Investigating the residential electricity consumption-income nexus in Morocco: a stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology analysis

In a comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-ARDL framework, this research investigates the residential electricity consumption (REC)-income nexus in Morocco for the period 1990 to 2018. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) results show that economic activity and electricity intensity are the leading drivers of Morocco’s REC, followed by population and residential structure. And then, the LMDI analysis was combined with stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) analysis and the bounds testing approach to search for a long-run equilibrium relationship. The empirical results show that REC, economic growth, urbanization, and electricity intensity are cointegrated. The results further show that there exists a U-shaped relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and REC: an increase in per capita GDP reduces REC initially; but, after reaching a turning point (the GDPPC level of 17,145.22 Dh), further increases in per capita GDP increase REC. Regarding urbanization, the results reveal that it has no significant impact on Morocco’s REC. The stability parameters of the short and long-term coefficients of residential electricity demand function are tested. The results of these tests showed a stable pattern. Finally, based on the findings mentioned above, policy implications for guiding the country's development and electricity planning under energy and environmental constraints are given.

Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia

This study examined the effect of public investment on private investment and their relative effects on Ethiopia economic growth. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results revealed that public investment has a crowding-in effect on private investment in the long run which means, public investment stimulates private investment in the long run. However, the study revealed that public investment has a crowding out effect on private investment. In the other word, public investment has no direct impact on economic growth in the long run. However, private investment has a significant positive impact on economic growth in the long run while it is negatively related to economic growth in the short run. This suggests that private investment positively contributes to economic growth more than public investment. In addition, economic growth is positively associated with private investment although it is statistically insignificant in the long run. This implies that it is prudent for policy makers not to cut back on the efficient component of public investment and increase infrastructural public investment to a level that promotes private investment in the long run thereby indirectly fostering economic growth.

Local Stock Market Integration with International Gold and Oil Price

We look for the integration of Bangladesh Stock Market with international gold and oil price using most recent monthly data set from January 2003 to December 2020 (2003m1-2020m12). We employ the bounds-testing approach to cointegration between stock market index (DSEX) and international gold and oil price and eventually find an integration and dynamic significant impact of international gold and oil price on DSEX in the long and short-run. We discuss the important policy implications of the dynamic impact of international gold and oil price on stock market index.

Analyzing the Role of Renewable Energy and Energy Intensity in the Ecological Footprint of the United Arab Emirates

Even though a great number of researchers have explored the determinants of environmental pollution, the majority have used carbon emissions as an indicator while only recent studies have employed the ecological footprint which is a broader and more reliable indicator for the environment. The present study contributes to the literature by exploring for the first time in the literature the role of real output, energy intensity (technology), and renewable energy in the ecological footprint under the STIRPAT framework for a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country—the United Arab Emirates. By applying the novel bounds testing with dynamic simulations on the data from 1992–2017, the findings of this paper reveal that energy intensity and renewable energy have a negative and significant influence on the ecological footprint but real output has a positive and significant impact on it. In other words, the empirical results indicate that a rise in the real income increases environmental pollution while increases in renewable energy and advances in technology mitigate the level of emissions. The findings also suggest that the government should establish new programs, investment opportunities, and incentives in favor of energy intensity-related technology and renewable energy for the sake of environmental sustainability. The outcomes from this research analysis are useful for policymakers, industrial partners, and project designers in the United Arab Emirates.

MODELING TOURISM–ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIP IN AUSTRALIA: DOES ASYMMETRY MATTER?

Prior empirical studies have employed various econometric estimation techniques to study the environmental effect of tourism demand. Prominently, these econometric modeling techniques implicitly assume that the environmental effect of tourism is symmetrical, which could sometimes be problematic. This study, therefore, utilized two econometric estimation techniques, namely, the Pesaran et al. ( 2001 ). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) symmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Shin et al. ( 2014 ). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, pp. 281–314. New York: Springer) nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) estimation technique to disentangle the effect of tourism demand on carbon emissions in Australia. The results from the symmetric ARDL model reveal that tourism demand significantly increases carbon emissions in the long run, indicating that a 1% increase in tourism demand contributes to a 0.155% increase in carbon emissions in the long run. Contrarily, the NARDL model shows that a positive shock (an increase) in tourism demand reduces carbon emissions while a negative shock (a decrease) in tourism demand increases carbon emissions in the long run. From the NARDL estimate, a 1% increase in tourism demand is associated with a 0.220% decline in carbon emissions, while a 1% decrease in tourism demand increases carbon emissions by 0.250%. Therefore, I argue that carbon emissions depend not only on the size of tourism demand but also on the pattern — thus the increase and decline — of tourism demand. The implications of these results for policy are discussed.

ICT Adoption and Stock Market Development in Africa: An Application of the Panel ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure

The nexus between Information Communication Technology (ICT) and stock market development has been predominantly based on studies of the developed markets and high-income economies of the world. The objective of this study was to examine the causal relationship between ICT adoption and stock market development in Africa. The study examined a panel of 11 African stock exchanges for the period 2008–2017 and employed the panel ARDL bounds testing procedure to test for cointegration and examine the causal relationship between ICT adoption and stock market development. The dependent variable employed was the stock market development index (FINDEX), while the independent variable was the ICT adoption index (ICTDEX), and the financial freedom index (FFI) was employed as a control variable. Firstly, the results of the study documented that the variables are cointegrated in the long term. Secondly, the results of the study documented a bi-directional causal relationship (complementarity) between ICT adoption and stock market development. In essence, ICT adoption and stock market development reinforce each other. Thirdly, the study established a causal relationship running from financial freedom to stock market development. This lends credence to the notion that financial market deregulation promotes stock market development. Lastly, a positive causal relationship that ran from financial freedom to stock market development was documented. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in the sense that it is the first study to examine the phenomenon of the ICT–stock market development nexus by employing a panel study. Hitherto, studies were mainly country-specific in nature. The findings of the research imply that policymakers should be more resolute when formulating ICT policies, as ICT adoption can drive stock market development and vice versa for better economic growth. Policymakers should embrace policies that support the deregulation of stock markets as this will lead to the development of the latter.

Impact of Economic Structure on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India

This study aims to evaluate the impact of economic structure on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in India. The present study deviates from the bulk of study in the literature with the incorporation of both aggregated and disaggregated measures of economic development on the environmental degradation function. For the empirical analysis, the study employed the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship during 1971–2014. Further, the direction of the causality is investigated through the Wald test approach. The results revealed that the conventional EKC hypothesis does not hold in India in both aggregated and disaggregated models since economic growth and its component have a U-shaped impact on the environmental quality in India. However, the effect of population on environmental quality is positive but not significant in the aggregated model. Whereas, in the disaggregated model, it is significantly affecting environmental quality. Hence, it is possible to infer that the population of the country increases, the demand for energy consumption increase tremendously, particularly consumption of fossil fuel like coal, oil, and natural gas, and is also evident from the energy structure coefficient from both models. This increase is due to the scarcity of renewable energy for meeting the needs of people. On the contrary, urbanization reduces environmental degradation, which may be due to improved living conditions in terms of efficient infrastructure and energy efficiency in the urban area leading to a negative relation between urbanization and environmental degradation.

Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe

The study seeks to empirically test the hypothesis that public debt has a significant influence on inflation in Zimbabwe, covering the period 1980-2020. The study was motivated by recent trends in public debt and domestic inflation in Zimbabwe, and the need to guide debt-inflation related policy. These latest trends have started to ring alarming bells, which raises questions on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in bringing macroeconomic stability in the country. Applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to cointegration and an error correction mechanism (ECM), expanded by incorporating structural breaks, the study finds evidence in support of positive and significant impact of public debt on inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe, particularly in the long run. Based on the findings, public debt dynamics matter for inflation process in Zimbabwe. That is, fiscal policy can be considered to be an important determinant of the effectiveness of monetary policy in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the government should be mindful of increases in public debt as this was found to be inflationary.

The Causal Nexus Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

The nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth has long been among the most debated issues in macroeconomics. Some studies find a positive link between the two factors, but others find no evidence. This current research fills the gap by analysing the causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia for the period 1970-2018. Indonesia as a developing country is one of the largest recipients of FDI flow; hence the study on the impact of FDI on the economic growth is very much important. This current research employs a contemporary time-series procedure, involving several unit-root tests namely Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), and Lee-Strazicich (LS), an Auto-Regressive-Distributed-Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing method for cointegration, and Granger causality test. The findings provide evidence of long-run and short-run causal direction from GDP to FDI. In contrast, FDI generates only a short-run relationship on GDP. The Granger causality test confirms the finding in ARDL that there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP to FDI.

Keeping An Eye On Environmental Quality in Tanzania as Trade, Industrialization, Income and Urbanization Continue To Grow

By applying the ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) bounds testing method, this study examines the short and long-term dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth (Gross Domestic Product), industrialization, trade and urban population in Tanzania from 1990 to 2020. The study found that economic growth, trade, industrialization, and the urban population all contributed to the increase in environmental degradation (i.e. carbon dioxide emissions). However, we found that financial credit (i.e. domestic credit to the private sector) reduces carbon dioxide emissions, but its effects are not significant. Our findings revealed that economic growth (i.e. income) was responsible for both short and long-term increases in carbon dioxide emissions in Tanzania. Economic growth is harmful to the environmental quality above a threshold value of 6.23%. Our findings suggest that policy makers should monitor and use the threshold levels to manage carbon dioxide emissions and to protect the environmental quality. Further, a strong focus should be placed on formulating environmental policies (i.e. carbon tax policy) as industrialization, urban population, economic growth and trade continue to grow in future, restricting carbon dioxide emissions and safeguarding the environment.