Abstract
The increase in surface temperature and CO2 emissions are two of the most important issues in climate studies and global warming. The ‘Global Emissions 2021’ report identifies the six biggest contributors to CO2 emissions; China, USA, India, Russia, Japan, and Germany. The current study projects the increase in surface temperature and the CO2 emissions of these six countries by 2028. The EGM (1,1,α,θ) grey model is an even form of the model with a first order differential equation, that has one variable and a weightage background value that contains conformable fractional accumulation. The results show that while the CO2 emissions for Japan, Germany, USA and Russia show a downward projection, they are expected to increase in India and remain nearly constant in China by 2028. The surface temperature has been projected to increase at a significant rate in all these countries. By comparing with the EGM (1,1) grey model, the results show that the EGM (1,1, α, θ) model performs better in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. The paper also puts forward some policy suggestions to mitigate, manage and reduce increases in surface temperature as well as CO2 emissions.