The Unequal Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Subway Ridership during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Seoul, South Korea

In the Republic of Korea, social distancing policies relied on voluntary participation by citizens and exhibited short-term changes. In this situation, the effects of such policies varied depending on each community’s capacity to comply. Here, we collected subway ridership data for 294 stations on nine Seoul Metro lines and aggregated the data for each station to the 184 smallest administrative areas. We found that the mean percent change in subway ridership was fitted by an additive model of the log-transformed percent ratio of the restaurant industry (estimated degrees of freedom (EDF) = 3.24, P < 0.001), the Deprivation Index (DI) (EDF = 3.66, P = 0.015), and the proportion of essential workers (β = − 0.10 (95% confidence interval − 0.15 to − 0.05, P < 0.001). We found a distinct decrease in subway ridership only in the least deprived areas, suggesting that social distancing is costly.

Effects of statin therapy on coronary plaque volume by decreasing CRP/hsCRP levels: A meta-regression of randomized controlled trials

Background and aims: Several clinical trials have indicated that statins stabilize and reverse atherosclerotic plaque. However, different studies have provided inconsistent findings regarding mechanisms and influencing factors of plaque regression under statin therapy. In this study, meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to determine the effect of statin medication on coronary plaque volume as determined by intravenous ultrasound. Meanwhile, the impact of statins on CRP/hsCRP reduction on plaque regression was discussed. Methods: Up to May 28, 2021, a systematic PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane search was performed for randomized controlled trials that assessed treatment effect using total atheroma volume (TAV), percent atheroma volume (PAV), or plaque volume (PV). Only CRP/hsCRP and LDL-C values reported before and after treatment were considered. Results: 12 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the systematic review. Compared with control groups, meta-analysis of 15 statin-treated arms reported change of TAV/PV showed standardized mean difference (SMD) at -0.27 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: -0.42, -0.12). Meta-analysis of 7 studies reported change of PAV revealed SMD at -0.16 (95% CI: -0.29, -0.03). Meta-regression analysis revealed percent change of CRP/hsCRP statistically influences SMD in change of TAV/PVafter adjusting for percent change of LDL-C, age and gender. Meta-regression analysis showed that percent change of CRP/hsCRP statistically influences SMD in change of PAV. Conclusion: In conclusion, statin therapy is beneficial for plaque regression. Statins promote plaque regression through their anti-inflammatory ability while lowering LDL-C is unaffected. Keywords: Statins; Reduction of atherosclerosis; C-reactive protein; Randomized controlled trial; Meta-analysis

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Surgical Wait Times for Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery in Ontario

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 on surgical wait times for Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (PRS) in Ontario, Canada. Methods: Ontario's wait time data has fourteen reporting categories for PRS. For each category, the mean wait time for consultation and for surgery were reported. Each category was given a priority ranging from 1 to 4. Two periods, three-month and six-month, were selected and compared to the same calendar months of the previous year. Wait times, surgical volume and percent change to the provincial wait time target were reported and compared to the baseline data. Results: This study reviewed 9563 consults and 15,000 operative cases. There was a 50% reduction in the volume of surgical consults during the study period compared to the baseline period (P = 0.004). The reduction ranged from 46% to 75% based on the reporting category. The volume of surgical cases decreased by 43% during the study period compared to the baseline period (P = 0.005). A statistically significant increase in the mean wait times for surgery was observed, involving priorities 2 to 4 (overall mean = 32 days, P ≤ 0.01). There was a 15% decrease in the percentage of surgeries meeting the provincial target times (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: COVID-19 has caused a significant reduction in the volume of cases performed in the majority of PRS categories with an overall increase in the wait times for consultation and for surgery. Recovery following COVID-19 will require strategies to address the growing volume of cases and wait times for surgery across all PRS categories.

Impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on outcomes in a rural Ugandan neonatal unit: A retrospective cohort study

Background During the early COVID-19 pandemic travel in Uganda was tightly restricted which affected demand for and access to care for pregnant women and small and sick newborns. In this study we describe changes to neonatal outcomes in one rural central Ugandan newborn unit before and during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We report outcomes from admissions captured in an electronic dataset of a well-established newborn unit before (September 2019 to March 2020) and during the early COVID-19 period (April–September 2020) as well as two seasonally matched periods one year prior. We report excess mortality as the percent change in mortality over what was expected based on seasonal trends. Findings The study included 2,494 patients, 567 of whom were admitted during the early COVID-19 period. During the pandemic admissions decreased by 14%. Patients born outside the facility were older on admission than previously (median 1 day of age vs. admission on the day of birth). There was an increase in admissions with birth asphyxia (22% vs. 15% of patients). Mortality was higher during COVID-19 than previously [16% vs. 11%, p = 0.017]. Patients born outside the facility had a relative increase of 55% above seasonal expected mortality (21% vs. 14%, p = 0.028). During this period patients had decreased antenatal care, restricted transport and difficulty with expenses and support. The hospital had difficulty with maternity staffing and supplies. There was significant community and staff fear of COVID-19. Interpretation Increased newborn mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic at this facility was likely attributed to disruptions affecting maternal and newborn demand for, access to and quality of perinatal healthcare. Lockdown conditions and restrictions to public transit were significant barriers to maternal and newborn wellbeing, and require further focus by national and regional health officials.

Percent change in apparent diffusion coefficient and plasma EBV DNA after induction chemotherapy identifies distinct prognostic response phenotypes in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background To evaluate the prognostic value of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) derived from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and monitor the early treatment response to induction chemotherapy (IC) with plasma EBV DNA in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC). Results A total of 307 stage III-IVb NPC patients were prospectively enrolled. All patients underwent MRI examinations to calculate ADC and plasma EBV DNA measurements pretreatment and post-IC. The participants’ ADC value of 92.5% (284/307) increased post-IC. A higher percent change in ADC value (ΔADC%high group) post-IC was associated with a higher 5-year OS rate (90.7% vs 74.9%, p < 0.001) than those in the ΔADC%low group. Interestingly, ΔADC% was closely related to the response measured by RECIST 1.1 (p < 0.001) and plasma EBV DNA level (p = 0.037). The AUC significantly increased when post-IC plasma EBV DNA was added to ΔADC% to predict treatment failure. Thus, based on ΔADC% and plasma EBV DNA, we further divided the participants into three new prognostic response phenotypes (early response, intermediate response, and no response) that correlated with disparate risks of death (p = 0.001), disease progression (p < 0.001), distant metastasis (p < 0.001), and locoregional relapse (p < 0.001). Conclusion The percentage change in ADC post-IC is indicative of treatment response and clinical outcome. ΔADC% and plasma EBV DNA-based response phenotypes may provide potential utility for early termination of treatment and allow guiding risk-adapted therapeutic strategies for LA-NPC.

Hospital Use and Mortality in Transition-Aged Patients With Sickle Cell Disease

OBJECTIVES Childhood mortality in sickle cell disease (SCD) has decreased, but the transition period is associated with poor outcomes and higher mortality rates. We analyzed recent US hospitalizations and mortality trends in the transition-aged population and evaluated for differences between patients with and without SCD. METHODS Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was used to analyze hospitalizations among individuals aged 16 to 24 years from 2003 to 2017. Diagnoses were coded by using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification and International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification. We performed bivariate analyses to assess associations between sociodemographic characteristics and SCD hospitalizations, joinpoint regression analysis to describe mortality rate trends in SCD hospitalizations, and adjusted survey logistic regression to assess associations between patient characteristics and in-hospital mortality among transition-aged SCD and non-SCD-related hospitalizations. RESULTS There were 37 344 532 hospital encounters of patients aged 16 to 24 years during 2003–2017; both SCD and non-SCD hospitalizations increased with age. Female patients accounted for 78% of non-SCD and 54.9% of SCD hospitalizations. Although there was a +3.2% average annual percent change in SCD hospitalizations, total SCD in-hospital mortality rates did not have a statistically significant increase in average annual percent change over the study period. Patients with SCD aged 19 to 21 and 22 to 24 were more likely to suffer in-hospital mortality than those aged 16 to 18 (odds ratio = 2.09 and 2.71, respectively); the increased odds in mortality by age were not seen in our non-SCD population. CONCLUSIONS Transition-aged hospitalizations increase with age, but SCD hospitalizations have disparate age-related mortality rates. Hospital-based comprehensive care models are vital to address the persistent burden of early adulthood mortality in SCD.

Future incidence and mortality of colorectal carcinoma in the United States: an updated overview of risk factors and preventative measures

According to the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2020, colorectal carcinoma (CRC) was the second leading cause of cancer death globally. Current literature utilizes reported databases such as Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) to better understand the epidemiology of CRC. The global cancer observatory’s “Cancer Tomorrow” data visualization tools was used to predict the future incidence and mortality of colorectal cancers until 2030 as a guided tool to look over ways to reduce incidence by controlling risk factors of CRC. The total number of CRC is expected to rise by 2030, with a percent change of 17.3%. The expected percent change in colon cancer is more than rectal cancer (19.8% vs. 11.6%). The estimated number of deaths secondary to CRC is expected to increase in 2030, an estimated percent change of 22.2%. The incidence and mortality rate was higher in men vs. women; however, the gap seems to be closing on trend analysis. Major risk factors for CRC include familial syndromes, family history, race, gender, obesity, diet, alcohol, and smoking. Risk can be reduced by exercise and dietary changes, fiber intake, vitamin D, calcium, and minerals. Individualized screening based on age, gender, and additional risk factors could be an option that needs further comparative data to propose a definitive benefit over established screening guidelines.

CTNI-14. EVALUATING METABOLIC ALTERATIONS IN PATIENTS WITH EGFR ACTIVATED RECURRENT GLIOBLASTOMA (RGBM) BY INHIBITING EGFR WITH OSIMERTINIB

BACKGROUND EGFR activated GBM is highly metabolically active and effective targeting with EGFR TKis in human-tumor models rapidly attenuates glucose metabolism engaging apoptotic machinery. Rapid changes in glucose uptake using 18F-FDG-PET is an effective predictive biomarker of therapeutic response in these models. Clinical 18F-FDG-PET may allow investigators to obtain early readout on EGFR TKi in this patient population. We explore this approach using osimertinib in EGFRamp/p53wt rGBM. METHODS EGFRamp/p53wt rGBM patients were treated with oral osimertinib 240mg for three days followed by 160mg/day until progression. F18-FDG-PET scan was obtained as a double baseline, 24 hours apart, prior to dosing with osimertinib. Third scan was obtained after 3 doses of 240mg. Primary objective defines test-retest variance of tumor FDG uptake before osimertinib and to evaluate if osimertinib significantly decreases glucose utilization after three doses. Study-drug and funding provided by AstraZeneca. RESULTS 12 pts were evaluated, 10 female, median age 57.5 years (44-61). Volumetric mRANO showed no responses, 6 SD, 5 PD, and one NE. Median PFS was 31 days, no patient achieved 6-month-PFS and median OS was 5.5 months. No new adverse event signal appeared. Double baseline PET SUV mean was 0.97 (normalized to whole cerebellum) with upward trend from first to second scan with mean percent change of 2.8 and 95% CI(0.7,5.1). Change in PET from 2nd to 3rd showed mean percent change -3.2 with 95% CI (-11.1,4.8). Preclinical models suggest 15-20% attenuation is needed to predict improved outcomes in patients treated with EGFR-TKi. CONCLUSION F18-FDG-PET has little variance with test-retest showing upward trend with second scan. Post osimertinib F18-FDG-PET shows limited attenuation of tumor FDG uptake. No clinical signal was seen in study. Deeper attenuation of FDG uptake may be needed to show clinical effect from EGFR inhibitors. F18-FDG-PET can be used to evaluate change in tumor glucose utilization.

154. Antibiotic Use During Three Separate Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic at a Large Academic Medical Center in Detroit, MI

Background Inpatient antibiotic use early on in the COVID-19 pandemic may have increased due to the inability to distinguish between bacterial and COVID-19 pneumonia. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of COVID-19 on antimicrobial usage during three separate waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of patients admitted to Detroit Medical Center between 3/10/19 to 4/24/21. Median days of therapy per 1000 adjusted patient days (DOT/1000 pt days) was evaluated for all administered antibiotics included in our pneumonia guidelines during 4 separate time periods: pre-COVID (3/3/19-4/27/19); 1st wave (3/8/20-5/2/20); 2nd wave (12/6/21-1/30/21); and 3rd wave (3/7/21-4/24/21). Antibiotics included in our pneumonia guidelines include: amoxicillin, azithromycin, aztreonam, ceftriaxone, cefepime, ciprofloxacin, doxycycline, linezolid, meropenem, moxifloxacin, piperacillin-tazobactam, tobramycin, and vancomycin. The percent change in antibiotic use between the separate time periods was also evaluated. Results An increase in antibiotics was seen during the 1st wave compared to the pre-COVID period (2639 [IQR 2339-3439] DOT/1000 pt days vs. 2432 [IQR 2291-2499] DOT/1000 pt days, p=0.08). This corresponded to an increase of 8.5% during the 1st wave. This increase did not persist during the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic, and the use decreased by 8% and 16%, respectively, compared to the pre-COVID period. There was an increased use of ceftriaxone (+6.5%, p=0.23), doxycycline (+46%, p=0.13), linezolid (+61%, p=0.014), cefepime (+50%, p=0.001), and meropenem (+29%, p=0.25) during the 1st wave compared to the pre-COVID period. Linezolid (+39%, p=0.013), cefepime (+47%, p=0.08) and tobramycin (+47%, p=0.05) use remained high during the 3rd wave compared to the pre-COVID period, but the use was lower when compared to the 1st and 2nd waves. Figure 1. Antibiotic Use 01/2019 to 04/2019 Conclusion Antibiotics used to treat bacterial pneumonia during the 1st wave of the pandemic increased and there was a shift to broader spectrum agents during that period. The increased use was not sustained during the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic, possibly due to the increased awareness of the differences between patients who present with COVID-19 pneumonia and bacterial pneumonia. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Ambient air pollution exposure and thyroid cancer incidence in Iran

Introduction: Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignant that is three times more prevalent in women than men. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been indicated to affect Thyroid Hormone (TH) homeostasis. We sought to estimate the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of thyroid cancer in the Iranian female population. Materials and methods: We extracted thyroid cancer incidence and ambient air pollution data from Iran from 2000 to 2019 for males and females for all age groups from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. We entered the data into Joinpoint to present Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) and its confidence intervals. We entered the information into R3.5.0. Results: Thyroid cancer in females had an upward trend [AAPC=4.9% (4.2-5.6)]. There was a correlation between ambient PM pollution (p≤0.001, r=0.84) and ambient ozone pollution (p≤0.001, r=0.94), and the incidence of thyroid cancer in females. The results of the analysis also showed a significant relationship between thyroid cancer incidence in females and secondhand smoke (p≤0.001, r=0.74). Conclusion: This study indicated increasing trends in thyroid cancer incidence with exposure to ambient air pollution. Our novel findings provide additional insight into the potential associations between risk factors and thyroid cancer and warrant further investigation, specifically in areas with high levels of air pollution both nationally and internationally. However, causal relationships cannot be fully supported via ecological studies, and this article only focuses on Iran.