Assessment of various scenarios for the development of mineral deposits in the region (as exemplified by the Republic of Tuva)

It is shown that Tuva has a sufficiently rich mineral and raw material diversity and the potential for their development. Nevertheless, the development of the republic is hindered by the existence of transport and infrastructure restrictions, to eliminate which, first of all, it is necessary to build a railway along the Kyzyl-Kuragino highway. On the other hand, given the border area of the territory that adjoins western Mongolia, there is a possibility of implementing various scenarios for the construction of railway tracks. The calculations performed to evaluate scenarios for the development of mineral resources of the republic using methods of intersectoral assessment shows that when implementing a pessimistic option for the development of the potential of mineral resources of Tuva (in which the construction of the railway to Tuva is frozen and only deposits of non-ferrous metals and gold are developed), the gross regional product of the republic will grow to 164 billion rubles, which will be 45% of the growth of this indicator in relation to the GRP of 2018. With the implementation of the optimistic option I, (in which it is planned to build a railway along the Kuragino-Kyzyl highway, coal deposits, non-ferrous metals, gold are being developed), the GRP of the republic will grow up to 351 billion rubles. In addition, calculations have been made for the construction of railways that would connect Tuva with Mongolia and China.

Climatic Change as a Driver of Economic Development: an Example from Angara–Yenisey Siberia

Climate change and its impact on economic development is an important, but still understudied issue. This paper is aimed to fill in this gap in relation to the Angara–Yenisey macroeconomic region. It contributes to the literature in several dimensions. First, an overview of research on the climate impact on various sectors of the Russian economy is given. Second, we showed the main trends and factors in the dynamics of economic development in Russia over the past 20 years. And at last, the comparison of the average annual temperature and the gross regional product growth rates was conducted for the four regions of the Angara–Yenisey Siberia. It was concluded that there is no sufficient evidence that regional economies are significantly dependent on temperature fluctuations. Nevertheless, there is still space for further research.

Scenario modelling of the impact of the dynamics of public debt on the gross regional product of Russian regions

The subject of this research is public debt and its impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP) of Russian regions. The aim of the paper is to study and scenario forecast the dynamics of changes in the internal public debt of Russian regions and model its impact on the gross regional product. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that most regions in Russia are forced to increase their internal public debt to cover the budget deficit and attract additional resources to solve important problems of socio-economic development and implement strategic projects and programs. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the level of GRP of different groups of regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt using ARIMA modelling methods and panel regression analysis. The authors apply the methods of panel regression analysis and ARIMA modelling. The authors theoretically substantiated that public debt has a different effect on the GRP of Russian regions, grouped the regions according to the identified trends in the dynamics of public debt (the first group — regions with the dynamics of debt reduction over the period from 2005 to 2019, the second group — with the all-Russian trend of debt reduction since 2017, and the third group — with the dynamics of increasing debt over the period under review); developed a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the GRP level of the Russian regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt; carried out ARIMA forecasting of the dynamics of the public debt of different groups of regions and built regression models of the influence of the dynamics of the public debt on the GRP of Russian regions within the selected groups; formed forecast scenarios for changes of the GRP level of regions, taking into account the identified dynamics of transformation of their internal public debt. Conclusions: public debt has a negative impact on the dynamics of the GRP of Moscow and the Moscow region and a positive effect on the dynamics of the GRP of the regions of the second and third groups. The findings of the study may be used by the federal and regional executive authorities to find ways to reduce public debt and increase the level of socio-economic development of territories.

Implementation of National Projects of the “Second Wave” in the Southern Regions of Russia Within Reference Points “Competitiveness, Sustainability, Security, Balance”: Economic and Political Analysis

Introduction. The study is devoted to the results of the implementation of regional projects by the federal entities of the Southern Federal District in 2019 within the reference points of competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance. Its peculiarity consists in the analysis of the interrelations between the achieved state of competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance, the level of socio-economic development in a particular region, the quality of the implementation of regional projects in the context of the specifics of the regional management system, the existing relations between authorities, economic entities, civil society institutions. At the same time, along with the quality of life, it is important to achieve political stability and security. Methodology and methods. The research methodology is based on the systemic paradigm of the relationship between the instruments of state regulation of regional development and the results of regional development within the reference points of competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance of regions, for which a database on the regional implementation of national projects was formed. In order to obtain quantitative characteristics, an integral scoring method of ranking with a correlation and regression analysis was applied. Analysis. The research showed that the higher the indicators of competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance, the better the quality of regional projects’ implementation. In turn, the reference points: competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance are higher in the regions with high values of gross regional product in general and per capita, as well as these federal entities have higher values of the achieved standard of living. Results. The correlation between efficiency level of territorial economic systems, assessed on the basis of indicators of competitiveness, sustainability, security, balance and the quality of the results of national projects’ implementation was studied, which made it possible to determine that the higher the level of regional development, the better national projects are realized. The idea is justified that the existing form of regional projects’ implementation becomes a factor not smoothing, but strengthening the territorial differentiation, since regions with a better level of development and large gross regional product values due to regional projects receive an additional stimulus for further changes. The conclusion about the limited character of the approach that connects the issues of territories mainly with the lack of financial resources is made. Significant role of the institutional factor of regional development, especially risk-oriented management, in the implementation of national projects is shown.

TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORKS AS A BASE FOR BRIDGING THE DIGITAL DIVIDE BETWEEN RUSSIAN FEDERATION REGIONS

Статья посвящена анализу возможностей сетей связи для сокращения цифрового разрыва между регионами Российской Федерации. Основным результатом статьи является установление взаимосвязи валового регионального продукта и доли занятых в сфере информатизации и связи в общем числе занятых во всех отраслях. Результаты статьи могут быть использованы заинтересованными министерствами и ведомствами при реализации программы цифровой экономики, научными и проектными организациями при планировании и проектировании сетей связи, а также университетами в учебном процессе. The article is devoted to the analysis of the capabilities of telecommunication networks with ultralow latency to reduce the digital divide between the regions of the Russian Federation. The main result of the article is to establish the relationship between the gross regional product and the share of people employed in the field of informatization and communications in the total number of people employed in all industries. The results of the article can be used by interested ministries and departments in the implementation of the digital economy program, scientific and design organizations in the planning and design of communication networks, as well as by universities in the educational process.

Gross regional product: study of influencers

The relevance of the research topic is determined by special attention to issues of regional development in the state policy of the Republic of Belarus, the quality of life of 78.6% of the country's population depends on the level of development of the regions under study. The problem of regional development is the growing imbalances in development between the regions of the country and, as a result, undesirable interregional migration flows of the population and a reduction in the demographic potential of a number of territories, as well as the emergence of signs of depression in a number of areas. The analysis of recent publications makes it possible to verify an ongoing interest in the issue, but the drawback of most studies is the disclosure of the issue within one particular region, or the study of the growth of grp due to conventional factors. According to the authors, until the end of the unexplored, the dependence of the gross regional product on indirect, implicit factors remains. Particular attention is drawn to the author's indicators and their place in the GRP growth model. The aim of the study is to establish the influence of unconditional and indirect factors on the magnitude and dynamics of gross regional product, which will provide an opportunity to formalize the dependence of grp on these factors and subsequently apply the built model in practice. The study methods used in the work are comparison, grouping, correlation-regression analysis, econometric modeling, and a systemic approach. Results of work. The present study considers a set of indicators for six regions of the republic of belarus for the period from 2013 to 2019. Using econometric methods of analysis, the authors built a regression model of the dependence of grp per capita on four exogenous variables, analyzed the degree of influence of these variables and the possibility of impact on them by the state. The area of application of the study results is state policy aimed at the sustainable growth of the economies of the regions. Conclusions. In the constructed model of four exogenous variables, the unemployment rate and the rate of life of the population are most significant. However, according to the authors, in order to achieve the desired level of gross regional product, it is necessary to have a comprehensive impact on all variable models, among which, in descending order of importance, the level of unemployment, the rate of life of the population, the amount of industrial production per person employed in the economy, investment in fixed assets.

Тhe impact of regional investment interaction on economic growth potential of the Russian Federation

The purpose of the monography is to elaborate the concept of the development of inter-regional investment cooperation by identifying the trends and features of its impact on the economic growth potential of the macro-region. The monography consists of the introduction, three chapters, conclusion and applications, as well as a list of references. The first chapter substantiates theoretical approaches to the essence, conditions and factors of regional development and the content of interregional investment cooperation in the current socio-economic conditions, analyzes the features of institutional design and the mechanisms for regulating regional cooperation for economic growth and development purposes, taking into account the Russian and foreign experience on the example of the European Union. The second chapter, basing on the economic analysis, identifies the trends in the development of the regions of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation in terms of emerging macro-regions. A model has been proposed to assess the extent of the region’s economy’s involvement in inter-regional relations, which would allow to determine the dependence of variables such as interregional exchange, investment and gross regional product. Using mathematical modeling tools, the impact of these factors on the growth of the gross regional product of the Central Federal District of Russia, as well as its two regions — Moscow and Belgorod region — was evaluated. The third chapter identifies the prospects for the development of interregional investment cooperation in the Central Black Earth macro-region of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. The concept of developing inter-regional investment cooperation in the macro-region within the framework of the creation of a network of territories ahead of socioeconomic development (PSEDA) has been developed. The mechanism of inter-regional investment cooperation in the framework of the creation and development of the territories ahead of socio-economic development (PSEDA) has been adapted in order to form the points of economic growth in the macro-region. The main text of the monography is laid out on 234 pages and is illustrated with 21 drawings and 40 tables. The monography contains 4 applications. The references list includes 144 units.

Smart specialization for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The article deals with the development of small and medium-sized businesses, taking into account the concept of smart specialization. The article presents a combination of data from the “quad spiral”, aimed at the formation and intensification of network interactions of business-state-science-civil society components for the creation of evolutionary, “smart”, sustainable entrepreneurship, growth of the economy of regions and the country as a whole. The analysis and classification of regions by the level of production of the gross regional product is carried out, the set of specialization is defined. The monitoring of targets for achieving key indicators of innovative development of the country was carried out. The sequence of work with smart specialization is presented. Conclusions are drawn on the further development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Long-Term Trends in Regional Labor Markets in Russia

Introduction. Unemployment is one of the fundamental issues of macroeconomics and has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of regions and the country as a whole. Based on the results of the conducted study, the article identifies the correlation between unemployment and volumes of output in the regions of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods. The paper used open statistical data for 79 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The methods of comparative, economic, and statistical analysis were used to identify the trends in the development of regional labor markets. The trends of the labor market, including the correlation between the gross regional product and the unemployment rate, were studied based on the economic and statistical models and the statistical data for Russian regions for 1997–2017. Results. The study has revealed the increasing discrepancy between the aggregates of the labor market – the registered unemployment rate and the unemployment rate according to the conducted sample surveys of the population. The inertia of the indicator of “the registered unemployment rate”, associated with the institutional constraints of the labor market, has been shown. The slow response of the gross regional product to the change in the aggregates of unemployment has been revealed. No clear correlation has been observed between volumes of output and changes in the unemployment rate according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization based on the data from the sample labor force surveys. Discussion and Conclusion. The increasing divergence of aggregates of unemployment reveals a distortion of the formal institutional environment of the labor market and is due to the financial constraints of public authorities. Further research will focus on the assessment of the impact of the sectoral structure of the economy on the closeness of the correlation between changes in the gross regional product and the aggregates of the labor market. Understanding the trends in the development of the labor market is necessary for conducting a balanced policy of managing its transformation and the socio-economic development of the regions and the country as a whole.

POPULATION INCOME DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT

В статье рассматриваются особенности взаимосвязи, инертность и изменчивость динамики доходов населения и показателей валового регионального продукта в субъектах Северо-Кавказского федерального округа. В условиях стагнации российской экономики в последние годы проблема роста валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в депрессивных регионах Северного Кавказа приобретает особую значимость. Проведенный авторами корреляционный анализ доходов населения и валового регионального продукта за 2000-2018 гг. методом Пирсона выявил, что, в отличие от российских регионов в целом с их достаточно сильной связью между валовым региональным продуктом и доходами населения, в регионах Северного Кавказа наблюдалось очень значительное расхождение в коэффициентах корреляции. В частности, в Северной Осетии в течение 2011-2015 гг. экономический рост и доходы населения находились в состоянии слабой зависимости, а уже в 2015-2018 гг. эта связка стала почти идеальной, когда коэффициент корреляции достиг 0,99. Резкие скачки в тесноте связей ВРП и доходов населения имели место в Дагестане, Карачаево-Черкессии, в то время как относительно стабильная динамика коэффициентов корреляции ВРП с доходами была характерна для Ингушетии. В Кабардино-Балкарии и Ставропольском крае, где были отмечены низкие и отрицательные значения коэффициентов корреляции, в динамике доходов населения и экономическим ростом проявилась либо слабая связь, либо обратная связь, когда увеличение одной переменной приводит к уменьшению другой. В целом, разнонаправленность динамики показателей валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в регионах СКФО отражает неэффективность экономической политики и необходимость более дифференцированного подхода к отдельным территориям макрорегиона. The article discusses the features of the relationship, inertia and variability of the dynamics of household income and gross regional product indicators in the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District. In the context of the stagnation of the Russian economy in recent years, the problem of the growth of GRP and income of the population in the depressed regions of the North Caucasus is of particular importance. The authors' correlation analysis of the population's income and the gross regional product for 2000-2018 according to Pearson method revealed that, in contrast to the Russian regions as a whole with their rather strong relationship between the gross regional product and the population's income, there was a very significant discrepancy in the correlation coefficients in the regions of the North Caucasus. In particular, in North Ossetia, during 2011-2015, economic growth and income of the population were in a state of weakened mutual dependence, and already in 2015-2018, this link became almost perfect, when the correlation coefficient reached 0.99. Sharp changes in the close relationship between GRP and income of the population occurred in Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, while the relatively stable dynamics of the correlation coefficients of GRP with income was characteristic of Ingushetia. In Kabardino-Balkaria and Stavropol Krai, where low and negative values of correlation coefficients were noted, the dynamics of household income and economic growth showed either a weak relationship or an inverse relationship, when an increase in one variable leads to a decrease in the other. In general, the divergence of the dynamics of the gross regional product and income indicators in the regions of the NCFD reflects the inefficiency of economic policy and the need for a more differentiated approach to individual territories of the macroregion.