Underestimating risk leading to the collapse of a market leader in tourism

The topic of this paper, underestimating risk leading to the collapse of the market leader in tourism, is demonstrated on the example of the British travel agency Thomas Cook, which at one time was one of the oldest and largest travel agencies in the world. The aim of this paper is to analyze the development of the stock prices of Thomas Cook from May 13, 2018 to May 19, 2019 and the factors that had an impact on the share price of this company in the monitored period. The base source of data are the share prices of the travel agency Thomas Cook in the specified period from May 13, 2018 to May 19, 2019 published by MarketWatch. A statistical description of time series is used, a moving average trend line is displayed, and a cause-and-effect analysis evaluating the impact of the published information on the value of Thomas Cook’s stocks is carried out. The general lesson for companies resulting from this contribution is that every negative event, announcement or piece of information has a negative impact on the value of a company’s shares and a collapse could happen even to the leader of a given industry. The collapse of Thomas Cook provides lessons for companies doing business in tourism, so that in the event of a planned merger, a suitable company is selected, the company’s funds are under control and development trends in the field are monitored.

Machine Learning Approaches in Stock Price Prediction: A Systematic Review

Prediction of stock prices is one of the most researched topics and gathers interest from academia and the industry alike. With the emergence of Artificial Intelligence, various algorithms have been employed in order to predict the equity market movement. The combined application of statistics and machine learning algorithms have been designed either for predicting the opening price of the stock the very next day or understanding the long term market in the future. This paper explores the different techniques that are used in the prediction of share prices from traditional machine learning and deep learning methods to neural networks and graph-based approaches. It draws a detailed analysis of the techniques employed in predicting the stock prices as well as explores the challenges entailed along with the future scope of work in the domain.

The effect of essential information and disposition effect on shifting decision investment

The current pandemic era has given uncertainty to the country's economic growth and resulted in many countries experiencing a drastic decline in share prices. This condition impacts investors' perceptions of the funds that have invested in the stock market. This study investigates the effect of essential information and disposition effect on shifting decision investment with the character investor's moderation as the moderator variable. A survey was conducted on 252 investors who have invested in the Indonesian stock exchange. The Data processing used the partial least square (PLS) technique. This study indicates that essential information for investors in the pandemic era can increase the disposition effect in deciding beneficial share ownership. The essential information obtained by investors in the covid era regarding stock market movements and its internal performance in the stock market list can increase investor shifting decisions. The disposition effect can have a significant effect on shifting decision investors. Essential information related to stock price movements and its internal performance affects investors' courage to take risks and provide optimism for shifting decisions. Then the investor type does not affect the disposition effect on shifting decisions. This study contributes to the theory of financial behavior in decision making by considering psychological factors when uncertainty exists in the stock market.

Evaluasi Kinerja Perusahaan Minyak Kelapa Sawit PT. Astra Argo Lestari Tbk. (AALI) dan PT. PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP)

The movement of share prices in palm oil plantation companies is very interesting to review as an object of research. This is caused by the fluctuation of supply and demand which causes prices to soar high or fall within a period of approximately 60% in less than 2 years. This research will discuss the performance of oil palm companies using three analytical approaches such as fundamental, technical and internal and external facts that can affect the company's performance in making decisions and financial statements. This study aims to evaluate the performance of LSIP and AALI shares since 2017- Semester 1 2019 and provide consideration for potential investors before deciding to buy LSIP or AALI shares. The technique used is purposive sampling with a descriptive qualitative method approach. The results of this study are the two oil palm plantation shares are still experiencing pressure due to declining market demand and the eroded world CPO prices. This will have an impact on financial statements, especially on profitability ratios. The author recommends buying AALI stock compared to LSIP for a long period of time.

Russia invests in oil as though net zero is illusion

Significance Although Russia has itself adopted net-zero targets, current policy is to use the transition period by ramping up production to monetise reserves of oil. Efforts to reduce the industry's carbon footprint do not detract from these plans. Impacts Any delay in oil output recovery will weigh on Russian economic growth in 2022. The Russian government will continue subsidising refinery modernisation. Russian oil majors' high dividend yields and historically elevated share prices will reassure shareholders.

VALUASI BISNIS PERUSAHAAN PT JAMINAN PEMBIAYAAN ASKRINDO SYARIAH DALAM RANGKA IPO DI TAHUN 2022

In order to absorb the potential of the sharia guarantee business in the future which will grow rapidly, PT Jaminan Pembiayaan Askrindo Syariah with the brand name "Askrindo Syariah" will carry out corporate actions, one of which is an initial public offering (IPO) in 2022. Askrindo Syariah's performance shows an increase in 5 years. However, Askrindo Syariah's business profile, which is mostly high-risk products, shows that the company's performance is not optimal even though it has increased. Accordingly, Askrindo Syariah needs to set a strategy in preparation for the IPO. The purpose of this study was to determine the business valuation of the company's strategy for Askrindo Syariah related to the initial public offering (IPO) plan in 2022. The results of the study show that the fair value range of share prices related to Askrindo Syariah's decision to carry out an IPO in 2022, based on the calculation of free cash flow to equity, the value of the company in 2022 is IDR 2,111,814 per share, while based on the relative valuation the book value is amounting to Rp 2,331,168,- per share. The results of this study can also determine the business valuation in 2025, the value of the company based on calculations using the FCFE method is Rp.2,929,706, - while based on the book value method is Rp.3,383,228,-. To maintain the company's value as projected, Askrindo Syariah needs to implement a company strategy to reach good underwritting quality product

Price Reversals After Extreme Price Shocks: Impact of Earnings Information With Time Series Evidence From Emerging Market

The purpose of the article is to analyze the relevance of earnings fundamentals in predicting extreme price reversals of an emerging stock market. We collect monthly price data on six sector indices from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) of India for the period 2004–2019. The research decomposes industry stock returns into Potential Maximum Gains (PMG) and Potential Maximum Losses (PML) with price extremes at first and then tests price reversal behavior using Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The study finds symmetry between PMG and PML in the banking, realty, and oil sectors, while the asymmetric reversal behavior is noted in the automobiles and capital goods industries. The presence of industry fundamentals in the models estimating the reversal behavior of share prices enhances their predictive power, which suggests the significance of value strategies in making gains from extreme price variations. The price reversal behavior is sector specific and found inconsistent in emerging market. Hence, the investors cannot overlook the relevance of the industry characteristics and earnings fundamentals while predicting the stock price behavior in emerging markets.

Application of discounted cash flow model valuation: The case of Excide industries

Theoretical and practical features of the widely used discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation approach are examined in depth in this paper. This research evaluates Exide Industries by using the DCF Valuation technique. It is widely accepted that the discounted cash flow approach is an effective tool for analyzing the situation of an organization even in the most complicated circumstances. The DCF approach, on the other hand, is prone to huge assumption bias, and even little modifications in an analysis' underlying assumptions may substantially affect the valuation findings. As a result, of the sensitivity analysis, we discovered bullish, base, and worst-case scenarios with target share prices of Rs. 253.25, Rs. 171.37, and Rs.133.25, respectively, by adjusting growth and WACC (Weighted-Average Cost of Capital) values.

Impact of Right Share Issue on Share Price of Commercial Banks in Nepal

This study has examined the effect of issue of right share on share price movement in the banking sector using share price and price relative as the predictors of share price movement. Banking sub-index and index relative of different periods were used for analysis. Five different periods of time were selected to observe the share price movement considering the announcement date as the reference point of time. Based on the secondary sources of data, a correctional analysis was administered to examine whether the share price and price relative (banking index) has any relationship with the share price change in case of Nepalese commercial banks. Coefficient of determination and probable error were used to find how much percentage of the variation in the share price could be explained by the occurrence of right share issue and likewise, whether or not the relationship was significant. The results reveal that right share announcements have the signaling effect on share price movement. The share prices and banking indices of selected banks have decreased after the announcement of right share. The results suggest that the information irregularity behavior tempts a negative change in share price after the announcement of rights share. The implication of the results is that investors can forestall the nature of change in share price after rights issue announcement and develop strategic plans to expand the trading activity. Keywords: NCC Bank., Right announcement, Right share issue, Price relative, Index relative.