Ride-Hailing Service Adoption and Local Context in Motorcycle-Based Societies: Case Study in Hanoi, Vietnam

The ride-hailing service (RHS) has emerged as a major form of daily travel in many Southeast Asian cities where motorcycles are extensively used. This study aims to analyze the local context in motorcycle-based societies, which may affect the establishment of travelers’ choice set after the appearance of RHSs. In particular, it empirically compares three types of choice-set structures in the context of urban travel mode choice by estimating standard logit and nested logit models to test six hypotheses on the associations of RHS adoption with its determinants. Revealed preference data of 449 trips from both RHS users and non-RHS users were collected through a face-to-face interview-based questionnaire survey in Hanoi, Vietnam, in December 2020. The results of model estimations revealed: (1) a substitutional effect for two-wheelers but not for four-wheelers, (2) a significant positive influence of car ownership on car RHS adoption but not on motorcycle RHS adoption, (3) significantly high sensitivity to travel time of motorcycle RHS but not of car RHS, (4) a significant negative effect of traffic congestion on car RHS adoption but an insignificant one on motorcycle RHS adoption, and (5) a significant positive association of an individual’s experience in using a smartphone with car RHSs but insignificant association with motorcycle RHSs. Our findings suggest that transportation policies of RHS motorcycles should be different from those of RHS cars because of the heterogeneity in travel behaviors of RHS users between them. They also indicate that the transition from motorcycles to cars as well as the difference in service availability among different types of RHSs should be incorporated into the development of transportation policies in Southeast Asian cities.

What Makes Consumers Purchase Fresh Eggs in Supermarkets: The Effect of Unrealistic Choice Set Matters

Eggs are the crucial component of daily meals for almost everyone in Taiwan, while the multi-attributes of fresh egg products generate the challenges of marketing and promotions in supermarkets. This study analyzes the market segmentation and consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for fresh egg attributes (i.e., color, traceability, animal welfare, brand, and price). In particular, the effect of the unrealistic choice set is considered in this study. The data collection was distributed near markets, schools, and train stations across Taiwan from July to September in 2020. A total of 1115 valid responses were collected, and the Latent Class Model was used. Results show that fresh egg products in supermarkets reveal a strong preference for animal welfare label with the highest WTP, which is about 64.2 NT$ (≈US$ 2.29). Furthermore, traceability label, farm brand, and brown-color egg still exhibit positive WTP of about 33.4 NT$ (≈US$ 1.19), 32.6 NT$ (≈US$ 1.16), and 32.5 NT$ (≈US$ 1.16) in supermarkets, respectively. However, including the unrealistic choice set can potentially alter the final outcomes, and it provides a good example for researchers who may have the same situation. This research helps to know more about the complexity of attributes for fresh egg products in supermarkets, so marketers would be able to adopt the effective marketing strategies for fresh egg products in supermarkets.

The Poliheuristic Theory of Crisis Decision Making and Applied Decision Analysis

Poliheuristic theory addresses the “why” and “how” of decision making. It focuses on how decision makers use heuristics en route to choice by addressing both the process and the choice related to the decision task. More specifically, decision makers use a two-stage process wherein a more complicated choice set is reduced to one that is more manageable through the use of these heuristics, or cognitive shortcuts. In the second stage, decision makers are more likely to employ maximizing and analytical strategies in making a choice. Poliheuristic theory also focuses on the political consequences of decision making, arguing that decision makers will refrain from making politically costly decisions. While poliheuristic theory helps us better understand how decision makers process information and make choices, it does not specifically address how choice sets and decision matrices were created in the first place. Applied decision analysis (ADA) rectifies this shortcoming by focusing on how leaders create particular choice sets and matrices and then how they arrive at a choice. It does so by first identifying the decision maker’s choice set or decision matrix; that is, the alternatives or options available to choose from as well as the criteria or dimensions upon which the options will be evaluated. ADA then focuses on uncovering the decision maker’s decision code through the use of multiple decision models. Combining poliheuristic theory with ADA allows researchers to more fully explain decision making in general and crisis decision making in particular. An application of poliheuristic theory and ADA to decision making pertaining to the Fukushima nuclear disaster reveals that even in this high-stress crisis environment decision makers followed the two-stage process as predicted by poliheuristic theory. More specifically, in the first stage, decision makers simplified the decision task by resorting to cognitive heuristics (i.e., decision making shortcuts) to eliminate politically damaging alternatives such as voluntary evacuation. In the second stage, decision makers conducted a more analytical evaluation of the compulsory evacuation options.

Exploiting context-dependent preferences to protect borrowers

Focusing bias is one of the key contributors to over-borrowing. It describes how people, when making choices, give disproportionate attention and weight to attributes in which their options differ more. In a loan decision, a consumer excessively focuses on the eye-catching difference between getting the loan and not getting it, while ignoring the smaller differences between making and not making repayments. Here, we show a simple trick that nudges the consumer to increase attention on the repayment dimension. In two experimental studies involving one hypothetical loan decision, we demonstrate that the salience of getting the loan can be decreased if one offered plan includes high initial installments. This steeply decreasing installment plan (i.e., with initially high installments that decrease over time) offered alongside the usual flat installments plan (i.e., with equally sized repayments through the whole term) increases consumers’ attention to making repayments, and consequently, they attend less to obtaining the loan. When the choice set includes the steeply decreasing plan, we observe a decreased preference for the flat installment plan and a shift toward not borrowing. Additionally, making repayments on the loan is perceived as a greater burden, and more attention is given to making repayments when the steep plan is present. Policy may combat harmful loan consumption by prescribing the presentation of loan offers such that at least one option includes high initial repayments, which increases attention on making repayments.

The evolution of choice set formation in dwelling and location with rising prices: A decadal panel analysis in the Greater Toronto Area

Home location choice is based on both the characteristics of the dwelling (e.g., size, style, number of bedrooms) and the location (e.g., proximity to work, quality of schools, accessibility). Recent years have seen a steep increase in the price of housing in many major cities. In this research, we examine how these price increases are affecting the types of dwelling and locations considered by households. A large sample of real estate listings from 2006 and 2016 from the Greater Toronto Area is used to develop the empirical models. Two recently developed discrete choice models are used in the study: a nested logit model with latent class feedback (LCF) and a semi-compensatory independent availability logit (SCIAL) model. A method of alternative aggregation is proposed to overcome the computational hurdle that often impedes the estimation of choice set models. We find a significant increase in the probability of larger households considering townhouses and apartments over detached single-family dwellings between 2006 and 2016.

Proposing a Cyclic Model of Tourist Decision Making: A Review and Integration of Behavioral and Choice-Set Models

Tourist decision studies focus on modeling decision-making behaviors, conceptualizing phases in decision making, and influential factors. Incorporating behavioral and choice-set model strategies, the current study proposes a generalizable cyclic model of tourist decision-making processes with a structure of repeatable behavioral stages integrated with relevant consideration sets. A “decision-making threshold” and “information loop limit” are introduced to control how and when the decision-making process starts or ends. The proposed model makes it possible to represent different decision-making styles by capturing the dynamic repetition of behavioral stages and the revision of consideration sets. The integration allows a novel approach for analyzing the formation of final decisions resulting from decision makers’ limited subjective evaluations and for studying decision rules as the combinations of “evaluation rule” and “information loop limit.” Practical implications and measures are provided for tourism practitioners to better understand and influence potential consumers. Future research questions are also suggested.

Attract the best: The attraction effect as an effective strategy to enhance healthy choices

Every day, people make many food decisions without thinking, repeatedly falling for the unhealthy option instead of the healthy option. While making these mindless decisions, people often rely on heuristics. In this paper, we demonstrate that these heuristics can be exploited to nudge consumers towards healthy alternatives. Specifically, we explore how the attraction effect (i.e., adding a decoy to a choice set) can nudge people to choose a healthy snack. The results of our choice experiment indicate that adding a decoy (i.e., a less attractive food alternative) to a self-control situation (i.e., choosing between a healthy and an unhealthy food alternative) can help people maintain self-control and choose the healthy option. This mixed choice set thus nudges people towards the healthy option. Moreover, our results show differential effects of the attraction effect depending on the (un)healthiness of the products in the choice set. Specifically, the attraction effect is prominent when the choice set consists of unhealthy products only (i.e., the unhealthy choice set), but not in the choice set that consists of only healthy products (i.e., healthy choice set). Importantly, our results indicate when the attraction effect can exploit consumers’ heuristics to help them make better, healthier food choices.

Great for constitution writing but an obstacle to democratic consolidation: The ephemeral value of the Hare Quota formula in Tunisia’s parliamentary elections

The Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula promoted consensus-building during Tunisia’s constitution-writing process and in the new democratic regime’s first years but it is now an obstacle to democratic consolidation. HQLR discourages the development of a tractable partisan choice set -- one large enough to afford voters meaningfully distinct options but not so large as to be cognitively overwhelming -- and fosters party fragmentation in parliament, obstructing the formation of workable governing coalitions. One result has been coalitions and national unity governments so heterogeneous as to lack common purpose, frustrating and disillusioning citizens and risking nostalgia for the decisiveness of the previous, authoritarian system. Replacing HQLR with either D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formula would reverse the incentives toward parliamentary fragmentation, foster a more coherent political party landscape, and, if democratic competition is restored following President Kais Said’s auto coup in July 2021, facilitate Tunisia’s democratic consolidation by clarifying partisan accountability in parliament.

All Options Are on the Table? Time Horizons and the Decision-Making Process in Conflict

This study explores how time horizons shape the decision-making process in international conflicts. I posit that leaders assess only a subset of the available policy options. The proposed decision-making model suggests that time horizons serve as a screening mechanism. Only policies that fit the actor's time horizon enter the choice set and can be eventually selected. Thus, variations in actors’ time horizons generate different choice sets in terms of size and composition. These different choice sets affect the identity of the selected policy. Using a two-phase experiment, I demonstrate that short time horizons reduce the choice set size and the type of options that are considered. The selection of the final policy is sensitive to the inherent trade-off in policy implications and to the composition of the choice set. These findings clarify the influence of time horizons on conflict choices within a two-phase decision process. It also explains why, facing international conflicts, political leaders are not likely to place all policy options “on the table.”