stratospheric circulation
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2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Eichinger ◽  
Mohamadou Diallo ◽  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Petr Pisoft

<p>The recent release of the long-term ERA5 reanalysis data spanning from 1950 to present offers new opportunities for analysing trends and variability of stratospheric dynamics. For the first time, a 60 year period (1960-2020) can be analysed in reanalysis data and compared with chemistry-climate model simulations. The analyses of stratospheric circulation trends and seasonalities over this long time period can help us to better understand the long-term evolution of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and the related inter-model differences and model dependencies. Therefore, this way an improved credibility in future projections of the BDC can be obtained.<br />We find that the global trend patterns of the temperature, zonal wind and residual vertical velocity agrees well between ERA5 and the multi model mean. However, differences occur in the width and altitude of the maximum trend. The tropical upwelling mass flux time series in the lower stratosphere of models and reanalysis disagrees at the beginning of the period, but they converge after around 1980. The agreement of the time series increases with altitude, where the QBO dominates the signal. Moreover, we find a generally good agreement in the zonal wind trends, although some differences are detected in the subtropical jet strength and upward shift, as well as in the polar vortex region where the models exhibit larger changes than ERA5. Another striking difference is the temperature trend in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, where models show a more extended warming trend into the lower stratosphere. In this presentation, we show these results, put them in relation to what had been shown in previous studies for other time periods and discuss possible explanations for the differences as well as implications for the further evolution of the BDC.</p>


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-184
Author(s):  
ANIL KUMAR ROHILLA ◽  
D. S. PAI ◽  
M. RAJEEVAN

In this study teleconnections between monthly northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights (100, 50, 30 hPa) and seasonal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) have been established through the correlation analysis. Stable and consistent precursory signals for the ensuing monsoon were identified from the significant teleconnections. The usefulness of the precursory signals for the prediction of ISMR was also tested using a simple multiple linear regression model. These precursory signals show a good potential in the long range prediction scheme of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 6647-6660
Author(s):  
Hao-Jhe Hong ◽  
Thomas Reichler

Abstract. Recent observational and modeling studies show that variations of stratospheric ozone and the resulting interaction between ozone and the stratospheric circulation play an important role in surface weather and climate. However, in many cases, computationally expensive coupled chemistry models have been used to study these effects. Here, we demonstrate how a much simpler idealized general circulation model (GCM) can be used for studying the impact of interactive stratospheric ozone on the circulation. The model, named Simplified Chemistry-Dynamical Model (SCDM V1.0), is constructed from a preexisting idealized GCM, into which a simplified linear ozone scheme and a parameterization for the shortwave radiative effects of ozone are implemented. The distribution and variability of stratospheric ozone simulated by the new model are in good agreement with the MERRA2 reanalysis, even for extreme circulation events such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings. The model thus represents a promising new tool for the study of ozone–circulation interaction in the stratosphere and its associated effects on tropospheric weather and climate.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Bo Pang ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Riyu Lu ◽  
Rongcai Ren

AbstractThis study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 638-644
Author(s):  
Brian Zambri ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Qiang Fu

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Rupp ◽  
Sheena Loeffel ◽  
Hella Garny ◽  
Xiaoyang Chen ◽  
Joaquim G Pinto ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Ruiz ◽  
Michael J. Prather

Abstract. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is an important source of tropospheric ozone, affecting all of atmospheric chemistry, climate, and air quality. Observations and the theory of tracer correlations provide only coarse (±20 %) global-mean constraints. For fluxes resolved by latitude and month we rely on global chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and unfortunately, these results diverge greatly. Overall, we lack guidance from model-measurement metrics that inform us about processes and patterns related to the STE flux of ozone. In this work, we use modeled tracers (N2O, CFCl3) whose distributions and budgets can be constrained by satellite and surface observations, allowing us to follow stratospheric signals across the tropopause. The satellite derived photochemical loss of N2O on annual and quasi-biennial cycles can be matched by the models. The STE flux of N2O-depleted air in our CTM drives surface variability that closely matches observed fluctuations on both annual and quasi-biennial cycles, confirming the modeled flux. The observed tracer correlations between N2O and O3 in the lowermost stratosphere provide a seasonal, hemispheric scaling of the N2O flux to that of O3. For N2O and CFCl3, we model greater southern hemispheric STE fluxes, a result supported by some metrics, but counter to prevailing theory of wave-driven stratospheric circulation. The STE flux of O3, however, is predominantly northern hemispheric, but observational constraints show that this is only caused by the Antarctic ozone hole. Here we show that metrics founded on observations can better constrain the STE O3 flux which will help guide future model assessments.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Statnaia ◽  
Alexey Karpechko ◽  
Heikki Järvinen

<p>The weather-dependent planning and decision-making benefit greatly from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather predictions made for up to six weeks ahead. At this timescale anomalies in the extratropical stratospheric circulation, which can last for several weeks in the Northern Hemisphere during winter, are known to affect climate at the surface and can extend the predictability of tropospheric weather conditions. The downward influence of the stratospheric circulation anomalies on the troposphere is projected by the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). Because of the long persistence of stratospheric anomalies beyond typical weather timescale, the increase in forecast skill is possible for the regions influenced by the atmospheric circulation variability associated with NAM based on the stratospheric predictor.</p><p>In this study, we investigate the predictability of the Eurasian severe and persistent cold spells during winter and its dependence on the state of the stratosphere. We first detected the below-normal surface temperature events over northern Eurasia (cold spells) in the ERA5 re-analysis. Then, to assess the predictability of these cold spells and to evaluate the skill in the probabilistic re-forecasts we divided them into groups associated with different stratospheric circulation anomalies which took place prior to the below-normal temperature events. When the stratospheric vortex is strong it is not expected to favor cold air outbreaks in this region. Therefore, in these cases, the cold air outbreaks result from internal tropospheric dynamics and their predictability is limited by the chaotic behavior of the weather systems. On the other hand, the weakening of the vortex is characterized by a more negative NAM index. This weakening is often followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jets, an increase in the frequency of occurrence of tropospheric blocking, and cold air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. In these cases, the stratospheric vortex weakening can lead to the statistically significant improvement of the skill of cold air outbreak forecasts in case if the forecast model is capable of properly representing the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. We show that the predictability of cold spells in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is enhanced under weak vortex conditions starting from week 3 before the event. We also evaluate how the surface predictability is affected by model imperfections by comparing the predictability across different S2S models.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 8823-8843
Author(s):  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
Udo Grabowski ◽  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz ◽  
Norbert Glatthor ◽  
...  

Abstract. Measurements of long-lived trace gases (SF6, CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-22, CCl4, N2O, CH4, H2O, and CO) performed with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) have been used to infer the stratospheric and mesospheric meridional circulation. The MIPAS data set covers the time period from July 2002 to April 2012. The method used for this purpose was the direct inversion of the two-dimensional continuity equation for the concentrations of trace gases and air density. This inversion predicts an “effective velocity” that gives the best fit for the evolution of the concentrations on the assumption that an explicit treatment of Fickian diffusion can be neglected. These effective velocity fields are used to characterize the mean meridional circulation. Multiannual monthly mean effective velocity fields are presented, along with their variabilities. According to this measure, the stratospheric circulation is found to be highly variable over the year, with a quite robust annual cycle. The new method allows us to track the evolution of various circulation patterns over the year in more detail than before. According to the effective velocity characterization of the circulation, the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and the mesospheric overturning pole-to-pole circulation are not separate but intertwined phenomena. The latitude of stratospheric uplift in the middle and upper stratosphere is found to be quite variable and is not always found at equatorial latitudes. The usual schematic of stratospheric circulation with the deep and the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and the mesospheric overturning circulation is an idealization which best describes the observed atmosphere around equinox. Sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation cause a pronounced year-to-year variability of the meridional circulation.


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