Quantifying the Impact of Traffic on Electric Vehicle Efficiency

While the influence of several factors on battery electric vehicle (BEV) efficiency has been investigated in the past, their impact on traffic is not yet fully understood, especially when driving in a natural environment. This paper investigates the influence of driving in intense traffic conditions while considering the ambient temperature and driving behavior on BEV energy efficiency in a field study. A total of 30 BEV inexperienced drivers test drove a 2017 Volkswagen eGolf on a route with various road types in two different traffic intensity scenarios: During morning commute hours with higher traffic congestion and lower congestion hours throughout the middle of the day. Results support the hypothesis that traffic conditions significantly impact the vehicle’s efficiency, with additional consumption of approximately 4–5% in the high traffic scenario. By creating and comparing driving in traffic to an underlying base case scenario, the additional range potential by avoiding traffic for this particular vehicle can be quantified as up to seven miles. New patterns of BEV efficiencies emerged, which can help stakeholders understand how eco-driving can be strategically improved by selecting trip times and routes that avoid high traffic intensity.

Modeling Biomass Burning Organic Aerosol Atmospheric Evolution and Chemical Aging

The changes in the concentration and composition of biomass-burning organic aerosol (OA) downwind of a major wildfire are simulated using the one-dimensional Lagrangian chemical transport model PMCAMx-Trj. A base case scenario is developed based on realistic fire-plume conditions and a series of sensitivity tests are performed to quantify the effects of different conditions and processes. Temperature, oxidant concentration and dilution rate all affect the evolution of biomass burning OA after its emission. The most important process though is the multi-stage oxidation of both the originally emitted organic vapors (volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds) and those resulting from the evaporation of the OA as it is getting diluted. The emission rates of the intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and their chemical fate have a large impact on the formed secondary OA within the plume. The assumption that these IVOCs undergo only functionalization leads to an overestimation of the produced SOA suggesting that fragmentation is also occurring. Assuming a fragmentation probability of 0.2 resulted in predictions that are more consistent with available observations. Dilution leads to OA evaporation and therefore reduction of the OA levels downwind of the fire. However, the evaporated material can return to the particulate phase later on after it gets oxidized and recondenses. The sensitivity of the OA levels and total mass balance on the dilution rate depends on the modeling assumptions. The high variability of OA mass enhancement observed in past field studies downwind of fires may be partially due to the variability of the dilution rates of the plumes.

Cost-utility analysis of esketamine and electroconvulsive therapy in adults with treatment-resistant depression

Background Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) has long been used for treating individuals with treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Esketamine has recently emerged as a new treatment for TRD due to its rapid antidepressant effects. To further inform the decision regarding choice of treatment, this paper aims to evaluate whether ECT or esketamine is the more cost-effective option. Methods The cost-effectiveness was derived as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) using a Markov model from a societal and life-time perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. Health states included different depression and remission states and death. Data to populate the model was derived from randomised controlled trials and other research. Various sensitivity analyses were carried out to test the robustness of the model. Results The base case scenario shows that ECT is cost-effective compared to esketamine and yields more QALYs at a lower cost. The sensitivity analysis shows that ECT is cost-effective in all scenarios and ECT dominates esketamine in 12 scenarios. Conclusions This study found that, from a cost-effectiveness point of view, ECT should be the first-hand option for individuals with TRD, when other first line treatments have failed. Considering the lack of economic evaluation of ECT and esketamine, this study is of great value to decision makers.

The Electrification of Conventional Industrial Processes: The Use of Mechanical Vapor Compression in an EtOH–Water Distillation Tower

The aim of this study is to analyze the exergetic, environmental, and economic impact of the electrification of a bio-refinery plant, considering the application of Mechanical Vapor Compression (MVC) to a conventional water–ethanol distillation column in the context of bioethanol production. The process was implemented in AspenPlus® and Aspen Exchange Design and Rating (EDR) simulation environments, where a sensitivity analysis was also carried out, considering four scenarios characterized by different compressions’ operative conditions, and including a Coefficient of Performance (CoP) analysis of the proposed solution with MVC. Exergetic and economic analyses were performed, and the relevant impacts on Operative Expenditure (OpEx) and Capital Expenditure (CapEx) were analyzed. Comparing the base case scenario with the proposed solution, a reduction of operative costs of around 63% was achieved. Finally, an environmental analysis was carried out, showing a remarkable reduction in the carbon footprint of the unit, with a carbon dioxide emission reduction of almost 80% for the MVC solution, in line with RED target requirements.

Smoking-related cancer death among men and women in an ageing society (China 2020–2040): a population-based modelling study

BackgroundChina is experiencing a postpeak smoking epidemic with accelerating population ageing. Understanding the impacts of these factors on the future cancer burden has widespread implications.MethodsWe developed predictive models to estimate smoking-related cancer deaths among men and women aged ≥35 years in China during 2020–2040. Data sources for model parameters included the United Nations World Population Prospects, China Death Surveillance Database, national adult tobacco surveys and the largest national survey of smoking and all causes of death to date. The main assumptions included stable sex-specific and age-specific cancer mortality rates and carcinogenic risks of smoking over time.ResultsIn a base-case scenario of continuing trends in current smoking prevalence (men: 57.4%–50.5%; women: 2.6%–2.1% during 2002–2018), the smoking-related cancer mortality rate with population ageing during 2020–2040 would rise by 44.0% (from 337.2/100 000 to 485.6/100 000) among men and 52.8% (from 157.3/100 000 to 240.4/100 000) among women; over 20 years, there would be 8.6 million excess deaths (0.5 million more considering former smoking), and a total of 117.3 million smoking-attributable years of life lost (110.3 million (94.0%) in men; 54.1 million (46.1%) in working-age (35–64 years) adults). An inflection point may occur in 2030 if smoking prevalence were reduced to 20% (Healthy China 2030 goal), and 1.4 million deaths would be averted relative to the base-case scenario if the trend were maintained through 2040.ConclusionsCoordinated efforts are urgently needed to curtail a rising tide of cancer deaths in China, with intensified tobacco control being key.

Improving vaccination coverage and offering vaccine to all school-age children will allow uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County, WA: Modeling analysis

Background: The mass rollout of COVID vaccination in early 2021 allowed local and state authorities to relax mobility and social interaction regulations in spring 2021 including lifting all restrictions for vaccinated people and restoring in-person schooling. However, the emergence and rapid spread of highly transmissible variants combined with slowing down the pace of vaccination created uncertainty around the future trajectory of the epidemic. In this study we analyze the expected benefits of offering vaccination to children age 5-11 under differing conditions for in-person schooling. Methods: We adapted a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington, to handle multiple variants with increased transmissibility and virulence as well as differential vaccine efficacies against each variant. Reactive social distancing is implemented driven by fluctuations in the number of hospitalizations in the county. We simulate scenarios offering vaccination to children aged 5-11 with different starting dates and different proportions of physical interactions (PPI) in schools being restored. The impact of improving overall vaccination coverage among the eligible population is also explored. Cumulative hospitalizations, percentage reduction of hospitalizations and proportion of time at maximum social distancing over the 2021-2022 school year are reported. Findings: In the base-case scenario with 85% vaccination coverage of 12+ year-olds, our model projects 4945 (median, IQR 4622-5341) total COVID-19 hospitalizations and 325 (median, IQR 264-400) pediatric hospitalizations if physical contacts at schools are fully restored (100% PPI) for the entire school year compared to 3675 (median, IQR 2311-4725) and 163 (median, IQR 95-226) if schools remained closed. Reducing contacts in schools to 75% PPI or 50% PPI through masking, ventilation and distancing is expected to decrease the overall cumulative hospitalizations by 2% and 4% respectively and youth hospitalizations by 8% and 23% respectively. Offering early vaccination to children aged 5-11 with 75% PPI is expected to prevent 756 (median, IQR 301-1434) hospitalizations and cut hospitalizations in the youngest age group in half compared to no vaccination. It will largely reduce the need of additional social distancing over the school year. If, in addition, 90% overall vaccination coverage is reached, 60% of remaining hospitalizations will be averted and the need of extra mitigation measures almost certainly avoided. Conclusions: Our work highlights that in-person schooling is possible if reasonable precaution measures are taken at schools to reduced infectious contacts. Rapid vaccination of all school-aged children will provide meaningful reduction of the COVID health burden over this school year but only if implemented early. Finally, it remains critical to vaccinate as many people as possible to limit the morbidity and mortality associated with the current surge in Delta variant cases.

Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) to identify optimal sequences of telemedicine interventions for improving initiation of insulin therapy: A simulation study

Background To examine the value of a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) design compared to a conventional randomized control trial (RCT) for telemedicine strategies to support titration of insulin therapy for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients new to insulin. Methods Microsimulation models were created in R using a synthetic sample based on primary data from 63 subjects enrolled in a pilot study of a smartphone application (App), Diabetes Pal compared to a nurse-based telemedicine strategy (Nurse). For comparability, the SMART and an RCT design were constructed to allow comparison of four (embedded) adaptive interventions (AIs). Results In the base case scenario, the SMART has similar overall mean expected HbA1c and cost per subject compared with RCT, for sample size of n = 100 over 10,000 simulations. SMART has lower (better) standard deviations of the mean expected HbA1c per AI, and higher efficiency of choosing the correct AI across various sample sizes. The differences between SMART and RCT become apparent as sample size decreases. For both trial designs, the threshold value at which a subject was deemed to have been responsive at an intermediate point in the trial had an optimal choice (i.e., the sensitivity curve had a U-shape). SMART design dominates the RCT, in the overall mean HbA1c (lower value) when the threshold value is close to optimal. Conclusions SMART is suited to evaluating the efficacy of different sequences of treatment options, in addition to the advantage of providing information on optimal treatment sequences.

Developing migrants prototypes performance through bottom-up construction method

Natural and man-made disasters are vital issues that led to the increasing number of migrants, many of them stayed displaced for decades this requires more permanent dwellings. The main aim of the study is to investigate the impact of the bottom-up construction method on developing migrant’s shelters energy and thermal comfort performance. Dynamic simulation tool Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA ICE 4.8) has been used to assess nine different scenarios. The results quantified that the annually delivered energy and thermal comfort accepted hours of proposed scenario nine (S9) is better compared to base-case scenario one (S1) by 63% kWh and 4,215 h respectively. Methodologies and results of this paper can be adopted and applied for various places of the world affected by migration issue.

Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) To Identify Optimal Sequences Of Telemedicine Interventions For Improving Initiation of Insulin Therapy: A Simulation Study

Background: To examine the value of a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) design compared to a conventional randomized control trial (RCT) for telemedicine strategies to support titration of insulin therapy for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients new to insulin. Methods: Microsimulation models were created in R using a synthetic sample based on primary data from 63 subjects enrolled in a pilot study of a smartphone application (App), Diabetes Pal compared to a nurse-based telemedicine strategy (Nurse). For comparability, the SMART and an RCT design were constructed to allow comparison of four (embedded) adaptive interventions (AIs). Results: In the base case scenario, the SMART has similar overall mean expected HbA1c and cost per subject compared with RCT, for sample size of n = 100 over 10000 simulations. SMART has lower (better) standard deviations of the mean expected HbA1c per AI, and higher efficiency of choosing the correct AI across various sample sizes. The differences between SMART and RCT become apparent as sample size decreases. For both trial designs, the threshold value at which a subject was deemed to have been responsive at an intermediate point in the trial had an optimal choice (i.e., the sensitivity curve had a U-shape). SMART design dominates the RCT, in the overall mean HbA1c (lower value) when the threshold value is close to optimal. Conclusions: SMART is suited to evaluating the efficacy of different sequences of treatment options, in addition to the advantage of providing information on optimal treatment sequences.

Analysis of an Off-grid PV System for Disaster Mitigation Scheme in Remote Areas

The main objective of this paper is to present the techno-economic analysis of an off-grid Photovoltaic system, which prepared to support disaster mitigation scheme in remote areas. As a case study, a regency in Mentawai Island, Sumatera Barat is chosen to represent a remote area in a disaster-prone location. The proposed system capacity is 20 kWp PV system as a single electricity source for medical facility in the island. As a tool in this study, RETScreen software was used to analyze the technical, environmental, and economical feasibility analysis. As a base case scenario, the medical facility was supported by a diesel-fueled generator and the PV system can deliver 10.14 MWh of electricity to load annually. Net annual GHG emission reduction of the system is 19.4 ton of CO2 equivalent. With the total initial cost for the whole PV system at USD 41,380, RETScreen simulation result showed that the equity payback of the project is 6.0 years with IRR of 11.9% hence the project is financially viable.