Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Acidification in the Mediterranean Sea following a transient climate change scenario simulated with a high-resolution regional model

<p>Oceans contribute to the removal of 25%-30% of the atmospheric anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub>, which increase sea water CO<sub>2</sub> concentration and acidity, and decrease the Aragonite saturation state that may cause problems for calcium carbonate skeletons of marine species. The Mediterranean Sea is a specific environment with a higher alkalinity and a fast ventilation that is in favor of a more important uptake of  anthropogenic CO2 relatively to global ocean, and an acidification process impacting the whole water. The future acidification of the Mediterranean Sea has not been investigated by regional model yet.</p><p>In this study, we used an eddy-permitting regional model of the Mediterranean Sea (NEMO_MED8) coupled to an oceanic biogeochemical model (PISCES) to evaluate how climate and anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> changes will modify the acidification and its annual cycle from the 1850 period to the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century according to the future IPCC SRES-A2.  Evolution of boundary conditions from Rivers and exchange at the Gibraltar strait are considered. We analyse the relative influence of temperature, salinity, DIC and alkalinity on the mean and the seasonal amplitude of acidity (H+) and aragonite saturation sate (Ω<sub>A</sub>) and their evolution following a changing climate scenario SRES-A2.</p>

Warm temperatures, cool sponges: the effect of increased temperatures on the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp.

Although the cellular and molecular responses to exposure to relatively high temperatures (acute thermal stress or heat shock) have been studied previously, only sparse empirical evidence of how it affects cold-water species is available. As climate change becomes more pronounced in areas such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula, both long-term and occasional acute temperature rises will impact species found there, and it has become crucial to understand the capacity of these species to respond to such thermal stress. Here, we use the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp. to investigate how sessile organisms (particularly Porifera) can adjust to acute short-term heat stress, by exposing this species to 3 and 5 °C for 4 h, corresponding to predicted temperatures under high-end 2080 IPCC-SRES scenarios. Assembling a de novo reference transcriptome (90,188 contigs, >93.7% metazoan BUSCO genes) we have begun to discern the molecular response employed by Isodictya to adjust to heat exposure. Our initial analyses suggest that TGF-β, ubiquitin and hedgehog cascades are involved, alongside other genes. However, the degree and type of response changed little from 3 to 5 °C in the time frame examined, suggesting that even moderate rises in temperature could cause stress at the limits of this organism’s capacity. Given the importance of sponges to Antarctic ecosystems, our findings are vital for discerning the consequences of short-term increases in Antarctic ocean temperature on these and other species.

УТИЦАЈ КЛИМАТСКИХ ПРОМЈЕНА НА ПРОИЗВОДЊУ КУКУРУЗА У СЛОВАЧКОЈ И ЊЕНA ПРОЈЕКЦИЈА ДО 2100. ГОДИНЕ

У раду се тематизује моделовање приноса култура и временских услова под утицајем климатскихпромјена. Aнализира се однос између агроекосистема и климе са фокусом на производњу зрна кукуруза (Zeamays L.). Помоћу модела Daisy симулирани су ефекти климатских промјена, према IPCC SRES A1B сценарију, напотенцијал приноса кукуруза у најпродуктивнијим пољопривредним регионима Словачке − Нитри и Милхостову.Пројекције приноса базиране су на GCM ARPEGE подацима добијеним за периоде 2021−20150. и 2071−2100.године. Резултати симулација потом су упоређени са производњом по хектару у периоду 1961−1990. године.

Warm Temperatures, Cool Sponges: The Effect of Increased Temperatures on the Antarctic Sponge Isodictya sp

Although the cellular and molecular responses to exposure to relatively high temperatures (acute thermal stress or heat shock) have been studied previously, only sparse empirical evidence of how it affects cold-water species is available. As climate change becomes more pronounced in areas such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula, it has become crucial to understand the capacity of these species to respond to thermal stress.Here we use the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp. to investigate how sessile organisms (particularly Porifera) can adjust to acute short-term heat stress, by exposing this species to 3 and 5 °C for 4 hours, corresponding to predicted temperatures under high-end 2080 IPCC-SRES scenarios. Assembling a de novo reference transcriptome (90,188 contigs, >93.7% metazoan BUSCO genes) we have begun to discern the molecular componentry employed by Isodictya to adjust to environmental insult.Our initial analyses suggest that TGF-β, ubiquitin and hedgehog cascades are involved, alongside other genes. However, the degree and type of response changed little from 3 to 5 °C, suggesting that even moderate rises in temperature could cause stress at the limits of this organism’s capacity. Given the importance of sponges to Antarctic ecosystems, our findings are vital for discerning the consequences of increases in Antarctic ocean temperature on these and other species.

Biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to the transient SRES–A2 climate change scenario

The Mediterranean region is a climate change hot-spot. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a significant warming of Mediterranean Sea waters, as well as major changes in its circulation, but the subsequent effects of such changes on marine biogeochemistry are still poorly understood. Our aim is to investigate the changes in nutrient concentrations and biological productivity in response to climate change in the Mediterranean region. To do so, we perform transient simulations with the coupled high resolution model NEMOMED8/PISCES using the pessimistic IPCC SRES-A2 socio-economic scenario and corresponding Atlantic, Black Sea, and coastal nutrient inputs. Our results indicate that nitrate is accumulating in the Mediterranean Sea over the 21st century, whereas no tendency is found for phosphorus. These contrasted variations result from an unbalanced nitrogen-to-phosphorus input from external sources and lead to changes in phytoplankton nutrient limitation factors. In addition, phytoplankton net primary productivity is reduced by 10 % in the 2090s in comparison to the present state, with reductions of up to 50 % in some regions such as the Aegean Sea as a result of nutrient limitation and vertical stratification. We also perform sensitivity tests in order to study separately the effects of climate and biogeochemical input changes on the Mediterranean future state. This article is a first step in the study of transient climate change effects on the Mediterranean biogeochemistry, but calls for coordinated multi-model efforts to explore the various uncertainty sources of such a future projection.

Development of Future Rule Curves for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Conditional Genetic and Tabu Search Algorithms

Optimal rule curves are necessary guidelines in the reservoir operation that have been used to assess performance of any reservoir to satisfy water supply, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, and environmental conservation requirements. This study applied the conditional genetic algorithm (CGA) and the conditional tabu search algorithm (CTSA) technique to connect with the reservoir simulation model in order to search optimal reservoir rule curves. The Ubolrat Reservoir located in the northeast region of Thailand was an illustrative application including historic monthly inflow, future inflow generated by the SWAT hydrological model using 50-year future climate data from the PRECIS regional climate model in case of B2 emission scenario by IPCC SRES, water demand, hydrologic data, and physical reservoir data. The future and synthetic inflow data of reservoirs were used to simulate reservoir system for evaluating water situation. The situations of water shortage and excess water were shown in terms of frequency magnitude and duration. The results have shown that the optimal rule curves from CGA and CTSA connected with the simulation model can mitigate drought and flood situations than the existing rule curves. The optimal future rule curves were more suitable for future situations than the other rule curves.

Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

We examine the past and future changes in the O3 outflow from East Asia using a global 3-D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986–2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000–2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The evaluation of the model results against measurements shows that the GEOS-Chem model captures the seasonal cycles and interannual variations of tropospheric O3 concentrations fairly well with high correlation coefficients of 0.82–0.93 at four ground-based sites and 0.55–0.88 at two ozonesonde sites where observations are available. The increasing trends in surface-layer O3 concentrations in East Asia over the past 2 decades are captured by the model, although the modeled O3 trends have low biases. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied from 1986–2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a statistically insignificant decadal trend; however, they showed large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal values of 4–9 % for the absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) and an annual APDM value of 3.3 %. The sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by variations in the meteorological conditions. The variations in meteorological parameters drove the IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes by altering the O3 concentrations over East Asia and by altering the zonal winds; the latter was identified to be the key factor, since the O3 outflow was highly correlated with zonal winds from 1986–2006. The simulations of the 2000–2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0, 7.9, and 12.2 % owing to climate change alone, emissions change alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. Therefore, climate change will aggravate the effects of the increases in anthropogenic emissions on future changes in the Asian O3 outflow. Future climate change is predicted to greatly increase the Asian O3 outflow in the spring and summer seasons as a result of the projected increases in zonal winds. The findings from the present study help us to understand the variations in tropospheric O3 in the downwind regions of East Asia on different timescales and have important implications for long-term air quality planning in the regions downwind of China, such as Japan and the US.

Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000–2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000–2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.