Predicting Round and Game Winners in CSGO

Win probabilities have become a staple on scoreboards in physical sports such as baseball and basketball. Esports, or competitive video games with sponsored teams and major audiences, typically lack this detailed statistical analysis, beyond bare-bones metrics and commentator intuition. However, the advantage of esports in their tendency to have a central record of every game event makes them ripe for statistical analysis through machine learning. Previous research has covered popular video game genres such as MOBAs, and has found success in predicting game winners most of the time [1]. Counterstrike: Global Offensive (CSGO) is an esport that is unique in its round and game-based nature, allowing researchers to examine how short and long-term decisions can interplay in competitive environments. We introduce a dataset of CSGO games To assess factors such as player purchasing decisions and individual scores, we introduce 3 round and game win probability models. Finally, we evaluate the performances of the models. We successfully predict winners in the majority of cases, better than the map average baseline win statistics.

Entrepreneurship Workshop in Kampung Nelayan’s Community, Medan Belawan District

Approximately 600 families inhabit the Kampung Nelayan of Medan Belawan District; most of them work as fishermen. The people of Kampung Nelayan have limited facilities and relatively low knowledge of entrepreneurship which caused an inability to maximize the potential of marine natural resources and mangrove forest resources. Entrepreneurship workshop activities are carried out to equip the public to have a good knowledge of entrepreneurship, which is expected to generate and increase the spirit of entrepreneurship in utilizing and managing the potential of natural resources into high selling value products. The activities were carried out using a quasi-experimental one-group pretest-posttest approach. The results of the pretest and post-test were used to measure changes in participants knowledge. The results of the outreach activities showed that there was a change in participants entrepreneurial knowledge, marked by an increase in the average number of pretest and post-test scores. However, in terms of the number of individual scores, there were variations in participants' knowledge, namely increasing, constant, and decreasing. Following up on this result, it is necessary to conduct entrepreneurship assistance and workshops to implement knowledge in managing businesses and marketing them to improve the economy.

An Integrated Cybernetic Awareness Strategy to Assess Cybersecurity Attitudes and Behaviours in School Context

Digital exposure to the Internet among the younger generations, notwithstanding their digital abilities, has increased and raised the alarm regarding the need to intensify the education on cybersecurity in schools. Understanding of the human factor and its influence on children, namely their attitudes and behaviors online, is pivotal to reinforce their awareness towards cyberattacks, and to promote their digital citizenship. This paper aims to present an integrated cybersecurity and cyberawareness strategy composed of three major steps: (1) Cybersecurity attitude and behavior assessment, (2) self-diagnosis, and (3) teaching/learning activities. The following contributions are made: Two questionnaires to assess risky attitudes and behaviors regarding cybersecurity; a self-diagnosis to measure students’ skills on cybersecurity; a lesson plan addressing cyberawareness to be applied on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and citizenship education curricular units. Cybersecurity risky attitudes and behaviors were evaluated in a junior high school population of 164 students attending the sixth and ninth grades. The assessment focused on two main subjects: To identify the attitudes and behaviors that raise the risk on cybersecurity among the participating students; to characterize the acquired students’ cybersecurity and cyberawareness skills. Global and individual scores and the histograms for attitudes and behaviors are presented. The items in which we have observed significant differences between sixth and ninth grades are depicted and quantified by their corresponding p-values obtained through the Mann–Whitney non-parametric test. Regarding the results obtained on the assessment of attitudes and behaviors, although positive, we observed that the attitudes and behaviors in ninth grade students are globally inferior compared to those attained by sixth grade students. The deployed strategy for cyberawareness was applied in a school context; however, the same approach is suitable to be applied in other types of organizations, namely enterprises, healthcare institutions and public sector.

Comprehensive financial diagnostics of a potential bankruptcy of an organization

The article presents the directions of improving the methodological base for diagnosing a potential bankruptcy of an organization. The most relevant methodological approaches to the formation of a system of qualitative and quantitative characteristics that comprehensively reflect the effectiveness of the management of production and financial activities are highlighted. A model of a comprehensive assessment of potential bankruptcy using quantitative characteristics of the organization’s activities and individual scores of their significance is proposed. The necessity of using the coefficient of monetary profit from sales, which most realistically reveals the level of solvency of the company and possible signs of potential bankruptcy, is justified.

A Time-Incorporated SOFA-Based Explainable Machine Learning Model for Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Patients

Background: Organ dysfunction (OD) assessment is essential in intensive care units (ICUs). However, no OD scoring system has so far considered the duration of OD, which is clinically relevant. This study aimed to develop and validate an ICU mortality prediction model based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, incorporating the time dimension with machine learning methods.Methods: Data from the eICU Collaborative Research Database and Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) -III were mixed for model development, and the MIMIC-IV dataset and Nanjing Jinling Hospital Surgery ICU (SICU-JL) dataset were used for external testing. Adult patients in the ICUs for more than 72 hours were deemed eligible. The total SOFA score and individual scores were calculated every 12 hours for the first three days of ICU admission. Time-dimensional variables were derived from the consecutively recorded SOFA scores and individual scores for each organ. A modified SOFA model incorporating the time dimension (T-SOFA) was stepwise constructed to predict ICU mortality using multiple machine learning algorithms. The predictive performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Also, we utilized the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm for data visualization and model explainability.Results: We extracted a total of 66,709 ICU patients from the mixed datasets for model development and 15,423 patients for validation. The T-SOFA M3 that incorporated the time dimension features and age, using the XGBoost algorithm, significantly outperformed the original SOFA scores (AUROC 0.800 95% CI [0.787-0.813] vs. 0.693 95% CI [0.678-0.709], p<0.01) in the validation set. Good prediction performance was maintained for the T-SOFA M3 in test Set A and test Set B, with AUROC of 0.803, 95% CI[0.791-0.815], and 0.830, 95%CI [0.789-0.870], respectively. Significant contributors demonstrated by the SHAP analysis included total SOFA score, Respiration-score, CNS-score, age, Cardiovascular-score, and SOFA Organ dysfunction Unalleviated Time Index.Conclusions: A SOFA-based, time-incorporated prediction model was developed and validated by machine learning algorithms, showing satisfactory predictability and medical interpretability.

Evaluation of Plotting Position Formulae for Pearson Type 3 Distribution in Three Hydrological Stations on the Niger River

In this study, eight unbiased plotting position formulae recommended for Pearson Type 3 distribution were evaluated by comparing the simulated series of each formula with the annual maximum series (AMS) of River Niger at Baro, Koroussa and Shintaku hydrological stations, each having data length of 51years, 53 years and 58 years respectively. The parameters of Pearson Type 3 distribution were computed by the method of moments with corrections for skewness. While the fitting of Pearson Type 3 distribution proceeds with the development of flood – return period (Q-T) relationship, followed by application of the derived Q- T relation to compute simulated discharges for comparison with AMS of the study stations. The plotting position formulae were evaluated on the basis of optimum values of the statistically goodness-of-fit of probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), percent bias (PBIAS), mean absolute error (MAE) and Nash-sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), across the stations. The plotting position formulae were ranked on scale of 1 to 8. Thus a plotting formula that best simulates the empirical observations using the goodness-of-measures was scored “1” and so on. The individual scores per plotting position were summed across the gof tests to obtain the total score. The study show that Chegodayev is the best plotting position formula for Baro, Weibull is the best plotting position Formula for Kourassou and Shintaku hydrological stations. The overall performances of the eight plotting position formulae across the hydrological stations show that weibull distribution is the overall best having scored 27, seconded by Chegodayev with 30 and thirdly, Beard with 38. The Pearson Type 3 distribution had been found one of the best probability distribution model of flood flow in Nigeria and this study was conducted to gain in-depth knowledge of the distribution. Finally, this study recommends extension of the studies to Log-Pearson Type 3 distribution.

237 Incidence and Implications of Disparate Uterine and Ovarian Development Observed Among Heifers Evaluated During the Peripubertal Period

Rapid development in the reproductive tract occurs in the peripubertal period, with variable rates of development of reproductive tissues potentially resulting in perceived disparities in ovarian and uterine development at pre-breeding examination. Data collected from 22,173 heifers evaluated over five consecutive breeding seasons (2014–2018) were analyzed retrospectively to assess relationships between observed disparities in uterine and ovarian development and the timing of conception within the breeding season. Pre-breeding evaluations were conducted 35–45 days prior to breeding. Weight, hip height, and pelvic area were recorded. A single veterinarian conducted all reproductive evaluations via rectal palpation, and heifers were assigned individual scores for ovarian (2=infantile, 3=no significant structures, 4=large follicle and/or corpus luteum) and uterine (2=infantile, 3=mid-sized, distended tract, 4=well-vascularized, distended or coiled tract) development respectively. Heifers received artificial insemination (AI) based on detected estrus following the 14-day MGA-PG protocol. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed via transrectal ultrasonography. Pregnancy rates to AI (P/AI) were greater for scores 4-4 (n = 14,567) in comparison with 3-3 (n=3,941; P &lt; 0.0001) or 2-2 (n = 44; P &lt; 0.0001) and likewise were greater (P &lt; 0.0001) for scores 3-3 in comparison with 2-2. Heifers with disparate scores of 2–3 (n = 38) did not differ (P = 0.53) from those with disparate scores of 3-2 (n = 53) with respect to P/AI, but either disparity was associated with greater (P &lt; 0.01) P/AI relative to scores of 2-2 and reduced P/AI relative to scores of 3-3 (P &lt; 0.01). Scores of 4-3 (1,698) and 3-3 did not differ (P &gt;0.44) in P/AI, but P/AI tended (P = 0.06) to be greater among scores 3–4 (1,832) in comparison with 3-3. Similar (P &gt; 0.33) P/AI was observed among heifers scored 4-4, 4-3, or 3–4. In summary, disparate ovarian and uterine development impacted timing of conception within the breeding season among heifers with lower tract scores. Such disparities were observed among 0.4% of heifers evaluated.

S-GRAS score for prognostic classification of adrenocortical carcinoma: an international, multicenter ENSAT study

Objective: Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) has an aggressive but variable clinical course. Prognostic stratification based on ENSAT tumour stage and Ki67 index is limited. We aimed to demonstrate the prognostic role of a points-based score (S-GRAS) in a large cohort of patients with ACC. Design: Multicentre retrospective study on ACC patients who underwent adrenalectomy. Methods: The S-GRAS score was calculated as a sum of the following points: tumour Stage (1-2=0; 3=1; 4=2), Grade (Ki67 index 0-9%=0; 10-19%=1; ≥20%=2 points), Resection (R)-status (R0=0; RX=1; R1=2; R2=3), Age (<50yr=0; ≥50yr=1), Symptoms (no=0; yes=1), and categorised, generating four groups (0-1, 2-3, 4-5, and 6-9). Endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). The discriminative performance of S-GRAS and its components was tested by Harrell’s C-index and Royston-Sauerbrei’s R2D statistic. Results: We included 942 ACC patients. The S-GRAS score showed superior prognostic performance for both PFS and DSS, with best discrimination obtained using the individual scores (0-9) (C-index=0.73, R2D=0.30, and C-index=0.79, R2D=0.45, respectively, all P<0.01 vs each component). The superiority of S-GRAS score remained when comparing patients treated or not with adjuvant mitotane (n=481 vs 314). In particular, the risk of recurrence was significantly reduced as a result of adjuvant mitotane only in patients with S-GRAS 4-5. Conclusion: The prognostic performance of S-GRAS is superior to tumour stage and Ki67 in operated ACC patients, independently from adjuvant mitotane. S-GRAS score provides a new important guide for personalised management of ACC (i.e. radiological surveillance and adjuvant treatment).

Comparatively Investigation of the Quality of Preschool Education Environments in Turkey and the US

A quality preschool education plays a key role in achieving its objectives. To benefit from this effect of preschool education in a positive way, countries should investigate education systems and the educational methods and practices of other countries so as to understand the problems of education and the factors affecting it. This brings about the need to examine the indicators in regard to processes and structural elements in preschool education institutions. This paper focuses on examining the quality of preschool education classes in Turkey and in the United States comparatively. Descriptive research method was used in the research. Data were collected with ECERS-R in each three classes selected with convenience sampling from three kindergartens in Turkey and three kindergartens in the US. Total score achieved in this instrument and individual scores for seven subscales were examined. In line with the data obtained in this study, the total score of the three classes in kindergartens in the US was found to be higher than those in Turkey. As for the subscales, the classes of the kindergartens in Turkey were found to have higher scores of Language-Reasoning and Program Structure which are two subscales of the instrument. The findings were discussed in the light of the related literature.

Contested Perspective from Undergraduate Students and Teachers on Formative Assessment: A Qualitative Study

Background: The concept of "assessment for learning" has been widely defined as a form of assessment that facilitates students' learning. In an undergraduate setting, the concept is mostly applied on formative assessment as a form of repeated measurement followed by direct feedback. This study aims to explore the student's and teacher's perspectives about undergraduate formative assessment. Methods: We conducted a qualitative study with a phenomenological approach. Data collection saturated in six FGDs (N=44) from undergraduate students, two FGDs (N=15), followed by five in-depth interviews of teachers. The data transcripts were categorized and determined to the themes from teachers and students and a contested themes from teachers and students. Results: The subthemes interpreted from students such as (1) high concern on final scores, (2) no impact for next learning activities, (3) negative feedback is accepted as a consequence, (4) instructive feedback and explanation of material are preferable. The subthemes interpreted from teachers namely: (1) difficulty in determining individual scores; (2) students always need guidance; (3) feedback delivered related to the mastery of content. Finally, we interpreted the contested themes from students and teachers, namely (1) A "summative perception" of formative assessment, 2) The hierarchical relationships in providing feedback, and 3) The "teacher-centered" feedback delivery. Conclusion: We found that the contested perspective of students and teachers represents the score-based mindset as well as hierarchical and teacher-centered feedback in the Indonesian context of undergraduate formative assessment. Further research should be considered in the adaptation of a new paradigm in formative assessment.