has been resuming in localities. By the end of March, the work resumption index of most cities exceeded 70% and even Shanghai, Nanjing and Suzhou had achieved complete resumption of work. Wuhan only started to resume work in the last week of March due to the more severe outbreak. Although the level of work resumption is gradually increasing in every area, the specific situation of resumption of work varies in different regions. The process of work resumption in coastal areas is faster, while the process is relatively slow in inland cities.

Air Pollution and Post-COVID-19 Work Resumption: Evidence from China

To cope with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), national or subnational regions have carried out anti-pandemic measures such as locking down, which may improve their air quality. This paper examines the relation between air pollution and work resumption from a novel post-pandemic perspective. Using unique data on detailed industrial electricity consumption in China, this paper doesn't find a positive relation between post-COVID-19 work resumption and air pollution during the early-stage recovery. This result is obtained after controlling for province and date fixed effects, as well as local weather conditions. However, the positive relation is found for a particular subsample of large industrial enterprises and April. This finding indicates that large industrial enterprises may recover first, and the resumption is progressing gradually. Finally, several policy implications are provided, which are essentially helpful for other countries’ post-pandemic recovery.

Sustainable Allocation Model of Construction Workforce for Work Resumption during COVID-19

COVID-19 has posed challenges for the construction industry, such as precise pandemic control, sustainable labor relations, and loss minimization. In response to these challenges, this study has developed a decision model that optimizes workforce allocation for projects to achieve sustainable workforce management, a tradeoff between pandemic prevention and work resumption. The priority of project resumption was evaluated using basic characteristics, the long- and short-term strategies, and the regional pandemic situation. The energy level of skilled workers was graded according to construction team size, skill level, and experience. Sustainable allocation principles and paths were explored to target four different types of work resumption plans. We used the cellular automaton (CA) technique to simulate the sustainable allocation model. We also analyzed the similarity function of energy levels and the time-cost function of allocation. The case study of the SGJ Construction demonstrates that this allocation model can accurately simulate work resumption and provide a sustainable allocation decisions and tools under pandemic. Also, it implies balanced interests and concerns between construction companies and the society for work resumption during COVID-19.

Work Resumption Rate and Migrant Workers' Income During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 public health crisis has quickly led to an economic crisis, impacting many people and businesses in the world. This study examines how the pandemic affects workforces and workers' income. We quantify the impact of staggered resumption of work, after the coronavirus lockdowns, on the migrant workers' income. Using data on population movements of 366 Chinese cities at the daily level from the Baidu Maps-Migration Big Data Platform and historical data on the average monthly income of migrant workers, we find that the average work resumption rate (WRR) during the period of the Chinese Lantern Festival was 25.25%, which was only 30.67% of that in the same matched lunar calendar period in 2019. We then apply Gray Model First Order One Variable [GM (1, 1)] to predict the monthly income of migrant workers during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that, if without the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average monthly income of migrant workers in 2020 will be expected to increase by 12% compared with 2019. We further conduct scenario analysis and show that the average monthly income of migrant workers in 2020 under the conservative scenario (COS), medium scenario (MES), and worse scenario (WOS) will be predicted to decrease by 2, 21, and 44%, respectively. Through testing, our prediction error is <5%. Our findings will help policymakers to decide when and how they implement a plan to ease the coronavirus lockdown and related financial support policies.

Work Resumption after a Fixed-Term Disability Pension: Changes over Time during a Period of Decreasing Incidence of Disability Retirement

The incidence of disability retirement in Finland has sharply decreased over the last ten years. At the same time, the share of fixed-term pensions has increased to cover more than half of all new disability pensions. This study examined the efficiency of fixed-term disability pensions under these changing circumstances with the aim of addressing the following research questions: are fixed-term disability pensions more often converted to permanent pensions, and how have the changes affected return to work? The study was based on register data of Finnish residents aged 25–62 whose fixed-term disability pension started in 2006 (n = 10,177) or 2015 (n = 7918). Of the fixed-term disability pensions starting in 2006, 58 percent were converted to a permanent disability pension within the next four years. In 2015, the corresponding figure was 41 percent. Return to work increased from 24 to 30 percent. In addition, ending up in some other state (most often unemployment) increased, and, more often, fixed-term disability pensions continued for more than four years. Transferring to a permanent disability pension decreased more among the younger, those with a lower education, and those suffering from mental disorders. The results were not notably affected by changes in the characteristics of fixed-term disability pension recipients (e.g., demographic and occupational characteristics and rehabilitation) or the selection of applicants into a fixed-term or a permanent pension. Return to work increased more among men, the older age groups, those with a fixed-term disability pension due to somatic diseases, and those who had received vocational rehabilitation. Adjusting for the composition of fixed-term disability pensioners increased the differences between the study years, and controlling for the selection into a fixed-term pension further widened the differences. In conclusion, a decreasing proportion of fixed-term disability pensions are converted to permanent pensions, but this is only partly reflected in increased return to work. Further efforts are needed to support work resumption after a fixed-term disability pension to avoid the situation where people drop out from disability pension but are resting on unemployment and other benefits.