scholarly journals Measuring Market Risk of Commercial Banks Implementing VaR with Historical Simulation Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 79-99
Author(s):  
Minhaz-Ul Haq
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
First Generation ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to picture the impact of the market risk of ten commercial banks located in Bangladesh with the help of a non-parametric model known as the Historical Simulation Approach over the course of eight years. These banks' daily stock prices were used as inputs and analyzed in Microsoft Excel by means of Percentile and LN function. The study revealed market risk exposure as third, second-and first-generation banks from the least to the highest. It also pointed out the ups and downs of these banks' share prices in the selected period. Further analysis showed the portfolio VaR estimation for different time intervals. JEL classification numbers: G32. Keywords: Value-at-risk, Historical Simulation, Market Risk, Confidence Interval.

scholarly journals Impacto dos Ratings de crédito nas ações de empresas de capital aberto no Brasil

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 573-602
Author(s):  
Rafaela Augusta Cunha Silveira ◽  
Renata Turola Takamatsu ◽  
Bruna Camargos Avelino
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
New Information ◽  
Agency Issues ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact

Resumo O rating de crédito expressa uma opinião, por intermédio de escalas, sobre a qualidade do crédito de empresas, utilizado-a como medida de avaliação de risco no mercado. Agências de classificação de risco de crédito, como a Moody’s, divulgam os ratings que atribuem às empresas. Primeiramente, essas agências emitem o new rating, que representa o primeiro rating da companhia, e, posteriormente, essa emissão pode apresentar variações, denominadas upgrades e downgrades, relativas a boas e más notícias, respectivamente. Além disso, os ratings podem ser colocados em uma Watchlist quando, em breve, pode haver uma mudança do rating para downgrade ou para upgrade. O objetivo com este estudo consistiu, diante do que foi tratado, em abordar o impacto do rating de crédito sobre os preços das ações de empresas listadas na bolsa de valores brasileira. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, foi analisada uma amostra de 44 empresas comercializadas na BM&FBovespa e 65 ratings nacionais de longo prazo emitidos pela Moody’s entre 2000 e 2015. Utilizou-se a metodologia de estudo de eventos, com os retornos normais calculados pelo modelo de retornos ajustados ao risco e ao mercado, e o Teste-F e o Teste-T para verificar a significância dos resultados. As análises finais evidenciaram que os preços das ações não são afetados de forma significativa pelas divulgações dos new ratings, downgrades, upgrades, on watch – possible downgrades e on watch – possible upgrades em nenhuma janela do evento, indicando que os ratings, para a amostra analisada, não trazem novas informações ao mercado.Palavras-chave: Ações. Rating. Estudo de eventos. Retornos anormais. Abstract Credit ratings are used as a mean to investors get new information on the companies by reducing the information asymmetry in the market. Thus, the rating is an important mean of business information with investors, enabling share prices relating to companies react to it. Branches of credit rating as Moody's, disclose the ratings they assign to companies. First, the agency issues the new rating, which represents the company's first rating, then this issue may vary, upgrades and downgrades calls relating to good and bad news respectively. In addition, the ratings could be placed in a Watchlist when, soon there may be a change to the rating downgrade or upgrade. The purpose of this study was to discuss the impact that the credit rating has on stock prices of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange. For a sample of 44 companies traded on BM&FBovespa and 65 long-term national ratings issued by Moody's between 2000 and 2015, we used the event study methodology, with normal returns calculated by the model of returns adjusted for risk and market the F-Test and T-Test to test the significance of the results. The final analysis showed that stock prices are not significantly affected by the disclosures of new ratings, downgrades, upgrades, on watch – possible downgrades and on watch – possible upgrades in any event window, indicating that the ratings do not bring new information to the market.Keywords: Stocks. Rating. Event studies. Abnormal returns.

scholarly journals The effects of dividend policy to stock prices of listed companies in Vietnam stock market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thị Lam Hồ ◽  
Thùy Phương Trâm Hồ
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Corporate Value ◽  
Business Managers ◽  
Dividend Payment ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Finance Management ◽  
The Impact

Dividend policy is one of the most important policies in corporate finance management. Understanding the impact of dividend policy on the distribution of profits, corporate value and thus on the stock price is important for business managers to make policies and for investors to make investment decisions. This study is conducted to evaluate the impact of dividend policy on share prices for companies listed on Vietnam’s stock market in the period from 2010 to 2018, based on the availability of continuous dividend payment data. Using the FGLS method with panel data of 100 companies listed on the HoSE and HNX, we find evidence of the impact of dividend policy on stock prices, supporting supports the bird in the hand and the signal detection theories. The findings of this study help to suggest a few recommendations for business managers and investors.

scholarly journals EVALUATING MEASURES OF MARKET RISK IN CIRCUMSTANCES OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM FIVE COUNTRIES

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 75-81
Author(s):  
Ivica Terzić ◽  
Marko Milojević
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Independence Properties ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
Metrics Model

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate performance of value-at-risk (VaR) produced by two risk models: historical simulation and Risk Metrics. We perform three backtest: unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage. We present results on both VaR 1% and VaR 5% on a one-day horizon for the following indices: S&P 500, DAX, SAX, PX and Belex 15. Our results show that Historical simulation 500 days rolling window approach satisfies unconditional coverage for all tested indices, while Risk Metrics has many rejection cases. On the other hand Risk Metrics model satisfies independence backtest for three indices, while Historical simulation has rejected more times. Based on our strong criteria to accept accuracy of VaR models only if both unconditional coverage and independence properties are satisfied, results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR models underestimate the true level of market risk exposure.

scholarly journals The Impact of BASEL Accords on the Management of Vietnamese Commercial Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Hai Long Pham ◽  
Kevin James Daly
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Basel Accord ◽  
The Impact

This paper is an attempt to empirically examine the impact of Basel Accord regulatory guidelines on the risk-based capital adequacy regulation and bank risk management of Vietnamese commercial banks. Our research aims to assess how Vietnamese commercial banks manage their capital ratio and bank risk under the latest Basel Accord capital adequacy ratio requirements. Building on previous studies, this research uses a simultaneous equation modeling (SiEM) with three-stage least squares regression (3SLS) to analyze the endogenous relationship between risk-based capital adequacy standards and bank risk management. A year dummy variable (dy2013) is included in the model to take account of changes in the regulation of the Vietnamese banking system. Furthermore, we add a value-at-risk variable developed by as an independent variable into equations of the empirical models. The results reveal a significant impact of Basel capital adequacy regulatory pressure on the risk-based capital adequacy standards and bank risk management of Vietnamese commercial banks. Moreover, banks under the latest Basel capital adequacy regulations are induced to reduce risks and increase banks’ financial performance.

scholarly journals The Impact of Social Responsibility Disclosure in Reducing the Risk in Jordanian Commercial Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Yousef Shahwan ◽  
Oways Abdel-hamid
Keyword(s):  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
The Social ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Simple Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Simple Regression

This study investigates the impact of disclosure of social responsibility in reducing risks in Jordanian commercial banks. To realize the goal of this study, the researcher followed the descriptive-analytical method. The data of the study sample was gathered from the financial reports of the listed banks on the Amman Financial Market that pertain to stock prices and market return in the period 2014-2018. The study used simple regression analysis to examine the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Among the most prominent findings of the study, there is an impact of the social responsibility disclosure in reducing risks, as well as an effect of the dimensions of social responsibility: the environment, customers and employees in reducing risks.

The Stock Market Reaction to Board Changes: The South African Experience

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-294
Author(s):  
Narendra Bhana
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Executive Director ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
African Experience ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of board changes on the share prices of the companies listed on the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) during the period 2004–2008. Four types of board changes are investigated: new appointments, resignation, retirement and joint appointments. Market participants consider a change in the composition of a company’s board as having information content and produce statistically significant change in the share prices of the company concerned. In particular, the informational effects of new appointments are perceived differently by the market from resignations from the company board. The results also provide evidence that market reacts more favourably to the appointment of an executive director in comparison to that of a non-executive director board appointment. JEL classification: C58, D22, E44, G10, L22

scholarly journals Do Company Related Newspaper Articles Have an Impact on the Share Prices? The Case of the German Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Jyoti Gupta ◽  
Benjamin Graubner
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Data Set ◽  
German Market ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Thomson Reuters ◽  
New Information ◽  
Java Program ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Newspaper Articles

The paper looks at the impact of information on stock prices within the context of the German Market. Using data set from the Thomson Reuters, a new platform using a self-written Java Program, between the time period of 27 August and 29 September 2013, we analysed the impact of information on stock prices in the German Market. We developed an Information Based Return Model (IBRM) to analyse how information drive stock prices. We counted certain words within newspaper articles to understand their meaning. We analyse the impact of those word-clusters on different trading intervals. Our Information Based return Model shows that stock prices anticipate news from the non-trading time within the first minute of trading. We also analysed the time drifts between news release and personal reception. Our results show that the German Market anticipates new information as effectively as the US Market. 

Can microblogging information disclosure reduce stock price synchronicity? Evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghua Zhou ◽  
Yujie Zhao ◽  
Philip T Lin ◽  
Bin Li ◽  
Adrian (Waikong) Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price Synchronicity ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Impact

We study the relationship between stock price synchronicity and information disclosure of firms listed in the Chinese stock market, using hand-collected data on firms’ official microblogging content in Sina Weibo, a popular microblogging service in China. We find that after controlling for the impact of traditional media, the number of Weibo tweets is related negatively to stock price synchronicity, indicating that stock prices incorporate firm-specific information disclosed in the firm’s official Weibo. Number of microblogging fans can strengthen this negative relationship. Our result is robust to alternative measures of stock price synchronicity, microblogging information disclosure, and to endogeneity issues. JEL Classification: G14, G15

scholarly journals Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Earning Per Share (EPS) Terhadap Harga Saham di Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi pada Indeks Saham Syariah (ISSI)

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
Chairani Chairani ◽  
Gatot B Setiawan ◽  
Rachma Zannati
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Fundamental Factor ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
The Impact

Purpose-. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of inflation and earnings per share (EPS) on the share prices of the consumer goods sector. Methods- Data are collected from the financial statements in the Consumer Goods Industry Sector, namely 18 companies registered at ISSI. With the period 2014-2018 using a purposive sampling technique. Findings- The analysis results show that inflation has not been proven to have a significant effect on stock prices, while EPS has a positive and significant effect. The implication of this finding is that the fundamental factor information of EPS ratios in financial statements can be useful information to predict sharia stock prices

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