EVALUASI PERFORMA INDEKS MONSUN AUSMI DAN WNPMI DI WILAYAH INDONESIA

Intisari Iklim di wilayah Indonesia sangat dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas monsun Asia-Australia. Variabilitas kedua sistem monsun tersebut dapat direpresentasikan dengan baik masing-masing oleh indeks monsun Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) dan Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI). Saat ini, BMKG secara operasional menggunakan indeks AUSMI dan WNPMI untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia sebagai bahan prakiraan musim. Meskipun banyak literatur menyatakan bahwa wilayah Indonesia merupakan bagian dari sistem monsun Asia-Australia, namun kondisi topografi lokal yang kompleks berpotensi memodifikasi sirkulasi monsun sehingga perlu dikaji performa kedua indeks tersebut sebelum digunakan secara operasional. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menguji performa indeks monsun AUSMI dan WNPMI dalam menggambarkan variasi antartahunan (interannual), variasi dalam musim (intraseasonal), dan siklus tahunan (annual cycle) hujan monsun Indonesia. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa kedua indeks memiliki performa yang sangat baik hanya di wilayah dimana indeks tersebut didefinisikan namun kurang baik untuk wilayah Indonesia seperti yang ditunjukan oleh nilai koefisien korelasi yang tidak signifikan dari hasil uji statistik antara kedua indeks dengan curah hujan dari Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pada periode 1981-2010. Selain itu, kedua indeks juga memperlihatkan karakteristik siklus tahunan yang berbeda dengan karakteristik siklus tahunan hujan wilayah Jawa sebagai wilayah kunci monsun Indonesia. Hasil ini mengindikasikan perlunya pendefinisian indeks sendiri untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia. Abstract The climate of Indonesia is strongly affected by the Asian-Australian monsoon system. The variability of the two monsoon systems can be well represented by the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) and the Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) respectively. For producing seasonal forecast, BMKG uses the WNPMI and AUSMI monsoon index to monitor monsoon activity in Indonesia. Although most literature states that the Indonesian region is part of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, the complex local topography may modify the monsoon circulation. Hence, it is necessary to assess the performance of the two indices before they are operationally used. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the AUSMI and WNPMI monsoon indices in describing the annual cycle, intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Indonesian monsoon rainfall. The results revealed that the two indices only performed very well in the areas where the index was defined but lack of skill for the Indonesian region because of insignificant linear correlation based on a statistical significance test between the two indices and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall in the 1981-2010 period. In addition, both monsoon indices and Java rainfall showed different characteristics of the annual cycle. These results indicate that it is necessary to define a specific index for monitoring monsoon activity in Indonesia.

The Australian monsoon Part-I : Climatological features and the Asian connection

Climatological fields of several meteorological variables associated with the Australian summer monsoon, as revealed by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, are reviewed in the context of observed weather and climate over the continent and surrounding regions. Inter-hemispheric distributions of pressure, temperature and circulation features suggest a see-saw relationship of the Australian monsoon with the monsoons of Asia during both summer and winter. Computed values of cross-equatorial fluxes of air appear to lend credence to this hypothesis.

275 Access to Shade Mitigate Heat Stress and Improves Growth Performance in Lambs During Summer

The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of provision of shade on behavior, physiology, and growth of Merino lambs exposed to natural Australian summer conditions. Sixty Merino lambs were randomly allocated to either pasture with shade (n = 30;paddock with trees) or a pasture without shade (n = 30;paddock without any trees) for one month during southern-Australian summer (February-2021). Sheep were grazing on the pastures as per standard protocols followed on the farm with ad libitum access to water. Lambs were monitored twice daily between 0900-1000h and 1400-1600h to record their behavior, and physiological parameters were recorded on hot days (environmental temperature (T) >30°C). Behavioral patterns were represented as the proportion of animals doing specific activities in each treatment group. Grazing was the most frequent activity observed in animals during morning measurement (> 60% in both groups). However, high temperature (T > 30°C) decreased grazing behavior in sheep to < 5% in both treatments. Standing behavior was significantly greater (65.2 vs 21.6%; P < 0.05) for animals under non-shade treatment, while lying behavior was more frequent (17.3 vs 76.3%; P < 0.01) in animals having access to shade. Significantly more animals were seeking water troughs (P < 0.05) in the non-shade group (33.2%) compared to the shade group (10.3%). On an average hot day (T >28°C), most lambs in the shade group were seeking shade (P < 0.01), and when the temperature exceeded >32°C, 90% of the lambs were seeking tree shade. Sheep with access to shade exhibited lower (P < 0.01) respiration rate (117breaths/min) and rectal temperature (39.7°C) than non-shade group (151breaths/min;40.2°C). Overall, access to shade improved (P < 0.001) average daily gain (+0.047kg/day) in sheep compared to the non-shade group (-0.028kg/day). In conclusion, our research confirms that providing access to shade is an effective ameliorative strategy to mitigate heat-stress in sheep during summer heatwaves.

Remote influence of the interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon on wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific

Anomalous convective activity in the Tropics forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts significant remote influence that provides a basis for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. In austral summer convective activity exhibits pronounced interannual variability over northern Australia (NAUS), which is, however, unlikely forced by SST anomalies but essentially a manifestation of internal variability of the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) system. Based on observational data, the present study reveals its significant remote impacts on the wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific. The anomalous AUSM excites the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, as confirmed through an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. Through this cross-equatorial teleconnection, the enhanced AUSM leads to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon with a colder winter over the Korean Peninsula and western Japan and reduced precipitation over southern China. The Okhotsk sea-ice extent decreases under warm anomalies and weakened offshore winds. The weakened AUSM leads to the same anomalies but with the opposite polarities. Our observational data analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the WP-like anomalies are excited by the propagation of stationary Rossby waves generated by anomalous upper-level divergent wind from NAUS that extends into the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. The climatological Hadley circulation is essential in this process. The concomitant anomalous diabatic heating over East Asia and feedback forcing by transient eddies along the Pacific stormtrack act to further amplify the WP-like response.

Policy Implications for Protecting Health from the Hazards of Fire Smoke. A Panel Discussion Report from the Workshop Landscape Fire Smoke: Protecting Health in an Era of Escalating Fire Risk

Globally, and nationally in Australia, bushfires are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change. To date, protection of human health from fire smoke has largely relied on individual-level actions. Recent bushfires experienced during the Australian summer of 2019–2020 occurred over a prolonged period and encompassed far larger geographical areas than previously experienced, resulting in extreme levels of smoke for extended periods of time. This particular bushfire season resulted in highly challenging conditions, where many people were unable to protect themselves from smoke exposures. The Centre for Air pollution, energy and health Research (CAR), an Australian research centre, hosted a two-day symposium, Landscape Fire Smoke: Protecting health in an era of escalating fire risk, on 8 and 9 October 2020. One component of the symposium was a dedicated panel discussion where invited experts were asked to examine alternative policy settings for protecting health from fire smoke hazards with specific reference to interventions to minimise exposure, protection of outdoor workers, and current systems for communicating health risk. This paper documents the proceedings of the expert panel and participant discussion held during the workshop.

Synchronous climate change between the Arctic and the Asian and Indo-Australian summer monsoon domains at the Younger Dryas termination

<p>The end of the Younger Dryas (YD) was Earth’s last major abrupt climate event and is most vividly preserved in the water-isotope (ice δ<sup>18</sup>O), calcium (Ca<sup>2+</sup>) and methane-concentration (CH<sub>4</sub>) series of Greenland ice cores. Although numerous palaeoclimate records span this transition, surprisingly few have the dating precision necessary to test whether or not abrupt warming in Greenland was accompanied by synchronous climate changes beyond the Arctic. Speleothems, with their exceptional absolute chronologies, are well placed to conduct such a test.</p><p>Here we apply a change-point detection algorithm to new and published speleothem δ<sup>18</sup>O records of the YD from the Indo-Australian summer monsoon and Asian summer monsoon domains to compare the synchronicity of hydroclimate changes across the YD termination. The algorithm, which identifies the age (and its uncertainty) of a regime shift in a time series, was applied to the 13 - 11 ka interval of each speleothem record. The results yield an error-weighted mean YD-termination age of 11.55 ± 0.02 ka BP (2σ), supporting the hypothesis of a closely coupled monsoon seesaw. Analysis of the Greenland NGRIP ice-core δ<sup>18</sup>O and Ca<sup>2+</sup> records on the GICC05 chronology for the same interval produces a YD-termination age of 11.63 ± 0.10 ka BP. Although the NGRIP and speleothem ages overlap within uncertainties, this hints at a possible Arctic lead over the tropics. However, if we apply a correction to the GICC05 chronology based on recent ice-core <sup>10</sup>Be and tree-ring <sup>14</sup>C synchronisation, the change-point analysis gives a NGRIP termination age of 11.57 ± 0.02 ka BP. This revised timing is consistent with the Cariaco Basin greyscale record (11.56 ± 0.02 ka BP). It also brings the NGRIP and Antarctic WAIS Divide ice-core CH<sub>4</sub> records into perfect alignment across the transition. This assemblage of ages from geographically dispersed regions suggests that hydroclimate changes associated with the YD termination were synchronous, at least to within a couple of decades. It also calls for a revision to the onset age of the Greenlandian Stage (the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary).</p>

Revision of the Australian soldier fly genus Antissella White, 1914, including six new species (Stratiomyidae: Antissinae)

Antissella White, 1914 is a small genus of soldier flies endemic to Australia, previously thought to comprise only two described species and suspected to have a role in pollination. Six new species of Antissella are named, described and illustrated herein, and an updated identification key to all known species is provided. The new species include: Antissella alicespringsensis Lessard & Woodley sp.n., Antissella elongata Lessard & Woodley, sp.n., Antissella kalbarriensis Lessard & Woodley sp.n., Antissella nigricentralis Lessard & Woodley sp.n., Antissella ottensorum Lessard & Woodley, sp.n., and Antissella purprasina Lessard & Woodley, sp.n. A lectotype and paralectotype are also selected for Antissella quinquecella (Macquart, 1846). Eight species of Antissella are now recognised from Australia. Three of the new species are known from areas burned by the devastating 2019/2020 Australian summer bushfires. Now that they are formally named and described, the species may be recognised in future bushfire recovery monitoring programs.