scholarly journals Direct Statistical Modeling of Spread of Epidemic Based On a Stage-Dependent Stochastic Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-200
Author(s):  
K. Loginov ◽  
N. Pertsev
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Statistical Modeling ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Parametric Description ◽  
Dependent Model ◽  
Time Of Admission

A stochastic stage-dependent model of spread of an epidemic in a certain region is presented. The model is written in the form of a continuous-discrete random process that takes into account the passage of individuals through various stages of an infectious disease. Within the framework of the model, the population of the region is represented in the form of cohorts of individuals, structured according to immunological, clinical, epidemiological and demographic criteria. All cohorts make up two blocks. Individuals belonging to the cohorts of the first block are considered indistinguishable within a fixed cohort and have the same type of parametric description. Individuals belonging to the cohorts of the second block differ from each other by the time of admission to a particular cohort and by the time of stay in this cohort. An algorithm for statistical modeling of the dynamics of cohorts of individuals based on the Monte Carlo method is developed. A numerical study of the dynamics of cohorts of individuals was conducted for sets of parameters reflecting different variants of transmission of infection between individuals.

scholarly journals Stochastic Modeling of Compartmental Systems with Pipes

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.K. Loginov ◽  
N.V. Pertsev ◽  
V.A. Topchii
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Graph Theory ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Compact Representation ◽  
Compartmental System ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Different Types

An approach to the construction of a stochastic model of population dynamics distributed over a compartmental system with pipes is proposed. Population dynamics is described in terms of a multidimensional random process of birth and death, supplemented by taking into account point distributions reflecting different types of particles. In this model, the belonging of a particle to a certain type is determined by the time of its transition between compartments. The duration of particle transitions through the pipes are not random, but are set as parameters of the environment in which the population develops. Graph theory is used for formalization and compact representation of the model. On the basis of the Monte Carlo method the algorithm of numerical simulation of population dynamics is constructed. The results of computational experiments for a system consisting of five compartments are presented.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

Modeling grain growth by the monte carlo method on isotropic grids

1999 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-72
Author(s):  
M. Yu. Al’es ◽  
A. I. Varnavskii ◽  
S. P. Kopysov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Grain Growth ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method
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