Early Detection of Failed Bank Through Analysis of Financial Ratios and Bank Shareholders Ratios Using Data Mining For Rural Banks

This study aims to determine the effect of 8 bank financial ratios such as BOPO (operational efficiency ratio), CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), NPL (Non Performing Loan), ROA (Return On Assets), CR (Cash Ratio), KAP (quality of productive assets), PPAP (provision for loan losses) and LDR (Loan Deposit Ratio) and another ratio, namely Bank’s Shareholder ratio towards bank predictions whether a rural bank will be declared as failed bank or not. Eight financial ratios and another ratio that comparing BOD and BOC to Bank's Shareholders can be obtained from quarterly rural bank’s financial reports that have been published on the IFSA website from 2014 until 2018. The data in this research is approximately 1000 rural banks for training dataset. The method to predict rural bank become failed bank is data mining. The training dataset used is an imbalanced dataset. In order to be balanced, the SMOTE method is used. The balance dataset was then analyzed with the data mining process. The data mining methods used are KNN and Naïve Bayes, both are classification method.

Factors Affecting Total Risk in Banking Sector of Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

If a financial organization flops, it can impose an externality nationwide as a whole. Augmented globalization along with deregulation of financial organizations has not only given rise to competition, but it has also amplified the need for powerful policies to manage risk for the industry. Being cautious of elements which might direct to failure of banking organization support in future for evading losses by introducing preemptive initiatives to minimize damage caused by risk. This study analyzes the factors affecting total risk in banking sector of Pakistan using sample data from 2006 to 2013. The results revealed that the size of bank, financial leverage, liquidity, loan to asset ratio, growth in real GDP, supply of money and spread of interest rates all seem to be statistically significant with total risk faced by bank. However, the ratio of loan losses remained statistically insignificant. This study stresses the insertion of macroeconomic factor as a probable determining factor for total risk.

The Effect of Bundling Trade Association Monitoring and Female Board Representation on Loan Losses in Community Credit Unions

Loan book management is important to community credit union survival, particularly in deprived localities. Consistent with agency theory, prior studies of credit unions report an association among individual monitoring mechanisms, trade association monitoring, and female board representation, respectively, and reduced loan losses. This study provides a more nuanced understanding by investigating the moderating influence of these monitoring mechanisms on the relationship between loan losses and deprivation and by considering the effect of bundle combinations of different levels of the two monitoring mechanisms on loan losses. The results reveal that credit unions subject to trade association monitoring have the lowest loan losses. However, in the absence of trade association monitoring, female board representation has a moderating effect on loan losses as deprivation increases. Finally, trade association monitoring and female board representation have a substitutive, rather than a complementary effect on loan losses.

Using Loan Loss Indicators by Loan Type to Sharpen the Evaluation of Banks' Loan Loss Accruals

Prior research acknowledges that the determinants, timeliness, and economic implications of banks' provisions for loan losses (PLL) vary across loan types. However, the lack of machine-readable data on PLL by loan type has precluded researchers from incorporating loan type into the evaluation of PLL beyond either controlling for or partitioning the sample on crude proxies for loan portfolio composition. We calculate PLL by loan type as the change in the allowance for loan losses by loan type, which we hand collect from Form 10-K filings, plus net charge-offs by loan type, which we obtain from regulatory filings. Using these data, we show that prior findings that banks exercise discretion over PLL to smooth earnings and increase regulatory capital are driven by commercial loans, a thin slice of banks' loan portfolios, and that commonly used measures of PLL timeliness vary substantially across loan types.

A Visual Analytics Approach for Finding Geospatial and Temporal Patterns From covid19 Government Backed Business Support Scheme

Bounce Back Loan is amongst a number of UK business financial support schemes launched by UK Government in 2020 amidst pandemic lockdown. Through these schemes, struggling businesses are provided financial support to weather economic slowdown from pandemic lockdown. £43.5bn loan value has been provided as of 17th Dec2020. However, with no major checks for granting these loans and looming prospect of loan losses from write-offs from failed businesses and fraud, this paper theorizes prospect of applying spatiotemporal modelling technique to explore if geospatial patterns and temporal analysis could aid design of loan grant criteria for schemes. Application of Clustering and Visual Analytics framework to business demographics, survival rate and Sector concentration shows Inner and Outer London spatial patterns which historic business failures and reversal of the patterns under COVID-19 implying sector influence on spatial clusters. Combination of unsupervised clustering technique with multinomial logistic regression modelling on research datasets complimented by additional datasets on other support schemes, business structure and financial crime, is recommended for modelling business vulnerability to certain types of financial market or economic condition. The limitations of clustering technique for high dimensional is discussed along with relevance of an applicable model for continuing the research through next steps

Global financial changes and results in Latin America: à la carte selection of regulation

His article analyzes the implementation of the Basel II, II.5 and III rules in Latin American countries by means of specific banking regulations and finds that because the rules were not fully implemented, banks were then able to use some of the principles that give them room for regulatory arbitrage and facilitate illicit financial flows (IFFs). The Basel banking norms supposed that regulatory capital would be a minimum of 10.5%, but equity to asset ratios computed for big banks fell by 0.8% between 2005 and 2015 and provisions for loan losses on assets increased 0.6% in the same period. The on-demand implementation of these standards puts the region at the mercy of an underground globalization that favors IFFs.

Challenges of Banking Profitability in Eurozone Countries: Analysis of Specific and Macroeconomic Factors

Numerous factors affect the rate of return that a financial institution earns. Some of these factors include external forces that shape earnings performance and internal elements found in each financial institution. Policy implications are determined by the type of explanation and should be taken seriously. This paper classifies determinants of bank profitability as well as reviews existing literature on bank performance. The second section of this study quantifies how external factors and internal determinants have influenced the profitability of EU banks. This paper constructs fixed-effect models and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which sheds new light on understanding various factors influencing how the EU banking industry performs. The observation period was from 2012 to 2019, and the findings revealed that EU bank profitability is influenced by both external macroeconomic environment and management decisions. The results of this study suggest that equity to assets ratio (EA), Gap ratio, and GDP have a positive impact on bank profitability, while the loan to assets ratio (LA) and the provision for loan losses to total loans ratio (PLL/TL) hurt EU bank profitability. The empirical findings are consistent with the expected results, although, they are different from those of studies that investigated the structure-performance relationship of EU banks because they found that market share and concentration have a positive effect on bank profitability.

LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF TEACHERS DEPOSIT TAKING SAVINGS AND CREDIT COOPERATIVE SOCIETIES IN KENYA

Purpose: The study objective was to establish the effect of liquidity management on the financial performance of Teachers DT Saccos in Kenya and to evaluate the moderating effect of the size on liquidity management and financial performance of Teachers DT Saccos in Kenya. Methodology: This study adopted a post-positivist research paradigm to interpret the effect of liquidity management on the financial performance of deposit-taking Saccos in Kenya. The study adopted a descriptive, survey research design. The target population was 18 Saccos classified under teachers' based DT SACCOs according to SASRA records of December 2017 (SASRA, 2018). Census Methodology was used. The study used a data capture form that has been designed by the researcher to collect the data on the independent variables of liquidity management, moderator variable size and dependent variable which was DT Saccos financial Performance. Data were analysed using a combination of descriptive and inferential statistics with the statistical package STATA. Analysed data was presented using graphs and tables. Findings: The study established that there was a significant effect of capacity and purchased funds on the financial performance of Teachers DT Saccos. The study also established that cash position, total deposit, and core deposit had an insignificant effect on the financial performance of Teachers DT Saccos and that size of the Sacco affects the relationship between liquidity management and financial performance of Teachers DT Saccos. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommended the development of a more robust liquidity monitoring policy as well as enhancement of the oversight on liquidity management practices. The study also recommended that Teachers DT Saccos should reduce the provisions of loan losses as well as their reliance on external borrowing. Further, the study recommended future studies using other factors influencing liquidity in the Teachers DT Saccos. Lastly, the study recommends a comparative study using other financial intermediaries with similar deposit and asset features such as Deposit Taking Micro Finance Institutions.