Reassessing the evidence for universal school-age BCG vaccination in England and Wales: re-evaluating and updating a modelling study

ObjectivesIn 2005, England and Wales switched from universal BCG vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) disease for school-age children to targeted vaccination of neonates. We aimed to recreate and re-evaluate a previously published model, the results of which informed this policy change.DesignWe recreated an approach for estimating the impact of ending the BCG schools scheme, correcting a methodological flaw in the model, updating the model with parameter uncertainty and improving parameter estimates where possible. We investigated scenarios for the assumed annual decrease in TB incidence rates considered by the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and explored alternative scenarios using notification data.SettingEngland and Wales.Outcome measuresThe number of vaccines needed to prevent a single notification and the average annual additional notifications caused by ending the policy change.ResultsThe previously published model was found to contain a methodological flaw and to be spuriously precise. It greatly underestimated the impact of ending school-age vaccination compared with our updated, corrected model. The updated model produced predictions with wide CIs when parameter uncertainty was included. Model estimates based on an assumption of an annual decrease in TB incidence rates of 1.9% were closest to those estimated using notification data. Using this assumption, we estimate that 1600 (2.5; 97.5% quantiles: 1300, 2000) vaccines would have been required to prevent a single notification in 2004.ConclusionsThe impact of ending the BCG schools scheme was found to be greater than previously thought when notification data were used. Our results highlight the importance of independent evaluations of modelling evidence, including uncertainty, and evaluating multiple scenarios when forecasting the impact of changes in vaccination policy.

Increasing retractions of meta-analyses publications for methodological flaw

Purpose of this letter was to explore the trends regarding methodological flaws of systematic review and meta-analyses (SRMAs) based on retraction notes in the past decades, and the categories of reasons for the retractions. Content analysis with descriptive statistics, Cochran Q test, and multinomial logistic regression were used. Based on 187 records of retracted SRMAs, retraction announcements can be categorized into academic ethical violation, methodological flaw, and writing or reporting problem. The numbers of academic ethical violation were significantly higher than those with methodological flaw (z = 3.51; p < 0.01) or writing problem (z = 8.58; p < 0.001). The numbers of methodological flaw were also higher than that with writing problem (z = 6.47; p < 0.001). Moreover, an increased proportion of methodological flaw was observed since 2006, and the retraction year was significantly associated with increased proportion of methodological flaw when academic ethical violation as the reference group.

The phenomenon of Jihad in Islam

Based on a critical analysis of the definitions of Jihad in popular science, dictionary refer-ence, commentary, and educational literature, the article establishes the methodological flaw of the abstract, one-sided representation of Jihad exclusively as a call to Muslims to wage a "Holy war". It concludes that such a one-sided definition of Jihad, imposed on the world community by Western Islamism, which is critical of everything Muslim, is used by the inspirers of interna-tional terrorism as a religious justification for the need to wage an armed war against non-believers and apostates. Understanding the Quranic provisions about Jihad, the historical en-richment of the content of Jihad, the various forms and varieties of its manifestation allows the authors to outline methodologically verified research principles and offer a conceptual defini-tion of Jihad that expresses its deep essence. The article defines Jihad as an Islamic phenome-non that consists in the concentration of consciousness, will, desires, and efforts of every Mus-lim and the entire Islamic Ummah in General to strengthen the faith in the One Allah, to protect and spread this faith, and to subordinate personal and public life to the requirements of Islam. This deep essence of Jihad is manifested in the most diverse efforts made by believers on the path of Islam, in the zeal that contributes to the qualitative improvement of the Muslim Ummah, its quantitative growth. The author of the article considers it inappropriate to claim that the religious phenomenon named by the Arabic term "Jihad" is exclusively an Islamic phenomenon. He puts forward the thesis that, although the term "Jihad" is used only in Islam to express the concentration of all ef-forts of Muslims on the path of establishing faith in the One Allah, a similar phenomenon occurs in other religions. The selfless service of Muslims to Islam should not become the basis for its characterization as a bloodthirsty religion associated with wars, battles, violence, suicides, and other negative aspects, since no religious and cult system can be established, strengthened, and spread except on the basis of the diligent service of its adherents.

Watt’s View on Muslim Heritage in The Study of Other Religions: A Critical Analysis

This paper examines a writing of the late William Montgomery Watt’s (1909-2006) monumental work entitled Muslim-Christian Encounters: Perceptions and Misperceptions that is related to the legacy of study of religions. The authors emphasize on Watt’s important claim that due to Muslims’ tradition of Islamic self-sufficiency or showing no interest in studying doctrines of other religions, has led to the dearth of literatures in the field. This study employed a qualitative methodology in which the textual analysis approach was applied on Watt’s writing. The findings indicate that there are seven examples provided by Watt to strengthen his notion of Islamic self-sufficiency, each of whom has methodological flaw and opens room for criticism and improvement.

Sectarian Discrimination in Local Councils and Myth-Making

Scottish local authorities have been accused of sectarianism in hiring policies because the proportion of workers who declare their religion as Catholic falls below the Catholic proportion of the population as a whole. This rejoinder points out the methodological flaw of drawing conclusions from such incomplete data and presents an alternative way of interpreting the partial statistics. It also notes that, with the high proportion of Labour councillors who are Catholic and the Labour party's history of council control, such discrimination is highly unlikely. Finally, it draws on classic liberalism to defend workers’ refusal to declare their religion.